Labour and the new Paddy Power opinion poll

[ReligiouslyLeft]

So with the new Paddy Power opinion poll showing the party at 16% down 3 on their GE performance same as FG, it must surely demonstrate that the party support is holding up well particularly seeing as this is the first poll since the budget and 16 is a good performance in light of the hugely negative publicity over the last month

it also shows the inaccuracy of the behaviour and attitudes polling company for the Irish Times going further to show that they are consistently way off

That's what I'm taking from the poll doomsday predictions avoided thus far

[Keith-M]

Down 3% after less than a year, FAR less transfer friendly. One third of their TDs are already toast. It will be over half by the election.

[Con Gallagher]

What achievement are Labour supporters most proud of in the last 10 months? (ie is there anything which justifies higher poll ratings?)

[ReligiouslyLeft]

Adrian Kavanagh seat predictions:
FG: 66
Labour: 29
FF: 24
SF: 23
Greens: 3
Others: 21

Based on the above poll
For me the big one is the restoration of the minimum wage

[MacBeth]

Yeah if you pull out of government now you might have a chance of keeping 25 seats

[Keith-M]

Adrian Kavanagh seat predictions:
FG: 66
Labour: 29
FF: 24
SF: 23
Greens: 3
Others: 21

Based on the above poll

Kavanagh is clearly not using the regional breakdown.

[curiousorange]

Yeah if you pull out of government now you might have a chance of keeping 25 seats

As long as Labour maintains the Croke Park agreement then they should surely maintain the PS voting bloc, which is certainly big enough to give Labour strong representation in seats. Who else are the PS going to vote for?

If the CPA was threatened then they would have to pull out of government or risk a meltdown.

And no, I don´t want a PS versus Private Sector "debate", just speaking in raw political terms.

[ReligiouslyLeft]

First RedC of 2012…. « Irish Polling Report
heres another one thats even better

[Panopticon]

So with the new Paddy Power opinion poll showing the party at 16% down 3 on their GE performance same as FG, it must surely demonstrate that the party support is holding up well particularly seeing as this is the first poll since the budget and 16 is a good performance in light of the hugely negative publicity over the last month

it also shows the inaccuracy of the behaviour and attitudes polling company for the Irish Times going further to show that they are consistently way off

That's what I'm taking from the poll doomsday predictions avoided thus far

B&A works for the Sunday Times but, yes, I agree that there is no evidence that they are an accurate pollster. RedC was not great in GE2011 but it was pretty close.

What achievement are Labour supporters most proud of in the last 10 months? (ie is there anything which justifies higher poll ratings?)

They should be proud that they have stopped FG from implementing a right-wing, socially conservative agenda. No, it's not a positive achievement, but what government in the Western world has notched up a positive achievement in the last three years? This is the great recession, and you get kudos for stopping bad things rather than doing good things.

Kavanagh is clearly not using the regional breakdown.

He's giving the Greens 3 seats; that's very generous, and I don't see how you get that if you don't use the regional breakdown, because the Green vote would be too small in Dublin otherwise.

[CarnivalOfAction]

Yeah if you pull out of government now you might have a chance of keeping 25 seats

Gilmore Girl's Green Ger(!)sey: