Ireland's birth rate - at last something we beat the Germans at

[Éireann go Brách]

I think to have 8 million people on this Island once more would be a fantastic achievement. It'll be a few more decades but it will happen this century.

Will Ireland’s population hit 12 million? Sailing to Byzantium

This is a very interesting article on Ireland trebling our population to 12 million.

Well he just takes land available and divdes it by people and compares
it to overcrowded countries like the UK and germany
Both these countries are ovecrowed( I have lived in both) and have environmental problems (like water supply etc)

I wonder what the environmental optimum population is
do the greens have an opinion or policy?
Also what effect 12 million living here would have on standard of living
Due we really want to live in apartments in crowded polluated mega cities.

The population of the whole island is now over 6 million.
I wonder guess theres a environmental and standard of living case to be made for capping it at 8 or 9 million.

[davehiggz]

The population of the whole island is now over 6 million.
I wonder guess theres a environmental and standard of living case to be made for capping it at 8 or 9 million.

Certainly not.

The Netherlands has a population density that is almost seven times our own. Replicated here the Republic of Ireland would have a population of 30,000,000.

The Netherlands came 16th on the world quality of life index and Ireland came first. This was in 2005 so it's completely inaccurate to today's situation but I believe that we could quite easily accommodate that many people if we are smarter about planning in the future.

[Red_93]

Certainly not.

The Netherlands has a population density that is almost seven times our own. Replicated here the Republic of Ireland would have a population of 30,000,000.

The Netherlands came 16th on the world quality of life index and Ireland came first. This was in 2005 so it's completely inaccurate to today's situation but I believe that we could quite easily accommodate that many people if we are smarter about planning in the future.

But why do we want more people? There are no benefits as far as I can see....

[davehiggz]

But why do we want more people? There are no benefits as far as I can see....

Well, if our population was say 5 times what it is today, we'll need at least twice as many centre's of excellence for cancer care. This would mean that people from Donegal would not have to travel all the way to Galway!

There's many other economies of scale for public services that come with an increased population.

[Red_93]

Well, if our population was say 5 times what it is today, we'll need at least twice as many centre's of excellence for cancer care. This would mean that people from Donegal would not have to travel all the way to Galway!

There's many other economies of scale for public services that come with an increased population.

Ah, but population growth tends to be concentrated in the urban centres. That's basically Dublin, which is already a primate city (generally a bad thing IMO). There is no guarantee that the population would grow significantly in Donegal. Let's make no bones about this, Donegal's a sh1thole. The roads and transport in general are crap, the terrain is very hilly, the weather's crap and geography ensures that it is cut off from the rest of the country. There would be little inward investment into Donegal, meaning few extra jobs. People go where the jobs are. It may just result in Dublin becoming even more overcrowded.

[asknoquestions]

If you google Germany's population pyramid you'll notice there are relatively few people aged around 65, corresponding to being born in 1945. Germany's birthrate was high during the first years of WW2 and then dropped off from about 1943 and didn't pick up again until the 50s. It's sort of the inverse of the UK's which picked up when Germany's was dropping.

Then there is a drop again in Germany in the 1960s/1970s due to there being fewer people of child-bearing age.

There was also a drop around 1989 presumably due to people of child bearing age from the east moving west and working instead of having children straight away.

Ireland's was also dropping in the 1980s and emigration was probably a factor then. Also, one of the factors that fuelled the economic growth in Ireland in the 1990s was the entry of a lot of women into the workforce. Now that the economy has slacked off a little bit people are probably finding that they have time for children.

[liamfoley]

It's slightly more complex than that. Yes, the prosperous West has much lower birth rates than the poorer East, but there are big variations within the West - and these variations do to some extent reflect societies. For instance, the Scandinavians, British, Irish and French all have healthy birth rates. The Germans, southern Europeans and eastern Europeans all have extremely low birth-rates. Russia is basically committing a slow demographic suicide. The reasons are pretty complex and vary between countries, but I gather they go something like this:

Germany - a complex about the Nazi era breeding mentality, and a lot of Leftie, hippie ideas about not needing children for a fulfilling life.

Southern European Catholic countries - old-fashioned attitudes towards women and child-care, which makes women down there reluctant to saddle themselves with kids.

Eastern Europe - damaged societies in which few women want to raise children. Russia is abortion central.

The reason the Brits, Scandis and French do well is because it's generally seen as okay for women to have kids and yet still go out to work in these societies, and child care facilities are generally very good, so women are happy to have children. You absolutely can have prosperity and high birth rates - but you need modern attitudes to women and good child-care to go with them.

The US trend is also higher than the Eastern/Southern European trend. Long term economic development depends on birth rates like the US one and the Irish.