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  1. #1
    SHarris SHarris is offline

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    Wicklow - General Election Discussion

    I know it could be two years way but what are people's views on Wicklow. Who's seat is safe? Who is vulnerable? Will Fianna Fail hold its two seats? Will Labour be in line to win an extra seat? What are FG's prospects??
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  2. #2
    Danny Danny is offline

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    Wicklow - General Election Discussion

    I know it could be two years way but what are people's views on Wicklow. Who's seat is safe? Who is vulnerable? Will Fianna Fail hold its two seats? Will Labour be in line to win an extra seat? What are FG's prospects??
    Go Deirdre De Burca, she's dead certain for a seat! [Well, it wouldn't be an election prediction thread without one of my 'predictions']
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  3. #3
    Sandman Sandman is offline

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    Wicklow - General Election Discussion

    Go Deirdre De Burca, she's dead certain for a seat! [Well, it wouldn't be an election prediction thread without one of my 'predictions'] [/quote]

    Well Danny at least your reliable for your unfailing optimism. De Burca is probably one of the three best chances the Greens have of making a gain as things stand. However at the locals poutside of De Burcas home territory of Bray there was no forward momentum. If the greens manage a good natinal campaign [which they didnt this year] she could get a boost though. She could be in with the chance on the day if Mildred Fox and the second labour candidate stay behind her on first prefernces.


    But thats a lot of ifs.

    [Edited on 17/12/2004 by Sandman]
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  4. #4
    thegeneral thegeneral is offline

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    Wicklow - General Election Discussion

    A very tough constituency to call. As it is there are 3 north Wicklow seats and 2 from the south and west. North Wicklow is a lot like south county Dublin while south and west Wicklow is more like other rural parts of Leinster. If Nicky Kelly gets elected he will take the 2nd FF seat which is vulnerable with Joe Jacob due to retire. I don't think FF can field a decent candidate at present and will be in trouble.

    FG will get a seat as will Roche and McManus. If DeBurca wins it will be off Fox as she is essentially a north Wicklow candidate as well. It's possible but Roche and McManus will take the lionshare of the vote from Bray and Greystones which may inhibit DeBurca. In the absence of a green swing I can see Fox holding on assuming the 2nd FF candidate is eliminated on the 2nd last count and the transfers favour Kelly and Fox over De Burca. For this to happen the 2nd candidate would have to bomb but it is possible at present.

    Roche, McManus, Timmins, Kelly and (in the absence of a strong 2nd FF candidate in the field) Fox to win the last seat. One of the few constituencies where Lab have a good chance at a gain.
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  5. #5
    Jim84 Jim84 is offline

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    Wicklow - General Election Discussion

    .Nick Kelly getting nearly 3,500 first preference votes in Arklow, got to make him favourites to take a second seat for the labour party.

    The question is will it be Joe Jacobs seat or Mildread Fox?

    Deirdre de Burca flirtation with the presidency would have boosted her profile.

    Think it going to be a Lab/Green gain in Wicklow

    But as all prediction so early out, comes with a health warning
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  6. #6
    Sandman Sandman is offline

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    Wicklow - General Election Discussion

    I think it's reasonably safe to assume that of all the sitting TDs Fox is the most vulnerable. She saw her vote drop last time, even though in the years previous to the election she had held influence on the government. Now she doesn't. She also no longer has her council seat and the end of the dual mandate was always likely to hurt the independants most.
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  7. #7
    thegeneral thegeneral is offline

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    Wicklow - General Election Discussion

    She also no longer has her council seat and the end of the dual mandate was always likely to hurt the independants most.
    Her brother was co-opted to and held her council seat in Bray.
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  8. #8
    Danny Danny is offline

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    Wicklow - General Election Discussion

    What, she does have a chance? Normally there would be a torrent of posts calling for my head!

    De Burca is probably one of the three best chances the Greens have of making a gain as things stand.
    Who's the other one? [Assuming No.2 would be Mary Whitte]

    Deirdre de Burca flirtation with the presidency would have boosted her profile.
    Do many people know of that?I only heard briefly of it.

    The locals we're too good for the Greens in Wicklow, but if HQ really targets Wicklow with funding and help from the other TDs [Wicklow is only a short drive for almost all our parliamentary party]
    Fox will certainly be weakened by her absense from this government. I'ld agree that De Burca replaing Fox and Kelly replacing a FF candidate is likely at this point.
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  9. #9
    CJH CJH is offline

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    Wicklow - General Election Discussion

    Her brother was co-opted to and held her council seat in Bray.
    He got a huge vote actually, I thought the Fox's were a busted flush until the summer. Mildred can't be written off, although it will be difficult for her.

    I have plenty to say on this topic, particularly on the certifiably mad Deirdre de Burca, but have to go now, so later comrades
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  10. #10
    Danny Danny is offline

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    Wicklow - General Election Discussion

    Fox apparently hates DeBurca,claiming 'all of Wicklow hates her'. I think someones frightened!
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