Emo Area.
Frances Emerson is well on her way to be the second elected in June. The indications at this stage and her projected first count numbers for the Portarlington / Killenard shows that she will suprise many.
Those who said that I gave her bad advise some months ago, were clearly not aware of a number of factors, mostly local that are working to her advantage.
How it plays out after this in Emo I can't say but take it from me Deegan and Emerson will be the only two smiling after the first count and it will be knife edge between the
FF candidates on who is strong enough to benefit from eliminations.
Aiden Mullens would have been a very formiable candidate if he had been on an Independent ticket, that is the word that keeps coming through. Well liked and highly respected but the
SF tag is making it easy for certain sectors in Port to pass him over.
So I cannot call seat 3 and 4 but forget about Cribben retaing his seat without difficulty. The number of candidates standing in Port, the anti
FF sentiment, the anti Ray Cribben / Liam McMahon (Pine Villas etc) over shoddy developments in Portarlingon may see hardcore
FF supporters move to Murphy and if Cribben looses
FF/GAA votes in places like Emo / Courtwood to McEvoy well then you are talking change.
While on paper
FG should romp home with two seats, this will depend on a number of factors and at this stage, no definate trend emerging indicating that it has the two seats in the bag.
The Elimination process is going to play a big role in the final seats, so candidates need two things to be in with a chance: 1. enought number one to keep away from the bottom - early elimination; and 2. ability to attract second and third preference votes from as many of the other candidates as possible.
If you have four or five candidates likely to be eliminated before seat 3 is filled (with so many candidates in this race this is possible) then the eliminations will be a major beneficitory to those candidates that can attract cross party preferences.
So: 1

eegan 2:Emerson 3:
FF 4: ?
Michael Moloney MCC (Indep) Laois CC