stringjack said:
"The Fine Gael votes went exactly where you'd expect them to go."
This seems a bit at odds with your previous scepticism, stringjack, over "the assumption that Fine Gael and Labour voters are going to fall over themselves to transfer to one another's parties."
So just how likely do you think it is that they will be falling over themselves to transfer to one another next time out?
One thing you said that I agree with, stringjack, is that a bad election for FF is probably the Greens best hope (in terms of electoral strategy) for the next election.
FF dropping a seat is probably the only hope for Cuffe next time round in DL, and probably for Eamon Ryan in Dublin South as well.
You don't understand STV. Transfers don't stop on the 2nd preference you know.Originally Posted by TommyO'Brien
In pretty much every case, a Green TD pips a FF or FG candidate for a seat. That means that the Green TD has to get more transfers from the FG candidate than the FF candidate and vice versa. Given that a FG voter is likely to transfer to a GP candidate before a FF candidate, and vice versa, regardless of the political landscape of the time, the fact that the Greens are in government, regardless of whom they are in with, is immaterial to the impact of transfers on the number of seats they get.
My comment was about Phil Hogan being an idiot. She won her seat because he couldn't organise a piss-up in a brewery. He'll be running again in 2012, as will she. She probably won't win, but with Hogan in the mix, anybody could win a seat in Carlow-Kilkenny.
Cuffe will lose out because of the loss of a seat. Barrett's vote was based on the Baths issue, which doesn't exist anymore, unless you're telling me that there are about 6,000 Communist voters in DL.
The only time FG won 2 seats in DSE was under Garrett Fitzgerald, and the seat he won was the Labour seat, because he was from a Labour background. FG have never come within a country mile of a 2nd seat since. McDowell's vote will split between FG and Gormley, unless of course you're suggesting it will go to Ruairi Quinn.Ah yes, the fun of running like a sitting minister, like McDowell!Ganley will face a resurgent FG which will be aiming for two seats, a resurgent Labour in the area, and Chris Andrews. Gormley is at best 50:50.
Nora Owen lost her seat in the FG meltdown of 2002. Long service is as good a banker as any in politics.
3 FG seats in Dublin South? What f.ucking planet do you live on?
A demagogue is someone who will preach doctrines he knows to be untrue to men he knows to be idiots.
........ except John Paul Phelan (if Phil "my circumstances don't allow it" Hogan has any say in the matter)
"Always do right. This will gratify some people and astonish the rest." Mark Twain
“When a government is dependent upon bankers for money, they and not the leaders of the government control the situation, since the hand that gives is above the hand that takes. Money has no motherland; financiers are without patriotism and without decency; their sole object is gain.” Napoléon Bonaparte
Lads,
This thread is just w4nk.
The same people who were predicting the demise of Fianna Fáil this time two years ago are now predicting the demise of the Greens.
What happens on the day will happen on the day, and it will be based on factors that we can't even begin to imagine this far out (other than Enda's suitability to be Taoiseach - which will always be a factor until Deasy & Coveney shaft him, and then it will become his successor's suitability to be Taoiseach).
Most people missed it last week, but Eamon Ryan, with no fanfare, and less media commentary, delivered something nobody thought would ever be delivered.
How the achievements of the Greens get presented at the hustings will be a lot different to how they are being presented at the moment, and the Party that will suffer is not the one you would (currently) think.
I'm pretty confident that the Greens will come back with more than 6 seats in the 31st Dáil, but it is entirely possible that only 3 of them will be current TDs.
"Always do right. This will gratify some people and astonish the rest." Mark Twain
“When a government is dependent upon bankers for money, they and not the leaders of the government control the situation, since the hand that gives is above the hand that takes. Money has no motherland; financiers are without patriotism and without decency; their sole object is gain.” Napoléon Bonaparte
Funny then, Tommy, that I have heard not a whisper of such talk among their green colleagues, and I reckon I'm in much closer contact with them than you are.
Funny, also, that the two 'long-shots' that you deride above are considered to be amongst the most effective constituency workers (you know, the kind of work that gets people elected?) if not in the Greens than in the Dail.
Making stuff up on politics.ie may make you feel big and clever, but you're also quite likely to be corrected by people who genuinely know what Mary White's colleagues think of her future in the Dail, and what people "within the Greens" think about Paul Gogarty's constituency organisation and election prospects.
Paul was the most comfortably elected green TD in 2007.
What changes, and where exactly is de Burca unlikely to get elected - given that she's running in Dublin for the European elections?"Boyle is screwed by changes in the constituency, and de Burca is unlikely to get elected.
Come general election time, the Greens will be going to the doors with five years of experience in Government during which they demonstrated how they had the best performing ministers over that period. They will also have had much more public exposure than they have ever had before. And they will be able to point to a comprehensive list of policy achievements - the very same things they said they wanted to achieve when they asked their members to endorse their entry into government.
They will also be much more robust in demanding first preference votes this time around, given that every other party in pre-election canvassing claimed that John Gormley, Eamon Ryan and Dan Boyle were safe as houses and thus stole vital number ones.
When it comes to polling day for the next general and the Greens can point to the tens of thousands of new jobs that their policies have created - as opposed to the tens of thousands of cubic metres of opportunistic hot air produced by Inda and Gilmore in the same period - they'll do alright.
This misunderstands Boyd Barrett's appeal.
The baths issue was indeed important to him, but the key point is that his profile in the constituency is not that of a "communist". He stands as that nice well spoken young man who doesn't like the war in Iraq and does like the sea front, not as a revolutionary socialist. The baths issue may be gone, but he has a high profile and can no doubt keep plugging away endlessly at local issues, particularly now that we know that services of all kinds are going to be in the firing line for the next few years.
He will get a big vote in the council elections, in my view.
With Liz O'Donnell gone, there's a yummy mummy quota in Dublin South which will likely land with Éamon Ryan.
He ran as a 'Baths' candidate.
If he's such a nice bloke, how come he only got 876 votes in 2002, at a time when FG were giving away votes for free?
A demagogue is someone who will preach doctrines he knows to be untrue to men he knows to be idiots.
Dunlaoghaire:
1 seat reduction. FF to lose.
1 FF 1 FG 1 Lab with the last seat between FG (but who?) Lab (but who?) Green and Boyd-Barrett. Cuffe not as finished as people say. Look at his electoral history. Look at South-East Inner City 1999. Houdini.
Dublin South:
It's true what someone said above. Many Liz O'Donnell voters to go to Eamonn Ryan.
Also he is the singular success of this cabinet. He'll probably top the poll.
If there is a future, it will be Green.
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