Register to Comment
Page 1 of 32 12311 ... LastLast
Results 1 to 10 of 313
Like Tree129Likes
  1. #1
    DaveM DaveM is offline
    DaveM's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Posts
    18,380

    Labour after the next General Election

    Labour are sick. We all know that. The question is whether it's terminal. And a lot depends on whether they come out the far side of the next GE as a viable entity or whether they are in PD post-2007 territory where everyone apart from the diehards in the party saw the game was up.

    So let's put on our nerd pants (no girls were going to be interested in you tonight anyway) and look at numbers.

    In the 2016 General Election labour polled 6.6% of the first preference vote. Outliers like 1992 and 2011 aside their long term trends was always in and around the 10% mark. So the starting point of this cycle saw one third of their core vote having abandoned them.

    Since the last general election there has been 49 opinion polls. They don't make for happy reading.

    Their best figure is 8% (Millward Brown/Sunday Indo, 26/10/2016).

    Their worst was just 3% (B&A/Sunday Times, 9 November 2016 and B&A/Sunday Times, 7 November 2017).

    Their average is 5.24%. Their average since Leo took over as Taoiseach is 5.07%.

    Worryingly for them when it comes to Ipsos/MRBI Irish Times polls (generally the most accurate) they are flat lining on 4%.

    Are they hold their vote where they have a high profile presence and losing what little was left in places where they got wiped out? Or is it a uniform drop across the country?

    So let's take their average since Leo took over an apply it to a General Election while trying to factor in local jiggery pokery.

    Brendan Howlin (Wexford)

    A complete wet blanket as leader but bullet proof in Wexford. Ivan Yates has described Wexford as a four seater plus Brendan Howlin.

    In 2016 he topped the poll on 14.8%. Apply the opinion poll drop to this (i.e. from 6.6% to 5.07%) this falls to 11.37%. Not ideal but enough to hold his seat. 2016 also indicates he doesn't suffer as much as the rest of the party when the vote falls.

    So despite the dog fight in the offing in Wexford with Mythen (SF) pushing hard the call is - Elected.

    Alan Kelly (Tipperary)

    No fence shaped dents in his arse. Polarises opinion. Scraped home last time out in a dog of a 5 seater on 9.9% of the FPV largely thanks to FG being beyond woeful.

    Even holding his vote from last time he needs a break in his favour. Tom Hayes maybe but definitely someone from FG is likely to take a seat. On the upside he reputedly is much better local operator than many of the his colleagues in the Dáil and might possibly be leader by the time the GE happens.

    This is a 50/50 call. Is Seamus Healy certain to run? If not what does that do? Does the north/south divide make it irrelevant? Seamus Morris has quit SF. Does he run again? If not do those Nenagh votes push Kelly over the line?

    Huge uncertainty and it wouldn't surprise if he romped home. But as things stand I think is may be a sad face in the count centre this time.

    AK47 - Lost.

    Jan O'Sullivan (Limerick City)

    11.2% in a four seater last time out taking the last seat by 338 votes from Kieran O'Donnell (FG). In a word... fúcked.

    So for Jan - Lost.

    Joan Burton (Dublin West)

    15.4% in a four seater last time out. Made it by about a 1,000 votes to take the last seat ahead of Paul Donnelly (SF).

    Local stuff. Varadkar. He's likely to increase his vote and will probably take a few from her in the process pushing her down the field and into the fight. Add the impact of a national downswing and I think she's goosed. If she runs (she'll be 70 next year).

    So for Joan (sorry BB) - Lost.

    Willie Penrose (Longford-Westmeath)

    Formerly a poll topper but the last man to make it to dry land anywhere in the country in 2016 with 8.7% in a five seater down from almost 19.8% in 2011 and 17.6% in 2007. Was likely hit hard last time by a late U-turn after being impressed upon by the party to run again rather than retire. If he's decided to go again he'll go wholehearted and win. Without Penrose the seat is gone. With nothing to base this hunch on I think he's going to retire.

    So Willie is - Lost (retired).

    Brendan Ryan (Dublin Fingal)

    If you don't live local he's Brendan Who? Made it home with relative ease on 10% of the FPV last time even though that was half his 2011 vote. A resurgent FG is the main threat to him next time out. I would have marked him as relatively safe but I'm having my doubts. It'll probably be two from him, SF and the second FG candidate next time out. If FG get their act together I can see him being squeezed out.

    So Ryan is - Lost.

    Ged Nash (Louth)

    The only possible gain that I can see at the moment. Lost out by 400 votes last time on 7.32% (down from 12.6% in 2011) and by rights shouldn't be coming back. But... Gerry Adams is retiring and SF may struggle to retain 29% of the vote. He's young, he's still very active locally (so it has been said) and I think he may be the one to buck the trend. I didn't give Kelly a tight call and one of these two might break their way.

    So Ged is in - Elected.

    Sean Sherlock (Cork East)

    Made it home without a sweat on 13.2% last time. Might dip a little but I think he'll be safe.

    Sean is in - Elected.

    Others

    Jack O'Connor. Aodhán Ó Ríordáin. Impossible? No. Highly unlikely? Yes.

    So this exercise in pointless speculation and half baked rumours that posters who are from those constituencies will call out as bóllocks while eating my tea has me coming up with 3 seats for Labour assuming one of Nash or Kelly makes it and Penrose hangs up his boots. If this happens they are, well... fúcked.
    Sign in or Register Now to reply

  2. #2
    ShoutingIsLeadership ShoutingIsLeadership is offline
    ShoutingIsLeadership's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
    Posts
    49,812

    Labour needs Alan Kelly as leader, immediately.

    Jack O'Connor might take a seat in Wickla.

    Without Kelly as leader, it's dead.
    Sign in or Register Now to reply

  3. #3
    Analyzer Analyzer is offline
    Analyzer's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2011
    Posts
    45,651

    The ISIS Times is not going to rescue the Looper Party, no matter how hard it tries - because it is losing relevance.

    PRAVDA-rte need to get the finger out.
    Sign in or Register Now to reply

  4. #4
    ShoutingIsLeadership ShoutingIsLeadership is offline
    ShoutingIsLeadership's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
    Posts
    49,812

    The interest in this thread says it all!
    Sign in or Register Now to reply

  5. #5
    sadmal sadmal is offline
    sadmal's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2007
    Posts
    11,564

    Quote Originally Posted by ShoutingIsLeadership View Post
    Labour needs Alan Kelly as leader, immediately.

    Jack O'Connor might take a seat in Wickla.

    Without Kelly as leader, it's dead.
    I think Alan Kelly is doing the best he can to be the next leader. Keeping in the public eye and all that. His behaviour at the last election count was really embarrassing and didn't do him any favours IMO.
    Sign in or Register Now to reply

  6. #6
    ShoutingIsLeadership ShoutingIsLeadership is offline
    ShoutingIsLeadership's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
    Posts
    49,812

    Quote Originally Posted by sadmal View Post
    I think Alan Kelly is doing the best he can to be the next leader. Keeping in the public eye and all that. His behaviour at the last election count was really embarrassing and didn't do him any favours IMO.
    But you noticed
    Sign in or Register Now to reply

  7. #7
    Analyzer Analyzer is offline
    Analyzer's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2011
    Posts
    45,651

    Amadan O Reardawn will probably get lots of media coverage in the run up to the next election.

    All based on his attention seeking, virtue signalling antics in a body that he wanted abolished, before he ended up there. The Seanad.

    Sublime irony, there.
    Sign in or Register Now to reply

  8. #8
    im axeled im axeled is offline

    Join Date
    Nov 2010
    Posts
    27,965

    the stickies will have some pension money after the next election, if the put the same energy into running the country as they have in pension garning, they would not be fckued
    Sign in or Register Now to reply

  9. #9
    Interestedhopeful Interestedhopeful is offline

    Join Date
    Jan 2018
    Posts
    365

    Quote Originally Posted by Analyzer View Post
    The ISIS Times is not going to rescue the Looper Party, no matter how hard it tries - because it is losing relevance.

    PRAVDA-rte need to get the finger out.
    Why worry? If they disintegrate there will be cheer from the furthest margins of the far right across all the way to the margins of the far left.

    Seeing those polls, Justin Barrett and the National Party could nearly poll higher than Labour.
    Sign in or Register Now to reply

  10. #10
    devoutcapitalist devoutcapitalist is offline

    Join Date
    Feb 2013
    Posts
    15,568

    Kelly needs to take over as Labour leader, Howlin is useless.
    Sign in or Register Now to reply

Page 1 of 32 12311 ... LastLast
Sign in to CommentRegister to Comment