The race is on

[Flyposter]

So whats going to happen in Longford Westmeath?
Whats the current form?
What are the issues on the Doorsteps?

[Iarmhi Gael]

The only thing certain in Longford Westmeath is that Willie Penrose will top the poll. His surplus will be crucial for Westmeath getting second seat.

Fianna Fail & Fine Gael will both get a seat. Jim Kelly will most likely take a seat for FF while Cassidy & O'Rourke are fighting it out for a second FF seat. FG's Bannon & McFadden are fighting it out for the FG seat, both are evenly matched.

Mae Sexton will must likely lose her seat for the PD's.

The main issue in the Westmeath is probably around the Hospital in Mullingar. Other issues concern transport, housing, amenties, zoning. Generally your typical county.

If I was to call it I would day

Penrose - Lab
Kelly - FF
McFadden - FG
Bannon - FG

I think Penrose's surplus to FG will move all three FG canidates up, I don't see Sexton getting the same vote as last time and her surplus may go to FG as what was hinted at in the last election.

If FG have a perfect Strategy, like they ran in Leinster for Europe I think they can jst pull this out of the bag and with everything going for them on the day its result like this that could lead to a change in Government.

[Defeated Romanticist]

Absolutly no chance of two FG seats in this constituency. Perhaps if Paul MacGrath was running again but t doesn't look likely.

Mae has a fight on her hands but no better woman for the job.

PS. How is Peter Kelly doing?

[Iarmhi Gael]

Maybe its my FG hat on, but if the wind is behind FG on polling day and FG maximise the vote while FF screw it up.

Kelly is definite behnd Penrose, the last 4 seats are anyone, but FG will most likely get one.

Mae Sexton has no chance and going out in the Betting

[towny]

Wouldn't bet against Contrary Mary. If she doesn't make it this time , Bertie can move to a squat in Manchester.

[ailish]

So whats going to happen in Longford Westmeath?
Whats the current form?
What are the issues on the Doorsteps?

I have niece who tells me theres a lot coming up about immigration particularly in Longford as there are a lot of Nigerians in Longford Town.

As regards Westmeath, I'd imagine its more to do with jobs since theres been a good few job losses in the westmeath area in recent years.

[Flyposter]

Wouldn't bet against Contrary Mary. If she doesn't make it this time , Bertie can move to a squat in Manchester.
Anyone could get a nice squat for €30,000 !!!

[gear one]

If Fine Gael do get two seats in this constituency, and it is a Big If, it will be at the expense of Peter Kelly. Fianna Fail have to get at least one seat in Westmeath considering they came close to taking two from three the last time.
This constituency is now wide open with the battle for three Westmeath seats as heated as the battle for three rainbow seats. There is also a battle within Westmeath to get an Athlone seat.
If FF take two seats I can see it being

Penrose
O'Rourke
Bannon
Kelly

If FG take two seats I can see it being

Penrose
Cassidy
Bannon
McFadden

The former is more likely.
I can't see two seats in Athlone.

[Ronanr]

Penrose is sure of a seat, and in FF one of Cassidy and O'Rourke will surely get a seat - there may be no love lost between them but Cassidy and O'Rourke will transfer to each other. If O'Rourke drops out before Cassidy, O'Rourke's steady FF voters will transfer to Cassidy (a lot of them have never even heard of Kelly). O'Rourke's "soft FF" voters are more likely to transfer to FG's McFadden than Kelly.

And while Kelly will do better if (as is most likely) Cassidy drops out first, it will be only slightly better.

My prediction: (to be elected in the following order)


Scenario 1 (O'Rourke leads Cassidy)

Penrose
O'Rourke
Whichever of the three FG'ers does best in the shake-out.
Kelly.



Scenario 2. (Cassidy leads O'Rourke)

Penrose
Cassidy
Nicky McFadden (O'Rourkes transfers will give her the edge)
Kelly

[Flyposter]

There are many different opinions But looking at the posts it seems that Penrose is a cert Even in Longford he has a very visable profile in the whole county
Peter Kelly is also seeminly in a strong position
James Bannon is also getting a great response on the trail or so the story goes But then FG are extreamly strong in Longford and they wont want to get caught out like the last time
There will be a battle royale in Athlone between the two women That will be very interesting
Donie Cassidy is under pressure but with Paul mc Grath not running that will help his cause some
Young Burke not going to break much ice in a tough area like this
Mae Sexton seems to be in big trouble not making much of an impression No Cardinal Healthcare this time !
Big postering job done also for Paul Hogan of Sinn Fein but hes not known in much of the area
Whats your views??