DMW Selection Convention

[Niccolò Machiavelli]

Don't be surprised if there is a mini upset at the selection convention, on the 13th oct. There are two candidates for the constituency's nomination, they are Senator Joanna Tuffy and Cllr. Robert Dowds. Although most people outside the constituency would expect Joanna Tuffy to win the nomination handily, this is not the case indeed Robert Dowds is actually in pole position.

Ever since the Clondalkin and Lucan branches came together to form the then new constituency of DMW there has been tension. These tensions were heightened when Joanna Tuffy(lucan)secured the nomination to contest the last general election, Clondalkin members were bitter at the novel process used, which ultimately did not favour Robert Dowds.

In Clondalkin's opinion Joanna Tuffy has not raised her profile significantly, the same way Robert Dowds has. Robert had a marvelous result in the last local elections, and a hugely successful year as Mayor of SDCC.

It has been laid down by the party that there will be only one candidate contesting the general election. At the selection convention it is 'one member one vote', as Clondalkin has roughly 60 members and Lucan 55 or so. Given the tribal nature of each branch, it is likely that each candidate can expect the overwhelming majority of their branch members to support them.

There will be fireworks at the Spa Hotel on the 13th Oct, no matter what the result is. Remember you heard it first here.

[JCSkinner]

Hi Robert.
That certainly is a Macchiavellian move alright.

[stretchneil]

I'd be extremely surprised (not to mention disappointed) if that were to be true - Joanna's pretty much a dead cert to make a Labour gain there, any other decision by the selection convention would be utter madness.

[cain1798]

I'd be extremely surprised (not to mention disappointed) if that were to be true - Joanna's pretty much a dead cert to make a Labour gain there, any other decision by the selection convention would be utter madness.

Dowds had a hugely successful year as Mayor? It's not as if he ended poverty.

He did a pretty good job, no major gaffes reported, didn't fall asleep at Council meetings and discharged his duties. If this is 'hugely successful', I'm a bit taken aback.

I've no real preference for who Labour picks, but I wouldn't necessarily say anyone is assured of a seat.

Fianna Fail should get one seat, Curran or Des 'Official' Kelly. (I don't think Curran has been hugely impressive)

Harney should get another, regrettable but true, she polled what is now a quota last time, but she's flailing pointlessly in health and might lose out in an Opposition rise. You wouldn't bet against her though.

Despite the protestations of those on this site who see Paul Gogarty as another Lemass, a Clinton like figure I think he was described, he's a Green who polled 12% last time and scraped in on transfers. Vulnerable.

Then there is the extra seat and two parties going for it, between Sinn Fein, who polled 12% in the Locals in the constituency, and Labour who polled 9% with Tuffy in 2002. (Don't have Labour 2004 figures for the constituency but would assume they're higher than that)

Realistically, I think Sinn Fein, Labour and the Greens will be fighting for two seats between them.

[thegimp]

If this is indeed the case, it is definitely a return to the bad old days (chopping and changing, infighting the lot!!). A labour candidate runs first time out and does well gets into Seanad and next election they're trying to shaft her??

John Curran FF, Mary Harney and that shinner fellow (didn't he top the poll in clondalkin ward last local election?) are all going to poll better then old man dowds in clondalkin. That leaves the dowdsy in a surely un winnable situation, as he won't even win enough votes in his own part of the constituency, let alone asnywhere else.

It's now a four seater and just say for argument sake FF, PD, SF win seats. It leaves Labour in a tough fight with FG and Greens for last seat. If Dowds gets the nod it'll make it a lot easier for Paul Gogarty (Lucan) Greens to hold-on to his seat. Particularly if Therese Ridge runs again for FG.

I don't want to be ageist, but the labour party did not elect any new TD's at the last election (some regained seats after losing them when the spring tide finally went out), so there's a greying army of reds in Leinster House. I don't think that they have any TD under 40. Dowdsy has to be in his fifties, it's hardly one for the future now is it?!! Me thinks labour needs new young blood and not anymore folks from the Buspass Carrying classes.

Sweet jehovah, somebody on the inside please tell me that this madness isn't so..

[stretchneil]

If this is indeed the case, it is definitely a return to the bad old days (chopping and changing, infighting the lot!!). A labour candidate runs first time out and does well gets into Seanad and next election they're trying to shaft her??

John Curran FF, Mary Harney and that shinner fellow (didn't he top the poll in clondalkin ward last local election?) are all going to poll better then old man dowds in clondalkin. That leaves the dowdsy in a surely un winnable situation, as he won't even win enough votes in his own part of the constituency, let alone asnywhere else.

It's now a four seater and just say for argument sake FF, PD, SF win seats. It leaves Labour in a tough fight with FG and Greens for last seat. If Dowds gets the nod it'll make it a lot easier for Paul Gogarty (Lucan) Greens to hold-on to his seat. Particularly if Therese Ridge runs again for FG.

I don't want to be ageist, but the labour party did not elect any new TD's at the last election (some regained seats after losing them when the spring tide finally went out), so there's a greying army of reds in Leinster House. I don't think that they have any TD under 40. Dowdsy has to be in his fifties, it's hardly one for the future now is it?!! Me thinks labour needs new young blood and not anymore folks from the Buspass Carrying classes.

Sweet jehovah, somebody on the inside please tell me that this madness isn't so..

It is madness, and as I say, I would be totally shocked if this were to happen. I've heard no other rumblings apart from this post to back up such an opinion.

I predict Tuffy will win the selection convention, and will win a Dáil seat next time out.

[LabourLover]

[Don't have Labour 2004 figures for the constituency but would assume they're higher than that.

Between Lucan and Clondalkin, Labour got just over 14 percent in 2004.

[green]

I don't think that they have any TD under 40.

They don't have any TD under 50.

[mullin]

The figures show a better Clondalkin Labour vote for Dowds than a Tuffy Lucan vote. But Tuffy is far more Dáil material. More of a national figure, given her good contribution so far in the Seanad.

I think it's more important to pick the right candidate and get behind her, rather than Dowds who will certainly pick up 800 more first preference votes if an election were held tomorrow. But campaigns are there to be won and no doubt Robert's team would get behind Tuffy if she were selected.

[Macchiavelli]

There will be fireworks at the Spa Hotel on the 13th Oct, no matter what the result is. Remember you heard it first here.

Wow, you take my name in vain, plagiarise it and spell it correctly!!! How Machiavellian are you, then? I use two C's because I am not a man, more of a Niccola!

I can't comment on who should get the nomination because I am part of the extended Green team in the area. But I would like to wish both of the contestants all the best. Haven't been introduced to Robert Dowds yet, but have seen him and he is definitely capable. Joanna Tuffy is another formidable representative who stands her ground in a debate.

Good luck to you both and may the best person win the nomination.