Laois local elections 2009

[wiseowl]

since i last posted on this long thread, not a lot has changed. glad to see mmoloney giving honests opinions, as always, and i suppose michael is going to keep us hanging on before he decides where to run. my guess is tinnahinch again.

i see no independents surfacing in either borris or luggancurran, so we can call them 3fg, 3ff in borris and 2fg, 2ff in luggacurran....with fleming taking the 2nd ff seat there. still not sure who will take the 3rd ff seat in borris....any idea michael on what the final ff line up will be in that district.

portlaoise is wide open, because of 2 reasons, a strong fg ticket may yield 3 seats, and a weak ff ticket...the late joe dunne was mr ff in portlaoise and the ff organisation were sleepwalking and piggybacking on the popularity of joe for years. the chickens are now coming home to roost and they may scramble 2 seats. someone said earlier jerry lodge was the hardest working public rep in laois...that poster ought to be getting treatment for substance abuse!.........stanley and jacob are safe seats, and labour chaos may enable fg take seat 7...so 3fg,2ff, 1 ind, 1sf.

emo looks a minefield...i predict that deegan will romp home on the first count, i predict he will have a minimum of 200 more first preferences than any other candidate...after that the other 3 seats are in play....ff will win one.....i cannot see mitchell retaining his seat so favour emerson over mullins for the non ff/fg seat......then the last seat will go to either the 2nd fg or 2nd ff runner....the way the wind is blowing fg have to be the favs despite mulhall not looking a strong candidate.......as mm points out, past results suggest that sf will not pick up enough first preferences in an urban/rural district to be competitive....in times of crisis, smaller and perceived insignificant parties like sf get squeezed...sf supporters are eternal optimists, and save for a few good personality candidates like stanley, i think they fail to recognise that the sf project in the south has stalled and may in effect be dead in the water.

tinnahinch...another minefield....there will be 2 ff or ff flavoured returned(and i do fancy mm in that latter category)...fg will win at least 1, and the final seat will be the battle of all battles.....that final seat could be all about where the later preferences of the former borris area voters go...that chunk of 700 ex borris area voters due to lack of numbers cannot elect one of their own(such as lalor), however their preferences will be crucial...i cannot envisage many of them voting down the line for bowe so that may count against him, and it may be a 50-50 toss up between fg and ff for the last seat.

finally i do hope the nigerian tc in portlaoise loses his seat, his failure to respond to relevant questioning about his past deserves a good tonking by the electorate.

[willoughby]

Only five seats in Borris now so cant be 3fg , 3ff

[Trans-Siberian]

From my analysis I can't see Aiden making the cut. Look, I know the SF boys are saying this it is going to do well in June but lets get real, in the GE of 2007 Brian Stanley could only muster 3,653 in all of Laois and Offaly out of an electorate of 103,673 with a V.P.of 71,491 so that when you take out his base vote in Portlaoise and then when you sprinkle out the balance of the vote across the remainer of the Dail constituency, SF is not fit to pull a seat in any other area in Laois, not by a mile.

A good personal performence by Aiden in Port plus the vote scattered in the remainder of the Emo E.A., will give Aiden/ SF a very respectable vote on the day.



Well this is what you said above.............


As Maggie T once said 'Emerson is not for turning'



As things stand I would concur with this as regards any of the Partys, even 'Old Nick' does play a role from time to time.


Michael Moloney MCC (Indep) Laois CC

I will admit those figures dont lie!But I do think there are people who would not vote SF in the GE because of the candidte. Now the have a choice
Politics can be alot about personality.That said im writing this and watchin Willie o Dea on the box! and how many votes dis he get!

[Michael Moloney MCC(I)]

Only five seats in Borris now so cant be 3fg , 3ff

No its now a six seater, it was a seven the results in 2004 were FG 3 FF 3 Lab 1.

Michael Moloney MCC (Indep) Laois CC

[Michael Moloney MCC(I)]

i see no independents surfacing in either borris.....

I'll give you something to think about overnight; I received a call today from a former FF County Councillor who asked me to let the media know that he would be standing as an Independent in June and for me to give them his phone number so that they could phone him for a statement. As you can appricate, it is not for me to make the announcement, I passed on exactly as he asked.

Michael Moloney MCC (Indep) Laois CC

[teach09]

Michael, May I ask in what electoral area he is running?

[Michael Moloney MCC(I)]

That said im writing this and watchin Willie o Dea on the box! and how many votes dis he get!

Just think of having to look at him everyday for three years, which was my faith in Ballyfin back from 1968 to 71 and he is as s... as ever.
Actually later he was again ahead of me in Belfied and this day a guy with me in the queue on the stairwell into the canteen said to me that O'Dea intends to get into the Dail. You can surmise my reaction, but as you said he can hoodwink a mighty lot of folks down in Limerick!


Michael Moloney MCC (Indep) Laois CC

[Michael Moloney MCC(I)]

Michael, May I ask in what electoral area he is running?

You may'teach09' and I am saying that I have not come to a decision on this for a few reasons and as I said in an earlier post, the reasons will be apparent / explained when I make the decision.


Michael Moloney MCC (Indep) Laois CC

[Swingingdoor]

"I don't do deals with Shinners."
I hope this quote does not come back to haunt Councillor Moloney after June.
The local media should be made aware of this quote and if the Councillor is to be trusted then he should be pinned down on this

[Michael Moloney MCC(I)]

"I don't do deals with Shinners."
I hope this quote does not come back to haunt Councillor Moloney after June.
The local media should be made aware of this quote and if the Councillor is to be trusted then he should be pinned down on this

I will be only to happy to bring it to the local media's attention, you might not believe it but some of us do have principles, and I do not compromise on my firmly held beliefs, ask FF. Should I make it back, to decide to continue sitting alone on the lower benches of the council chamber or not be able to live with myself does not warrent a second thought.

You apparently did not read the posts from yesterday:

But out of the entire SF line up going this time Mullins is the best by far.

Im sure you would have no problem sitting beside him in County hall

My reply:

I was chatting with Aiden..... We all on the council have a duty to do this, however I do have a big problem with Sinn Fein and its modus operandii, thats for another forum.

Forgive me 'Swingingdoor, but I do know what I'm about.

Michael Moloney MCC (Indep) Laois CC