RedC Poll for PaddyPower: Higgins 36% (-3), Mitchell 24% (-1), Gallagher 21% (nc), Davis 19% (+4)
Changes are compared to poll in August 2011
Key Findings
- The majority of Irish citizens (63%) do believe that having an elected president for Ireland is Important, with those in the youngest age groups most likely to feel this.
- However a large chunk of voters (33%) currently suggest they do not know who they would vote or state they would not vote for any of the current candidates put up for the election – suggesting there is a desire among this group for another candidate to enter the race.
- Among the candidates available, Michael D Higgins tops the poll securing 36% of the first preference vote, with Gay Mitchell next at 24%. The two independent candidates then secure similar share with Gallagher on 21% and Davis on 19% respectively.
- Mary Davis is the candidate who has made gains over the past month, moving from 15% in August to 19% in September.
- Michael D. Higgins vote has fallen slightly in the last month, down from 39% to 36%; while Mitchell and Gallagher share appears to be relatively stable.
- Davis also does very well on her second preference share, securing 20% of the second preference vote, suggesting that if she continues to make gains she could move ahead of Gallagher, and then put pressure on the other candidates when transfers are taken into account.
- Most voters (84%) believe that some form of debt forgiveness should be given by the state, but the largest proposition (54%) feel this should be strictly based on means testing of ability to pay, and not a blanket relief
Next Irish President (Latest betting)
8/13 Michael D.Higgins (from 4/7)
3/1 Gay Mitchell
13/2 Mary Davis
8/1 Sean Gallagher (from 9/1)
28/1 Mary Lou McDonald
28/1 Martin McGuinness
28/1 Michelle Gildernew
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