
Originally Posted by
QuizMaster

Originally Posted by
LowIQ
The Greens have hit their high water mark. Tara, Shannon, etc., will continue to fester and drag them down.
Want to make a little long bet?
Where exactly are the "fundi" green voters going to go, even if things stay as they are? But in fact I'd say things will get better. The Greens have 5 years to pull a few strokes and I'd say they'll do it. So far nothing, it has to be said, but it's early days.
I can't see any sort of new "greener than green" party getting anywhere.
It depends on the priorities of the Greens.
Its a fair point that 'fundi' greens wont be going anywhere else regarding their votes, but the problem could be that they dont vote
at all.
I have no idea what percentage of the Greens are fundi's. I would imagine that there is a higher ratio among members (more motivated, more likely to join etc) than among the Green voters in general. McKenna strikes me as a fundi, and she got 33% of the vote, but then again people would have voted for her because they like her, met her in the Supermarket, etc etc. Non- Government issues.
In fact I wouldn't be surprised if sod all Green voters are Fundi's.
The problem may be that a certain amount of Green voters were motivated to float over to them because of dislike of
FF and the
PD's.
You will have problems getting them back, but its absolutely beyond my ability to quantify how many people there are like this. iT may be insignificant.
Another problem will be transfers from
FG and
Lab voters.
If
FF replace them, that ceases to be an issue however.
One problem may be that
FF tends to have a few candidates on the slate.
Transfers, after giving
FF 1,2,3,4, aren't hugely useful to smaller parties.
If you add a 5 and 6 for
PD or independent candidates, suddenly the preference becomes a 7.
This however is constituency dependent. John Gormally wont have 4
FF candidates in his constituency, neither will Gogarty. Ryan will have 3, Cuffe only 2, while I think Mary White could be in trouble even at this juncture.