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  1. #1
    blokesbloke blokesbloke is offline
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    If Sean Gallagher had stood as the official FF candidate...

    ... would he be doing as well as he is now?

    I really am curious about this - remember I have no stake in this beyond Paddy Power bets and an admitted fondness for how sexy Sean Gallagher is. I don't live in Ireland, I'm not Irish and I have no vote.

    My introduction to Irish politics was courtesy of P.ie - I joined in the dying days of the last FF/Green government and I was amazed at the utter contempt for FF then. Although it's true to say that P.ie certainly doesn't reflect real life, it's also true to say that FF really did collapse at the last election under a year ago.

    So is Sean doing well because people believe is is sufficiently distanced from FF, or do they not care if he is?

    If they don't care, could FF have run him as a candidate and be revelling even more that their official candidate was winning?

    Or did the fact that his FF connections mean nobody took him seriously as a candidate, and ignored other details about him to focus attacks on his FF past, mean he avoided scrunity about other things until it was too late?

    I am genuinely curious as to why FF isn't tainting Gallagher.
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  2. #2
    Bitmap Bitmap is offline

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    Quote Originally Posted by blokesbloke View Post

    I am genuinely curious as to why FF isn't tainting Gallagher.
    Aren't we [email protected] all?
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  3. #3
    mr. jings mr. jings is offline
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    He might have had a rougher ride of it, but I'd always be cautious about projecting my longstanding anti FF bias onto the population at large. There's still a hell of a lot off people out there who consistently voted for FF but for the last election, where, let's face it, FF were always going to get a drubbing. I'm not saying that they would all vote FF into government again in the morning, but the Presidency is a different ball game, and SG was never really at the very centre of FF policymaking (such that it was) and also has a recognition factor beyond FF through Dragon's Den.

    It's also a mistake to underestimate the man. He may in many respects epitomises a classic FF tiger type, but he also is seen - rightly or wrongly - to have other strings to his bow. A vague record of youthwork, rousing (if somewhat hollow) plainspeaking positivity, and a rural appeal that transcends his Cavan/Louth roots. And a good looking wife.

    He's also done well by default - Gay was always going to be a train wreck, Norris never really locked horns with his critics until a little too late, Davis seems a nice if electorally underwhelming lady, McGuinness was always going to struggle with his past and a certain glass ceiling that SF have with the Irish voters at present, and Dana (her) god love her, was never going to do it. Much of this would have worked in his favour anyway.

    What FF candidacy would have denied him, however, was one of his great assets. The ability to lie low for the first couple of weeks, sticking to his four or five core messages with a sprig of anti-poster/flyer populism, and getting noticed by individual voters in a kind of personalised discovery kind of way.

    People love a dark horse, shame he's a bit of a Trojan one too
    Last edited by mr. jings; 23rd October 2011 at 10:06 PM.
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  4. #4
    jo9jo jo9jo is offline
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    I think Gallagher is the FF candidate by default.
    Gallagher secured his nomination by the county council route while MM was flirting with Gay Byrne and others to run for the party.
    Gallagher is the front runner because he is the most competent of all the candidates.
    He would also be the front runner if he was the official FF candidate.
    However, he would never have gotten the FF nomination.
    He is about to reclaim the votes that Phil Hogan borrowed in the last general election.
    Gallagher is an independent candidate with a FF past (big deal!).
    Ronald Reagan was a Republican President with a Democrat past.
    When Gallagher is elected President he will be above party politics.
    He will be the President for all people.
    All previous presidents were above party politics.
    Gallagher, if he wins, will soon discover that the Presidency is a really boring gig.
    I hope he is a golfer.
    He will have plenty of time to improve his golf handicap.
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  5. #5
    carlovian carlovian is offline
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    think its like the bertie thing. You either hate or love him.

    large percentage of the country hate FF but about 40% have voted for them in the past and dont blame Gallagher for the bankruptcy of the country.

    Throw in weak FG/LAB candidates and we could have pres Gallagher inviting the Cif to develop phoenix park into apartments
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  6. #6
    darkhorse darkhorse is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by blokesbloke View Post
    ... would he be doing as well as he is now?

    I really am curious about this - remember I have no stake in this beyond Paddy Power bets and an admitted fondness for how sexy Sean Gallagher is. I don't live in Ireland, I'm not Irish and I have no vote.

    My introduction to Irish politics was courtesy of P.ie - I joined in the dying days of the last FF/Green government and I was amazed at the utter contempt for FF then. Although it's true to say that P.ie certainly doesn't reflect real life, it's also true to say that FF really did collapse at the last election under a year ago.

    So is Sean doing well because people believe is is sufficiently distanced from FF, or do they not care if he is?

    If they don't care, could FF have run him as a candidate and be revelling even more that their official candidate was winning?

    Or did the fact that his FF connections mean nobody took him seriously as a candidate, and ignored other details about him to focus attacks on his FF past, mean he avoided scrunity about other things until it was too late?

    I am genuinely curious as to why FF isn't tainting Gallagher.
    Not a good introduction to politics - most of the views expressed here dont represent Irish public opinion
    The fact is that Gallagher was never considered for the FF nomination for the Presidency because he never appeared on the radar
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  7. #7
    Keith-M Keith-M is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by blokesbloke View Post
    I am genuinely curious as to why FF isn't tainting Gallagher.
    I'll give you six reasons.
    1; Gallagher's message of business and jobs is resonating with the electorate in the same way that Robinson's liberalism stuck a cord in the wake of divorce, contraception etc in the 80s and McAleese's "building bridges" working in the era of the "peace process".
    2; Gallagher was never seen publicly as a FFer. How many people on the national executive on any party that are not in LH can most people name?
    3; Gallagher isn't he FF candidate. If he was Martin wouldn't have been chasing Gay Byrne months after Gallagher was in the field.
    4; Gallagher is drawing support far beyond the former FF support base, especially FGers, who have a bit of business savvy.
    5; People realise that being a member of FF and even on the NE, doesn't mean you had anything to do with the disastrous decisions made by the government.
    6; People are fed up with the media throwing sh1t around like angry chimpanzees and have switched off from all the negativity.
    and of course...
    Gallagher's main opponent is also a former FFer.
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  8. #8
    Plebian Plebian is offline
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    The majority of the Electorate don't care whether he's FF or not and if you delve deep enough into the the Irish psyche, there always has been a majority for the ideals of the original FF as the party of the people (the working class and the small farmers). FG were seen as the party of the Establishment (the wealthy and the big farmers).

    Times have changed FF have declined but it's still ingrained in the majority of Irish people to vote for someone or something that represents an anti-elitist mindset, even if that person or party is dodgy.
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  9. #9
    johnnyvega86 johnnyvega86 is offline

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    People who were born and grew up in the bosum of FF, instinctively want to vote FF.
    Traditionally only the prodigal sons and daughters vote for FG and Lab and only the mad black sheeps vote for SF or SP or SWP.
    The only reason people voted FG in the last election is because Enda has taken on the mantle of Bertie - aloof yet a man of the people.
    When FG get into power because their aristocratic roots in the Anglo-Protestant Ascendancy and the Old English Catholic Confederacy, they therefore feel and entitlement to rule.
    FF's roots are in the Gaelic chieftain system of old.
    Gallagher's family roots are in Donegal and the Gallagher clan who were allies of the O'Neill.
    People want to vote FF and when it is a sin to vote FF, all that FF candidate has to do is call himself an independent.
    It's like the old 'want to go back to my place to watch my cat do back flips' line you use to get a woman into bed when it is time to get a taxi home. She knows and you know that she knows and she knows that you know that she knows that sex is on the cards. But you have just given her an excuse to go along because you did not explicitly ask her for a ride.
    That is what FF has done by making it a pleasure to vote FF.
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  10. #10
    escoline escoline is offline

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    Quote Originally Posted by blokesbloke View Post
    I

    I am genuinely curious as to why FF isn't tainting Gallagher.
    On this site FF is a toxic brand but the people think otherwise. They can separate FF the party from the last government that wrecked havoc with this country.
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