So what impact, if any, will the kerfuffle over Darren Scully have on the next locals? At this mid-point two and half years out it seems timely to have a look at the current runners and riders and see how things are shaping up…
Predictions in Naas LEA area:
FG – Of the two heavy hitters last time out, well one is in the Dáil and the other is in the dock (of public opinion anyway). Of course Scullygate could yet rebound to his advantage as a “straight talker” yada yada and it would not be that amazing if he came back and topped the pole on the strength of what he said on the airwaves. However it is also possible all this is part of a sulk at having been passed over for Tony Lawlor last time round and that his heart may just not be in it any more by the time 2014 rolls around. FG may look to introduce a young blood and add the likes of Naas Town Councillor Alan O’Kelly to the ticket, especially if Scully’s star has waned by that stage. For FG to hold the two seats is still quite possible but this far out anything could still happen.
Lab – In line with previous coalition “mud guards” Labour according to history should take the most flak for all budget cuts / hikes / slashes over the next two years so should be expecting a tough time of it come LE2014. That said it should be possible to hold 1 out of 5 as they are coming from a low base and did not win that extra seat in the Gilmore Gale last time that might have now become vulnerable. Prediction for Paddy Mac to hold.
FF – The FF campaign / result overall will be a good bellwether of how serious a job Martin is doing at national level on the party “renewal” project. A serious effort to rebuild & rebrand the party should see the likes of James Lawless being well supported as the next generation flag carrier, one of the shiny new types that Martin has indicated a preference for already. A regressive / retreating FF however would see long-time plugger Willie Callaghan emerge from the trenches and engage in street combat once more.
SF – SF will be targeting a gain here and Martin Kelly has been at it for a while now hoping to build from a respectable showing in GE11. A lot will depend on which way the wind blows in between and whether they can maintain or improve upon their current poll position which seems very possible given nothing but austerity expected from Dublin / Brussels / Frankfurt over the time ahead. However, Kildare North is one of the worst areas for SF nationally. A gain here would be of huge significance.
Indos – Seamie Moore is the current standard bearer for the Independent minded here. Whilst getting a little long in the tooth maybe, Seamie remains popular and is still very busy with Naas Tidy Towns and other local worthies. Even were Seamie to bow out there has always been an Independent seat here and it seems likely a new challenger (or an old one returning – Mary Glennon?) would take up the mantle instead.
Greens – Greens held a seat here under JJ Power and had a seat on Naas Town Council at one stage, under more than one individual. However JJ appears to have retired from politics and the Greens would want to be staging a very serious electoral comeback for a new candidate to pose any serious threat here. May run a candidate as part of a long term rebuild strategy but very unlikely to be in the shakedown at any stage.
Predictions in Clane LEA area:
FG- Two councillors from last time out, Weld the more experienced and higher poller of the two while running mate only scraped in on transfers but Brendan must be looking towards the business end of retirement at some election soon. FG might need to blood in a new candidate here, if only to begin succession planning for the time after.
FF - Liam Doyle is fairly strong up in the north end around Kilcock area however there is a gap left over in the FF-friendly North West and in Clane town itself. If Fitzpatrick junior was to re-enter the fray may be good support for him. His father was very well respected. If FF are to gain a seat in North Kildare, Clane will be their best chance in my view.
Labour / Indos - Not a natural hunting ground for Labour being predominantly rural / conservative however Chris Rowland / Rose Devine made reasonable attempts between them last outing. Continued work on the ground can always produce surprise results but it seems likely Padraig McEvoy will mop up any left leaning anti-establishment vote here, especially given an expected Labour coalition backlash, and McEvoy seems to have aligned himself with Catherine Murphy here too which plants him firmly in that protest / leftie vote spectrum. Also regarded as a good worker on the ground.
SF – No presence here at present. Don't expect them to have any sort of showing in 2014 in this area.
Over 2 years away is a long time. Scully should be gone from FG this week, and if not, then his star will have waned sufficiently to mean he is a non-runner. He always gave me the impression of being very ambitious and now with his toxic outburst he has no chance of ever getting the FG nomination he may throw his hat at it. As for Lawler, the invisible man, he has 5 years to make an impression or its back to the council for him, which is about his level.
LE will be interesting in all areas. Will no doubt be a backlash against Fg & labour candidates. Always is a turn against the government in the locals. I think the whole country media will be watching naas with interest after scullygate. A lot of people I know say he will top the poll, but will he run, seems to have gone very quite of late. Fg should hold at least one of the two with one going to ind and the other three between ff lab and sf. For sf to win they need to beat paddy mac of lab. I get the feeling he won't be running next time. Anyway they say a week is a long time in politics never mind two years.
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