Charlie Flanagan launches his campaign

[RobinsReturn]

I was in Portlaoise this evening (Thurs) and there were so many cars driving into the multi-story carpark beside the heritage hotel that it caused a mini trafic jam. Were all these people going to Charlie Flanagan's launch? If the turnout is any indication he should get his seat back comfortably. However, when talking to friends and acquaintances, many say that Charlie is just not cutting it anymore and will really struggle. Any views?

[Salthill]

I was in Portlaoise this evening (Thurs) and there were so many cars driving into the multi-story carpark beside the heritage hotel that it caused a mini trafic jam. Were all these people going to Charlie Flanagan's launch? If the turnout is any indication he should get his seat back comfortably. However, when talking to friends and acquaintances, many say that Charlie is just not cutting it anymore and will really struggle. Any views?

He'll find it very hard not to get elected. There are so many FG voters in Laois that a weakened Parlon is no threat to him. He may be weak but he's one of the sure-fire-certain FG wins.

This said, I wold have had FG down for a comfortable pick-up in C/KK or Mayo and the evidence is leaning against them there.

[jayblue]

FG problem will be in Dublin, they will pick up seats down in the boglands and beyond the Pale, but will not gain enough in Dublin, reckon in Charlie is going to take a seat it will be a FF seat, there is no way that Laois Offaly people will wil return three FFers' and if they do then were up the swany

[The Analyser]

This said, I wold have had FG down for a comfortable pick-up in C/KK or Mayo and the evidence is leaning against them there.

I would take those local polls with a bucket, and not just a pinch, of salt. I did a review of local polls in 2002 recently. I'd forgotten how bloody awful they were. Most of them were wrong. Some were hilariously wrong. The classic was a Prime Time/Irish Independent poll for Dublin South East which

- said FF would get two seats (it got one)
- had Chris Andrews out by 6%
- said Ruairi Quinn was safe on 18%. It only got 12.43 and had a nail-biting fight on his hands
- was 4 points out for Eoin Ryan
- overestimated Frances Fitzgerald's vote and underestimated her running mate's

and best of all, said McDowell would be beaten by Sinn Féin's Daithi Doolan. In fact McDowell beat the Shinner by 11.5%!!!

The polls were frankly as pointless as a transgendered dog.

If you hear any poll anywhere state categorically that candidate x or party x is going to get the final seat, bin the poll immediately. Polls that claim to be able to predict transfers, partly for last seats, are bull************************. Those predictions are made by using a mock ballot paper, which means that the transfer predictions may have been made using a tiny fraction of an already small poll. (One poll some months ago predicted a certain FF loss in a constituency. I got access to the actual poll numbers. It predicted transfers on the 6th and final count on the basis of transfers from an eliminated candidate. The poll used 400 respondents. The number of actual transfers in the poll used to decide the final seat was . . . 4. Yes 4!!! If a 1000 person poll has a margin of error of +/-3%, you can just imagine the margin of error for a sample of 4!

The Mayo poll said FG, percentage-wise, were on target for a 3rd seat. It said they wouldn't get them based on transfers using a ballot paper, in which the transfers over the mock counts were tiny. It really was a load of bollox. The same with a poll that said FF's Charlie O'Connor would lose his seat. It reached that conclusion on a tiny number of people in the poll predicting later counts.

Any poll that tells you categorically that candidate x's vote will transfer 10% to candidate y and 21% to candidate z deserves the bin.

[Gerrry]

The Analyser:

The polls were frankly as pointless as a transgendered dog.

Just as all opinion polls are. The only ones that are accurate are the actual elction poll itself.

[jady88]

He will not get his seat, as for turnout the same could be said for PArlon. I love the description though... fine gael cause traffic chaos for portlaoise though! LoL

[The Analyser]

The Analyser:

The polls were frankly as pointless as a transgendered dog.

Just as all opinion polls are.

Wrong. Polls done with a correct sample size and methodology have a very good record of being right. If they didn't, FF, FG, Labour, the PDs, the Irish Times, the Irish Independent et al wouldn't spend a fortune commissioning them.

[apkavanagh]

FG problem will be in Dublin, they will pick up seats down in the boglands and beyond the Pale... there is no way that Laois Offaly people will wil return three FFers'

Boglands? Charming... If you knew anything of this constituency, you'd know that FF have a 95% chance of keeping their three seats...and that's probably an under-estimate.

[DevtheevenOgre]

He will not get his seat, as for turnout the same could be said for PArlon. ! LoL

Er jady, what about when we look at the turnout of only registered Laois-Offaly voters...

[DevtheevenOgre]

FG problem will be in Dublin, they will pick up seats down in the boglands and beyond the Pale...

You might find that 'boglands' seats are just as valuable as skangery seats... :twisted: