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  1. #21
    jackryan jackryan is offline
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    The two HR brothers pulled some votes at the locals, I'd underestimate them at my peril!!
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  2. #22
    FionnMc FionnMc is offline

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    Sheahan hasn't exactly covered himself in glory since being elected. I'd be surprised if he's as safe as some seem to think.
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  3. #23
    dotski_w_ dotski_w_ is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by jackryan View Post
    The two HR brothers pulled some votes at the locals, I'd underestimate them at my peril!!
    Oh he'll get a great vote, perhaps up to 20%, but the FF. FG and LP are all looking like being around 25%. I remember a LP candidate in Tipperary Nth getting 24.5% FPV once and just being unlucky that 3 other candidates all had more and it was a 3-seater.

    He needs LP to fall back significantly, or FG. FF are unlikely to do so enough from current levels to help him
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  4. #24
    jackryan jackryan is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by dotski_w_ View Post
    Oh he'll get a great vote, perhaps up to 20%, but the FF. FG and LP are all looking like being around 25%. I remember a LP candidate in Tipperary Nth getting 24.5% FPV once and just being unlucky that 3 other candidates all had more and it was a 3-seater.

    He needs LP to fall back significantly, or FG. FF are unlikely to do so enough from current levels to help him
    It will depend on FF/FG split if they run 2 candidates! and who the Labour candidate is and where they all are from!
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  5. #25
    bersouth bersouth is offline

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    Quote Originally Posted by dotski_w_ View Post
    Oh he'll get a great vote, perhaps up to 20%, but the FF. FG and LP are all looking like being around 25%. I remember a LP candidate in Tipperary Nth getting 24.5% FPV once and just being unlucky that 3 other candidates all had more and it was a 3-seater.

    He needs LP to fall back significantly, or FG. FF are unlikely to do so enough from current levels to help him
    Agree they pulled a good vote in Locals but general is a totaly differennt ball game, a lot will depend on who or if FF run with JoD, Mark Day would eat into Healy Rae FP in the kenmare area or if Cahill runs it will eat into John O'D Fp vote, Griffing will sweep up the Dingle area vote and may well put his running mate under pressure, The Gilmore gale will drive on whoever is nominated from Lab and these factor point to end of Healy Rae
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  6. #26
    morbro morbro is offline

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    Will Healy Rae be the next TD to withdraw support from Government re items on his shopping list.
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  7. #27
    bersouth bersouth is offline

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    Quote Originally Posted by morbro View Post
    Will Healy Rae be the next TD to withdraw support from Government re items on his shopping list.
    Next wed will tell a lot, some will huff and puff but I dont think they will blow the house down
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  8. #28
    SlabMurphy SlabMurphy is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by Fencing View Post
    O' Donoghue topping the pole is the perfect example that in Irish politics that you can make a mockery of the country but as long as you take care of your own, you'll be fine
    Totally agreed, it's why the Gombeen state is down the toilet and will remain so as long as the sheep that vote in this state continue to . If your young and have a good trade/education for God's sake build a decent life for yourself and get the hell out of the place.
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  9. #29
    gijoe gijoe is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by FloatingVoterTralee View Post
    With the Healy-Rae seat under pressure, here is the field and my prediction:

    Fianna Fáil: John O'Donoghue
    Mark Daly/Martin Cahill
    Fine Gael: Tom Sheahan
    Brendan Griffin
    Labour:Marie Moloney
    Sinn Féin:Lynne Ní Bhaeoghlán
    Independent: Michael Healy-Rae

    No prizes for suggesting that Donoghue will top the poll, followed by Sheahan, but the final seat will be a three-way dogfight. Moloney could be a future TD, but the next election will come too soon, and while it's foolish to underestimate the Healy-Raes, Griffin's base in Castlemaine and the Dingle Peninsula should be decisive.

    1. O'Donoghue
    2. Sheahan
    3. Griffin
    Surely you mean Michael Cahill for FF as a possible 2nd FF candidate? In any case that will not happen as he and JOD are virtual neighbours in the same part of the constituency.

    Daly is much more likely and I am sure the nomination is his if he wants it as there does not appear to be a credible Killarney based candidate.

    As for the seats:

    Sheahan; Moloney; JOD.
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  10. #30
    Keith-M Keith-M is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by Fencing View Post
    O' Donoghue topping the pole is the perfect example that in Irish politics that you can make a mockery of the country but as long as you take care of your own, you'll be fine

    The only way you'll get over this is to have bigger constituencies and a list system. If all Munster was one big constituency, Lowry and Jackie Healy-Gob************************e would get nowhere near the Dail.
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