LinkBack URL
About LinkBacks
Based on a analysis of growth in GNP (the best measure of value for residents of the country) during their periods in office for the last three Ministers of Finance Ruairi Quinn is a clear winner with growth of 8.0% on an annualised basis. Even though he usually masquerades in the winners enclosure Charlie McCreevy was a moderate second at 6.4%, while BIFFO came in last at 6.1% . Maybe we should add a B for bluffer to his acronynm (BIFBFO). Cowen is partly protected because Bertie Ahern was even worse at 4.9% in 1993/94 although Berties circumstances were more difficult.
In fairness, McCreevy's first period as minister was nearly as good as Ruairi Quinn's but he tailed off badly in 2001 to 2004. Incidentally, for the slow learners, this was the period when he had managed to bring in most of his much vaunted changes. Mc Dowell should look at the evidence and not just assume his instincts are correct.
Growth during Cowen's period is very artificial as it relied heavily on an explosion of personal debt, mainly for housebuilding and we are now near the top of the league for personal debt. Instead of being one of the worst for government debt, many are now crippled with very heavy personal debt. Growth such as we have had under Cowen is completely unsustainable. Under Cowen there was very little growth in productivity which has to be the basis of real improvements in the standard of living.
For the doubters you can check the figures in the monthly economic bulletins of the Dept of Finance, and table 7.2 in the Statistical Yearbook of Ireland 2004 on the CSO website for the figures from the mid 1990's. The annual growth rates are given at the end of this entry.
People came to admire the Celtic Tiger and see how we did it. [b]I suggest that in future we will also be used as an example of how a great opportunity was then blown in the first half of this decade. The challenges we face ahead from globalisation will need better thinking that the simplistic response that the present bunch seem able to do.
The growth on GNP from 1993 to 2006 are as follows: Ahern (93-93) -3.3%, 6.6%; [i]Quinn (94-97) - 7.3,%,7.8%, 9.7%; McCreevy (97-04) - 9.7%, 7.9%, 8.7%, 10.1%, 3.4%, 2.8%, 5.5% and 3.9%; Cowen (04-06) - 3.9%, 5.3% and 7.4%. (Years where 2 ministers served are shown twice and each minister is credited with the appropriare portion of the annual growth.) Throw it all away under a Fine Gael/Labour coalition how are you. Look at the records.
Reply With Quote