outcome in new constituencies of Meath east & west

[justified]

There are alot of assumptions going on here.

thats what this is all about

1) I can't see Brady getting all the FF votes in the Coole area (ie Donie Cassidy's former voters) simply as he dosen't have a strong profile outside Kells. He is going to need Dempsey to maintain his 2002 vote for the transfers he will get, but I can't see Dempsey doing that, and I think Jonny may be in trouble.
2) Reily will do well but if the FF transfer pact holds up where else is he going to get the transfers from?

guess then its just a question of whose assumptions prove most accurate and which wild aspirations can be dismissed

[UnholyApollo]

I just cant see how Brady can keep on to the seat he got by the skin of his teeth in 2002 as he has not built up his profile outside kells and how can Reilly challange for the third seat if there isn't an obvious source of transfers for him to pick up to get him closer to the quota other than getting between Dempsey & Brady for FF voters 2nd pref.

[justified]

I just cant see how Brady can keep on to the seat he got by the skin of his teeth in 2002 as he has not built up his profile outside kells and how can Reilly challange for the third seat if there isn't an obvious source of transfers for him to pick up to get him closer to the quota other than getting between Dempsey & Brady for FF voters 2nd pref.

skin of his teeth ? enough said here to prove you dont know what you are talking about - check out the results then come back with some realistic viewpoints
http://www.electionsireland.org/counts. ... s=178&ref=

[UnholyApollo]

I say skin of his teeth because he did, he got the last seat with the help of FF pact transfers and was only ahead of reilly by around 1800 votes now maybe your defination is by 1 vote.
You only had to see his reaction when he was re-elected to know he knew that he had cut it fine.

[bradán feasa]

Justified,

Joe has to wait for an election before he can become a TD. Sheeeeshh

These figures are not far up on the local election result. For example Sinn Féin won 25% of the Navan vote in the 2004 locals. The party can realistically expect to win just over 30% in the general.

There will be no FF transfers. Dempsey will not exceed the quota and no FF candidate will be excluded.

Transfers will come from Independents, Labour, the Greens and Geraghty. Many of these transfers will be location based, left wing and seeking change.

If English is eliminated Joe Reilly can expect a large portion of his as they are both Navan based.

It is accepted that Joe Reilly is the only candidate in a position to cause an upset.

[UnholyApollo]

Justified,

Joe has to wait for an election before he can become a TD. Sheeeeshh

These figures are not far up on the local election result. For example Sinn Féin won 25% of the Navan vote in the 2004 locals. The party can realistically expect to win just over 30% in the general.

There will be no FF transfers. Dempsey will not exceed the quota and no FF candidate will be excluded.

Transfers will come from Independents, Labour, the Greens and Geraghty. Many of these transfers will be location based, left wing and seeking change.

If English is eliminated Joe Reilly can expect a large portion of his as they are both Navan based.

It is accepted that Joe Reilly is the only candidate in a position to cause an upset.

bradán,
It's not set in stone that all the voters that are seeking change away from FF will all go for Reilly, Reilly will definately flip the "soft FF vote" and get Green & Independant 2nd's but Lab voters may well go and follow the Mullingar pact before giving a SF preferance, he would get 2nd's from Geraghty but what if Geraghty gets a huge personal 1st pref vote and is in the mix, he would be more transfer friendly than SF.
I know its a bit far fetched but not out of the bounds of possiability.

[justified]

Justified,

Joe has to wait for an election before he can become a TD. Sheeeeshh

you know darn well what i meant

These figures are not far up on the local election result. For example Sinn Féin won 25% of the Navan vote in the 2004 locals. The party can realistically expect win just over 30% in the general.

Eh simply not true 20% in town council 15% when rural areas are brought in, BTW in the 2005 by election joey got 18% just over 2000 your suggesting this has now increased to 3500 fair play if it has but i dont believe you

If English is eliminated Joe Reilly can expect a large portion of his as they are both Navan based.

he wont be eliminated but if he is then joey and johnny will join dempsey

It is accepted that Joe Reilly is the only candidate in a position to cause an upset.

yes i agree with you and both of us disagree with unholyapollo. but i differ greatly from your estimate of joeys current strength and i've not seen ye canvass too much yet either in navan trim or kells which is the main reason i dont believe your increases from what joey actually got in byelection

[the meath commuter]

In Meath East Wallace will take a seat. After that who knows. I hear that McEntee is extremely concerned that his running mate Doherty is too strong. Hannigan wont take the seat. He was the media’s poster boy up until the current whiff of dodgy dealings descended on him. Also Fitzgearld will take a lot of the old Labour vote which he won in the by election back off him. The last two seats will go to either McEntee, Doherty or Byrne.

Whats this about dodgy dealings?? More details please - you can't just leave a "whiff" of accusation!

The Meath coastal region has more than enough votes to elect a TD. The only ones canvassing the area who are in with a chance are McEntee, Byrne and Hannigan. McEntee, as the incumbent and an anti-Government TD, should do well. I've heard that Doherty is a strong candidate, but she's been invisible in the area and without evidence....

Byrne is also apparently doing well on the Canvas. He's young and enthusiastic and comes across well. However, I can't see FF getting two seats here, what with the Government vote looking to decrease.

Hannigan has had a huge profile now for the last 2 years. He's the only politician to hold regular clinics in the area and has been circulating area-specific newsletters.

The smart money is on 1 FF, 1 FG and 1 Lab. Thats likely to be McEntee and Hannigan, but will it be Wallace or Byrne for FF? Is the huge number of "new voters" in the constituency likely to be impressed by the Minister's accomplishments? But are they likely to actually vote in the first place?

TMC

[HP]

"Also Fitzgearld will take a lot of the old Labour vote which he won in the by election back off him."

Why????

"The last two seats will go to either McEntee, Doherty or Byrne."

For Byrne to get a seat Wallace has to poll extremely well and transfer to him. I just don't see that happening. The only othere place an FFer is going to get transfers is SF and SF are concentrating their efforts on Meath West.

There's a fair few votes in Grange Rath but not enough to see him in.

My take.... Wallace (I presume though she has zero presence here on the coast) McEntee and Hannigan.

[jjcarroll]

Is the Weekender out? Heard there may be something interesting in it.

Not too up on Meath West, but in Meath East I see it wide open. A lot of people are forgetting that Hannigan had an open field in the by-election, with Fitzgerald competing for the general left vote (a lot of which voted for him previously), and Byrne and Cahill providing very local competition I cannot see him having a commanding position on the first count.

My own view is that McEntee and Wallace will be out in front and elected early on. After that, expect a long night and to see a very tight field between Hannigan, Fitzgerald, Doherty and Byrne. As a south Meath Fine Gaeler, I'm quite confident that Doherty will do very well. Reaction has been quite good, and if there is a general FG swing over the next week or two, as the opinion polls suggest, expect that to benefit Doherty in 'new' Meath.