Greens: ZERO seats in the 31st Dail

[macedo]

Going after the weakest last you mean.

The October Budget saw reductions in the budgets of every Department except Health, Education, and Social Welfare.

And as you well know, the Medical Cards issue related to people who were on very high incomes - and that includes the Doctors who were being paid ridiculous amounts of money for having pensioners on their lists regardless of whether they attended the Doctor or not (say thank you to Fine Gael Health Spokesman Dr. James Reilly for that little scam!)

Education got an increase of €300 million in October - of which all of it went on pay increases.


On April 7th there is no option but to cut back in Health, Education and Social Welfare.

But at least we tried!

My memory of the October budget is Green ministers and TDs giving a standing ovation to a budget that left inflated payments to doctors in situ and attacked services to a vulnerable group - the aged. A week later the same government "discovered" they could make the same savings by renogiating payments to doctors and encouraging the use of generic drugs. This discovery had nothing to do with the Greens and everyhing to do with Grey Power on the streets and Joe Behan in Arklow

[stringjack]

Superficial and wrong. FG and Labour now account for over 50% of support. Add in FF and that accounts for up to 80%. The Greens won't get the necessary transfers from those parties so will be reduced, along with SF and independents to trying to assemble enough support in a battle with everyone else for 1 in 5 voters.

Your conclusion rests on two rather shaky premises: that Fianna Fáil won't have transfers to spare, and that the Greens won't get transfers from Fine Gael and Labour.

In the first case, it's an entirely open question how well Fianna Fáil will be able to manage its vote this time out. If we assume that it will run candidates for all the seats it holds, and also that it will lose some seats, then it follows fairly straightforwardly that those Fianna Fáil candidates who don't get elected will have quite a number of votes potentially available for transfer. If we also assume that Fianna Fáil voters aren't just going to plump, and that a significant proportion of its voters who might be tempted away to Fine Gael and Labour will already have voted for those parties in the first place, then there seems to be a fairly sizable potential pool from which the Greens, Sinn Féin, and independents may draw. Ultimately, the outcome for the Greens probably depends on how the differential fall in the various constituents of Fianna Fáil support plays out in the particular constituencies where Green candidates are viable. If core Fianna Fáil support is disproportionately working class and rural, then the Greens are probably in greater trouble.

In the second case, while Fine Gael activists and ABFFers have been rather annoyed at the Greens for some time now, it's far less clear what floating voters (many of whom voted for Fianna Fáil at the last election) think of the party. Many of the people who vote for Fine Gael and Labour in this election will not be core supporters, and there's no reason to assume that the Greens will be transfer-toxic to those voters, any more than there is to indulge the assumption that Fine Gael and Labour voters are going to fall over themselves to transfer to one another's parties. A significant proportion of the voters for those parties have always considered the other party a necessary evil, at best.

[Ronanr]

Stringjack said:

"....while Fine Gael activists and ABFFers have been rather annoyed at the Greens for some time now, it's far less clear what floating voters (many of whom voted for Fianna Fáil at the last election) think of the party. Many of the people who vote for Fine Gael and Labour in this election will not be core supporters, and there's no reason to assume that the Greens will be transfer-toxic to those voters, any more than there is to indulge the assumption that Fine Gael and Labour voters are going to fall over themselves to transfer to one another's parties. A significant proportion of the voters for those parties have always considered the other party a necessary evil, at best."

You have some good points there stringjack, however, i think that if the Greens go into the next election whilst still in coalition with FF the likelihood of them getting transfers from FG or Labour voters is pretty low. Once we get into election mode,most people will start to look at the choices offered with a view to voting for "a government". If we have a FF/Green coalition up against a putative FG/Lab coalition (particularly if there is an understanding that FG and Lab are planning to go into coalition together after the election) that "ABFF mentality" could spread out surprisingly strongly during the course of campaign to more than just the FG and Labour activist but to their supporters as a whole.


And despite what you say about the voters of the FG and Labour being less enamoured of the other party than the activists, the fact is that the voters for those parties have shown a fair propensity to "follow the party line" when it comes to ballot day.

A good example of this is Galway East, where the Labour candidate was eliminated when all the FG and FF candidates were still standing.

Now, FG and FF had both got 39% of the first preference vote, so one would expect that all things being equal, FG and FF would both get a roughly equal share of the Labour transfers.

The actual percentages were 16% for FF and 51% for FF.

This suggest to me that the Labour voters "knew their duty" in the situation.


If I was a Green party supporter I would get precious little comfort from that.

[Ronanr]

And for another example from the last election (from an urban constituency this time where Labour were the dominant of the two ABFF parties) look at the quite stunning degree of transfer from FG to Labour in Dublin North-West when Tormey was eliminated.

And I think there was no love lost between Labour supporters and Tormey in that constituency in the run-up to the election, even though Tormey was a former Labour party member.

[joemomma]

And I think there was no love lost between Labour supporters and Tormey in that constituency in the run-up to the election, even though Tormey was a former Labour party member.

Presumably you mean because Tormey was a former Labour party member.

[Ronanr]

Well, it could be either....activists tend to despise a turncoat, but ordinary voters (like stringjack is talking about) might have a fonder view of him because of his past affiliations.

I do not know, really.

The point I was making was that I did not think the massive propensity of Tormey's FG voters to give Roisin Shortall a second preference was not likely because the voters were thinking "I am sure Bill would want me to give his old mucker Roisin the no. 2..."

[stringjack]

You have some good points there stringjack, however, i think that if the Greens go into the next election whilst still in coalition with FF the likelihood of them getting transfers from FG or Labour voters is pretty low. Once we get into election mode,most people will start to look at the choices offered with a view to voting for "a government". If we have a FF/Green coalition up against a putative FG/Lab coalition (particularly if there is an understanding that FG and Lab are planning to go into coalition together after the election) that "ABFF mentality" could spread out surprisingly strongly during the course of campaign to more than just the FG and Labour activist but to their supporters as a whole.

That's certainly a problem. In a campaign, the Greens are going to have to declare their independence from Fianna Fáil while also avoiding alienating Fianna Fáil voters (something Michael McDowell seemed to fail at spectacularly). It remains to be seen whether it can run that sophisticated a campaign message, particularly as Fine Gael and Labour try to disrupt it. The PD case is probably instructive, however, as much in its differences as in its similarities. Part of the problem for the PDs at the last election (and its been a while since I looked at the numbers, so I may be wrong here) seemed to be that Fianna Fáil did too well. If Fianna Fáil don't lose enough seats to free up votes for Green candidates to collect, then again the party is in trouble. Equally, however, there's reason to think that Fianna Fáil will do worse in this election than in the last; and that Fine Gael and Labour will do better. The greater the increase in the Fine Gael and Labour vote, the softer that vote will be, and the more likely it will be to transfer more freely. Which brings us to...

This suggest to me that the Labour voters "knew their duty" in the situation.

If I was a Green party supporter I would get precious little comfort from that.

Core Labour voters seem to me to be much more likely to transfer in a disciplined fashion than floating voters or disaffected Fianna Fáil voters (and I'm not sure Galway East is a good predictor of the transfer behaviour of Labour voters in those constituencies in which Green candidates will be chasing seats).

[stringjack]

And for another example from the last election (from an urban constituency this time where Labour were the dominant of the two ABFF parties) look at the quite stunning degree of transfer from FG to Labour in Dublin North-West when Tormey was eliminated.

And I think there was no love lost between Labour supporters and Tormey in that constituency in the run-up to the election, even though Tormey was a former Labour party member.

Someone is going to have to run the numbers to actually get an answer on this. In Galway East, there wasn't a viable Green candidate, and the candidate that was there had already been eliminated by the time the Labour candidate went out. Similarly, in Dublin North West, when Tormey went out, the alternatives to Labour were two Fianna Fáil candidates and a Sinn Féin candidate. The Fine Gael votes went exactly where you'd expect them to go.

(With thanks to electionsireland.org. You guys rock.)

[Ronanr]

"Core Labour voters seem to me to be much more likely to transfer in a disciplined fashion than floating voters or disaffected Fianna Fáil voters (and I'm not sure Galway East is a good predictor of the transfer behaviour of Labour voters in those constituencies in which Green candidates will be chasing seats)."

Probably, but it is hard to get a clear example of patterns in Dublin because both Labour and FG both tend to have candidates there that survive until the final count.

However, the core Labour voters in the Dublin region were some of the ones most likely to give the Greens a second preference ahead of FG (IMHO) so their loss will be felt all the more keenly (also IMHO).

What might hit the Greens hardest in south county Dublin may be the defection of the "People Before Profit" and SF vote (for example, Gormley got 37% of the SF transfers in Dublin South East in 2007, and 49% of the very "leftie" dominated independent transfers).

[grassroots]

"That's certainly a problem. In a campaign, the Greens are going to have to declare their independence from Fianna Fáil while also avoiding alienating Fianna Fáil voters (something Michael McDowell seemed to fail at spectacularly). It remains to be seen whether it can run that sophisticated a campaign message, particularly as Fine Gael and Labour try to disrupt it.."

Does that meant to "try & deceive the electorate"