Constituencies where Labour will win 2 seats

[jacko]

A major shift in Irish politics in favour of Labour will reqire the party to win a second seat in many constituencies.

Where will this happen

Dublin S-E
Dun Laoghaire
Wicklow
Kildare North
Cork N-C

?????

[sandar]

A major shift in Irish politics in favour of Labour will reqire the party to win a second seat in many constituencies.

Where will this happen

Dublin S-E
Dun Laoghaire
Wicklow
Kildare North
Cork N-C

?????

kildare north is not likely unless they can get murphy back into the fold

[kerrynorth]

I do not know about WILL win but you can identify possible ones:

Dun Laoighre; Wicklow; Dublin South, Dublin South West; Dublin South East; Dublin South Central; Kildare North.

Some might find it surprising that I included Dublin South where they have no seat but South, which is notoriously erratic and with no George Lee, elected Eithne Fitzgerald with 2 quotas at the last swing to Labour in 1992. Kildare North would be a possibility as well if they recruited Catherine Murphy.

Cork North Central is an absolute non-runner with something like over 1/3rd of the constituency now rural.

[jacko]

Wicklow? Not a hope. The party is in a shambles in Co Wicklow.

They will have to trot out Lady McManus to retain the seat they have. I presume she will do the honourable thing and do another 5 years.

childers ?

[locke]

What will be hard to work out is how the FF vote will distribute. We have surprisingly little data on it given FF's previous success in getting candidates elected.

If it significantly favours Labour over FG, then there could be a number of other constituencies opened up - Cork East, Wexford, maybe Carlow-Kilkenny.

My gut feeling is that it will only significantly favour Labour over FG in urban areas and the constituencies I've listed aren't urban.

Of course, in all those constituencies, votes staying in the same town/area is also an issue. Selecting a geographic balance and targetting the correct FF TD is also important.

[jacko]

What will be hard to work out is how the FF vote will distribute. We have surprisingly little data on it given FF's previous success in getting candidates elected.

If it significantly favours Labour over FG, then there could be a number of other constituencies opened up - Cork East, Wexford, maybe Carlow-Kilkenny.

My gut feeling is that it will only significantly favour Labour over FG in urban areas and the constituencies I've listed aren't urban.

Of course, in all those constituencies, votes staying in the same town/area is also an issue. Selecting a geographic balance and targetting the correct FF TD is also important.

the swing to labour is likely to be most pronounced in the commuter belt areas

[macdarawhitfield]

What about seats - some partly rural - where Lab used to have a seat? Kerry South maybe,though they would probably need to get some GAA man on board.

[locke]

It's not so much the swing to Labour as what happens to the vast pool of FF transfers that become available.

Taking Cork East as an example (and grossly oversimplifying), imagine that FF support drops enough that the 2nd Labour candidate finishes ahead of the 2nd Fianna Fail candidate on first preferences.

Now, clearly a large number of the FF votes would go to elect the FF running mate, but that could still leave 5,000 or so homeless votes.

If those break 50% to Labour and 30% to FG, that's 1,000 more votes to Labour. But if they break 40-40, no extra Labour votes.

Of course, in Cork East, the real answer lies with which FF TD loses the seat. With 2 TDs likely to be elected in the North of the constituency and 2 in the South, Ahern losing would favour a second Labour seat, while O'Keeffe losing would favour a second FG seat.

[QuizMaster]

This is Labour's problem. They get more popular, it just means they pile up their majorities and take first seats instead of 5th seats, but that's no use to them.
As I said before, they're not very good at breaking into new territory.
As for doubling up on seats, I'm not sure about that either. Not enough 5 seaters in Dublin anymore.

Even Dunlaoghaire, their new flagship, will be a very tall order for them. Eamonn Gilmore's vote is partly Labour and partly personal. he has the southern end of the constituency wrapped up with the personal votes. It will be very difficult for him to split that vote to a second candidate. Further north, they got Niamh Breatnach elected before, but where is she now? Who is there from the Blackrock/Monkstown area? Can they really leave only 2 between FF, FG, Boyd-Barrett? And let's not write off Mr. C. Cuffe just yet.

[QuizMaster]

the swing to labour is likely to be most pronounced in the commuter belt areas

I agree the new commuter belts will be rich pickings.
I was surprised it didn't happen last time.
Something about breakfast roll man voting for Bertie and the boom.