Laois local elections 2009

[Kate P]

Low life ?. This forum is for people to offer their opinion and bounce ideas around. I will of course check out the material you suggested and take it on board. As for John Moloney, I will say this He has really delivered for Mountmellick. oh yes it looks like its in the 1920s.

I was glad to see sean fleming retain his seat I have always found him down to earth and willing to talk to anyone regargless of their status.
The mounmellick ff are differant,. The week cowen took over from bertie the taxi men staged a protest in portlaoise about the lack of taxi spaces. J moloney was on the radio as was a spokeman for the taximen. moloney said to him "your not even from Laois " Nor is a great deal of the population of the county.

I wish kate p and the rest of her ff collegues the best of luck next year

Dear oh dear, Hillwalker, you do jump to conclusions, don't you? I've no idea where you got the notion that I'm in FF - because I'm not. As someone who knows all five of the TDs sitting in Laois Offaly and quite a few of the ones who didn't make it last time around , I can say that your description of Seán Fleming would apply to virtually any of them.

I was under the impression that this thread was about the upcoming election - not the individuals who have an interest in discussing it.

Has John Moloney delivered for Mountmellick? It's an old town with a long history. I drove through it the other day and, if it's not damning the place with faint praise, I'd say it can hold its own with almost any town in the constituency. Your saying that it's like it's still in the 20s is a little anachronistic, since it has the greatest collection of Georgian fanlights outside of Dublin. Physically it may look like it's from another era, but you forget that the biggest employer in Laois - the MDA is in the town, and in terms of social development, it's streets ahead of virtually all other towns in the county. You could just as easily ask what Fleming has brought to Mountrath and Castletown or Charlie Flanagan to Portlaoise or Olwyn Enright to Tullamore - though she has been particularly good on the JPC and you'd be hard-pressed to find solid examples.

Moloney was probably behind an extensive sewerage project in the town a number of years ago though - he campaigned long and hard for it and without that work, the town could never have sustained the growth in population that it has seen in recent times.

Mountmellick also is the only town outside of Portlaoise to have a town council which is very active and, if you read the papers and listen to the radio, you'll know that they have achieved rather a lot in the last while. While it might be FF top heavy, two of the busiest and hardest working reps are Rosie Whelan and Bobby Delaney. Rosemary in particular is an outstanding worker in the community, and while I'm not a member of FG either, I hope that if she did run for the county council she'd get elected because whatever colour she is, it's not yellow. Likewise Paddy Buggy, who despite considerable work last time, didn't make it.

Of course, if you have a particular gripe, you might as well get it out there so we can deal with it and move on. Otherwise, as I say, we could just discuss the politics.

[Michael Moloney MCC(I)]

Expect to see details of an new Independent Candidate in the local press tomorrow. Top class who no doubt will be written off by the Political Parties and the commentators, but I have little doubt that this will be the start of a long career in politics.

Michael Moloney MCC (I) Laois CC

[wiseowl]

ok here is my first input to this 2009 debate, bearing in mind that FG reached its near maximum call last time, the PD's are past tense, and the voters (even some of the redneck loyals) are waiting to punish FF, this is how the election will pan out, come back next summer and I will be proved correct.

by electoral area:

BORRIS:
down from 7 to 6 seats.
FG will win 3 without question, I assume the current 3 remain, M Lalor may top the poll
FF will also retain 2 of their 3, Phelan & Fennelly are safe. Dont know who will be the other candidates for FF, maybe Murphy from Durrow may finally come good, although FF need to field a mountrath/camross candidate or else they could lose a slice of votes, so I predict a return for eddie kirwan and he may win the 3rd FF seat.........FF would possibly be in trouble should an independent/issue candidate arose.
Labour are dead in the water in this district, more than 50% of larry kavanaghs was a personal non party vote, and the labour runner from rathdowney will struggle to get half a quota and the seat will be lost.

LUGGACURREN
more of the same 2FG 2FF, no chance of FF recapturing the 3rd seat.

PORTLAOISE
goes from 6 to 7
willie aird is a banker to top the poll and FG are sure of 2 seats
FF will retain 2 with Catherine Fitz and Jerry Lodge
SF comfortably retain 1 and Tom Jacob will hold his one as well.

the "new" seat in this district is up for grabs...i would dismiss FF because Jack Nolan the likely 3rd runner is a poor vote getter, he has rubbed up too many people over the years. FG has a shout for a third seat but they would need lucky transfer patterns to land the spoils.

This 7th seat ought to fall to labour, that party has not got a clue in laois and a one candidate policy in portlaoise may gain them the seat, they will likely run 2 candidates and mess it up completely.
there is no 2nd seat for SF, so the door is ajar for another independent, could a foreigner slip in?.....if ml moloney switches to this district he will lose out.....so the call on the final seat a.n. other(independent), Lab, FG in that order


mountmellick

in reality a 3FF 1FG at the moment....Ml Moloney is FF light/genepool

I predict a one seat loss for FF or its genepool in this district.....either FG or SF may nick the seat.......i would not be surprised if 2 of the 3 sitting FF's lost their seats, as Digan may benefit from the tinkering with the boundaries and he may get back in...........i dont see O Brien doing much in this district, his transfers may decide the final seat....my call 2FF 2FG.


Emo
1FF, 1PD, IFG, I Ind at moment
PD rip = A one seat gain for FF, quite possibly their only gain in the county.


so in summary: on a party basis
FF(Plus the genepool(Moloney)) have 11 seats....they will gain one in Emo, lose one in Mountmellick and their 3rd seat in Borris could be in trouble. Max outcome 11 seats.

FG have 9 at present....all safe seats......best prospect of a gain in Mountmellick, outside chance at 3rd in Portlaoise.

Lab: one now, only chance of winning a seat, the new 7th seat in Portlaoise

SF: one now, a squeak at a second one in Mountmellick

PD: one to zero

Ind: 2 now, turley and jacob and both safe to return in 2009, possibilities that issue/independents could surface and with the right backing could cause trouble for FF in Borris and Portlaoise...in fact that final seat in portlaoise is at the mercy of an independent/issue candidate....(certainly not an indep from the FF genepool).


so when all the canvassing is done, come next summer laois county council will have 85%+ of the current faces and the rainbow will retain the reins of power(not that much exist).

[Michael Moloney MCC(I)]

FG have 9 at present....all safe seats......best prospect of a gain in Mountmellick, outside chance at 3rd in Portlaoise.

Lab: one now, only chance of winning a seat, the new 7th seat in Portlaoise

SF: one now, a squeak at a second one in Mountmellick

PD: one to zero

Ind: 2 now, turley and jacob and both safe to return in 2009, possibilities that issue/independents could surface and with the right backing could cause trouble for FF in Borris and Portlaoise...in fact that final seat in portlaoise is at the mercy of an independent/issue candidate....(certainly not an indep from the FF genepool).

1. EMO

John Turley is not standing.
First three seats one each to FF, FG and INDEP (Midlands Radio 3 news tomorrow- 28/10/08)
Final seat fought out between FF, FG and Indep (at the moment FG are weak for a second credible candidate)

2. Borris in Ossary

FG are certain of 3 in Borris and FF can take 3 if they get JJ Fennelly to stick to vote management otherwise it is posible for them to blow it but only to FG. (The area is the size of Co Louth and a single issue candidate / independent would need to be strong in at least two of the three towns of Abbeyleix , Mountrath and Rathdowney. There is no obvious candidate out there.

3. Luggacurran

FG 2 FF2.

4. Portlaoise

The first 5 seats will go as follows: FG 2 FF 1 SF 1 Indep 1.

The last 2 will depend on a number of factors. If FF fail to get their act together on the national scene and if they fail to produce a good campaign in the Portlaoise area they may not take a second seat.

That been said factoring in the additional seat should see them over the line.

FG will only be in the reckoning for a third seat (The final seat) if they can pick a strong candidate. I hear that Labour's Jim O'Brien may be going here. An excellent candidate but I feel he has a mountain to climb however should Labour continue to perform well against the Governmnent then a mini Spring tied might give him the extra help he requires. Finally a second Indep could have an outside chance but only if FF and FG fail to pick a third strong candidate.

5. Mountmellick.

Firstly, SF have not a hope in hell here. Whoever is their candidate will be eliminated early. Take that as the only certainity in this area.

Two Points to note, Mountmelllick consistantly has one of the highest turnouts at elections and Mountmellick town voters have greater loyalty to town cnadidates than to party candidates than is common. If you analyise past local elections distributions of surpluses and eliminations where the candidate is from the town the evidence shows that voters cross party lines to give the preference vote to a fellow town candidate. so.....

FF 2 FG 1 AND FF, FG and Indep fighing for the last seat (if the Current Town Councillor Pat Bowe stands for Labour, Labour will also be in the final shake up.

So at this stage out of the 25 seats their is a definate tally of FG 9 FF 9 SF 1 INDs 2
with four down to the wire.

Michael Moloney MCC(I) Laois CC

[Michael Moloney MCC(I)]

Rumor out tonight that Paul Mitchell is about to move to FG.

Michael Moloney MCC (I) LCC

[wiseowl]

thank you cllr moloney for a very fair assessment, i think we agree on most of the districts.

i take on board what you say about the problem an independent issue candidate faces in getting off the ground, a good issue can rally support but without the right face may not be electable.........nonetheless in borris and portlaoise, the multi seaters, the final seat would be open to such one off runners on a given day.

mountmellick will be the battle royal, if you run along with bracken, mcdonald and digan, the splintering of the ff/ff genepool vote along with a drop of 5% in the FF total number 1 will offer up the final seat to FG. If this drop in ff support materialises and FF lose a seat then it will be either yourself or bracken and either mcdonald or digan, as there is one Mountmellick FF seat and one for the rural western region of the district( Clonaslee/ Rosenallis).

just one query to yourself, are foreign nationals allowed to run for the county council positions? I know they can run for town councils, if they are allowed to run for the county council then the infamous ex lord mayor of portlaois might be in a position to tap into the immigrant vote and get a quota.

[Michael Moloney MCC(I)]

Foreign Nations can vote and stand in the Locals, no distinction between town, county etc.

Michael Moloney MCC (I) LCC

[Michael Moloney MCC(I)]

just one query to yourself, are foreign nationals allowed to run for the county council positions? I know they can run for town councils, if they are allowed to run for the county council then the infamous ex lord mayor of portlaois might be in a position to tap into the immigrant vote and get a quota.

As you can see from the results he the former Lord Mayor did stand for the Council in 04.

ElectionsIreland.org > Results > Local Elections > 2004 > Portlaoise (91/180)
Local Elections: 11 June 2004
Portlaoise
Laois County Council (Leinster) 6 Seats 13 Candidates 9 Counts
Electorate: 12,034 Quota: 1,010


Candidate Party 1st Pref Share Quota Count Status Seat

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

* Willie Aird2 1,244 17.61% 1.23 1 Made Quota 1
Brian Stanley 1,020 14.44% 1.01 1 Made Quota 2
* Mary Sweeney 800 11.33% 0.79 6 Made Quota 3
Thomas Jacob 690 9.77% 0.68 9 Made Quota 4
* Jerry Lodge 667 9.44% 0.66 9 Made Quota 5
* Catherine Fitzgerald 555 7.86% 0.55 9 Elected 6

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Kathleen O'Brien 436 6.17% 0.43 (9) Not Elected
Rotimi Adebari 411 5.82% 0.41 (8) Eliminated
Jack Nolan 280 3.96% 0.28 (6) Eliminated
Helen Kelly 296 4.19% 0.29 (5) Eliminated
Richard Lyons 278 3.94% 0.28 (4) Eliminated
Tom Phelan 210 2.97% 0.21 (3) Eliminated
John Conroy 176 2.49% 0.17 (2) No expenses

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Total valid 7,063 58.69%

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Spoilt votes 107 1.49%

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Total poll 7,170 59.58%

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* outgoing Councillor


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[femerson]

Thanks for having confidence in me hill walker!!!
I am new to the site, and getting great satisfaction reading all the predictions!!!
I will be contesting the next local elections. With John Turley not running there is great opening to have someone new with something to say!!!!
I gather James Deegan will top the poll(yet again)!!!!
Did anyone here who will be the Fianna Fail candidates??
Also Margaret Lawlor running in Port for Labour.
Paul Mitchell will prob run Independent also.

[The Real King]

Emo Area I would like to hear peoples views hear on this one

The Line up for this area to the best of Knowledge
FF Cribbin Costello Pascal McEvoy(Timahoe)
FG Deegan An Other An Other Possibley Mitchell and ??????
Labour 1 Port Canidated
SF 1 Strabally based Canidate
Ind Frances Emerson(Hughie's Sister) Tommy Cushen(Who is this Guy?)

So with no one from the Vicarstown Turley Camp its wide open

I reckon 2FG will return with 1 FF Cribben
The last seat will toss up between Costello, Emerson, Maybe Labour or the Thrid FG canidate

Any Thoughts