Should we enter a pre-election pact with anyone?

[NGTR]

[quote="wiseoldred"]

Even FG, who are historically a right wing party, now claim to be a social democratic party, which by nature is a left of centre position. But as anyone on this site has ever had any direct dealings with FG will tell you, the old guard of FG, which is by and large, all that is left, are extremely right wing.

[/quote/]

Fine Gael do not claim now to be a Social Democrat party. They are officially a party of the Progressive Centre that are members of the Christian Democrat family in Europe.
The party was quite Social Democrat in the late 70s and early 80s especially under Garret and also under Dukes.
The Social Democrat wing was mostly booted out in 2002 with the election defeat (hammering)

Many Social Democrats do remain in the party, indeed I used to be one,but it really isn't the flavour of the day amongst the membership and more importantly amongst the public representatives

[crosswind]

If Labour chooses to go into an election openly looking for a coalition with Fianna Fail and not really wanting a coaltion with Fine Gael it will probably be a plus on the perception of purity of policy side and will show Labour standing on its own. It would be looking for votes on a primarily policy based platform, not opposing the government, just the PD part of it. It would be a similar position to that of 2002. In hindsight being tied to the Fine Gael freefall was probably best avoided although there was no bounce for Labour even with twenty plus FG seats up for grabs in the end.

In 2004 something extraordinary happened. Fianna Fail's vote in two simultaneous national elections plummeted and turnout actually went up. Far from the electorate being turned off by politics, popularity based Euro elections, increasingly powerless local authorities and a clearly unpopular government they reversed a long standing turnout trend to give the government a good kicking. Fianna Fail's worst result in 80 years. The by-elections didn't give an indication that the new caring/left wing image government is working even with a very favourable opinion poll very close to polling day.

Some kind of pact between FG-Lab will likely give the electorate a real choice of governments next time out rather than being a Fianna Fail plus choice. Labour could be a idealistic policy driven party and hope that the electorate give Fianna Fail a big enough hit to make the overall majority, PD coalition and Independent support options that FF clearly prefer impossible but not too big a hit as to make Labour FF impractical but that didn't work last time. People want their country run with strength and run well. It is entirely possible that problems confronting the government will increasingly show it to be neither strong nor running the country well but as the FF spin machine kicks into gear it could well divide and conquer the opposition again leaving a third term open to the coalition.

Enda Kenny has one quality that his close predecessors lacked, affability. Try as Fianna Fail might to knock him down they are really only bringing focus closer to that other affable party leader, Bertie Ahern who's also not the sharpest Dail performer. Fianna Fail has traded heavily on the popularity and likeability of Bertie Ahern and there's no reason to suggest they will not try to make 2007 another popularity contest and take the focus away from the policy debate that Labour craves. By minismising the advantage of a popularity contest there could more room for policy debate although elections can take on an unpredictable momentum of their own.

Labour and Fine Gael are stuck in a generational time loop that sees the two parties who fight in the two main blocks in the European parliament where most of the other countries two main parties preside put in a position to have to unite to take Fianna Fail out of government. It clearly did a lot of damage to the image of government and the crediblity of the body politic to have someone like Charles Haughey as the top man. Dick Spring decided he had to leave Fianna Fail government after just over two years and not just because of it's leader who then lost his job. It's sad to say but the way the Freedom of Information Act was gutted and the refusal of government to accept political accountability when things go/are wrong doesn't make it look like lessons have been learned.

In essence the Labour party will have to accept that fiascos like electronic voting or Abbottstown can happen without political accountability if they want to fill the PDs shoes beside Fianna Fail in government. One-party government - no thanks.

[GÓM]

Why is everyone under the impression that you need a majority coalition to form a government???
I can see a situation in which a Labour Minority government wins power.
If the combined base of FG and FF falls below 50% then I can see Labour winning Taoiseach and a cabinet possibley with a FF or FG odd one in there. FG would never support a FFer. FG would never support Labour unless as a minorty partner(ala Mullingar). The only situation where FG might support a minority government led by Labour would be a huge surge in SF or the PDs. SF would obviously lend support to Labour in return for some sort of nationalistic compromise.

I can see it happen

[CJH]

Why is everyone under the impression that you need a majority coalition to form a government???
I can see a situation in which a Labour Minority government wins power.
If the combined base of FG and FF falls below 50% then I can see Labour winning Taoiseach and a cabinet possibley with a FF or FG odd one in there. FG would never support a FFer. FG would never support Labour unless as a minorty partner(ala Mullingar). The only situation where FG might support a minority government led by Labour would be a huge surge in SF or the PDs. SF would obviously lend support to Labour in return for some sort of nationalistic compromise.

I can see it happen

Will this happen before or after the angry multitudes storm the Dail and set fire to Willie O'Dea's moustache? Mate, I assume you're posts are taking the piss, but if not, you seriously need to get out more.

[Rocky]

I can't!!! Fianna Fail and Fine gael combinded support will never fall below 50% in the next general election. I think you're just dreaming GOM.