Red C poll suggests White will take seat in Carlow-Kilkenny

[Fnarr-Fnarr]

irishexaminer.com

I know the Nationalists last poll in 2002 (which was fake) did her real damage, but I think this one has to be good news for Mary White.

[QuizMaster]

It would be amazing, I hope it's true.

I don't think Carlow-Kilkenny or Mary White are typical of anything.
The Greens can't expect to do well in large rural constituencies for now anyway, but Mary White has a lot going for her.

She is the only candidate who canvasses support across both counties. The rest of them keep to their own county. She will get a certain amount of women's votes.
Also she is a member of the C of I, which can only help. It's not going to put off Green voters and will attract a certain number. It all adds up.

I'd love to see it.
Rural communities don't normally see the Green movement as their friend, but they are going nowhere with conventional farming, there are a lot of opportunities with some fresh thinking.

Does anyone know the Esperanto for "our day will come"?

[apkavanagh]

Given the last election and the experience with the Carlow Nationalist poll, I think these constituency polls need to be treated with a very big health warning. But as a result goes it's good for her....she's the highest ranked Carlow candidate so won't lose votes on the basis of a "vote for MJ or Carla will get no TDs" approach as last time around...she's also shown to be a very realistic contender but not to the extent that voters may think she's a 'sure thing'. I'm just wondering, in this instance, whether Carlow may have been over-polled this time around (or it was probably the reverse last time out) because Carlow candidates are polling much better in this poll than they did in the infamous 2002 entity.

[Fnarr-Fnarr]

Given the last election and the experience with the Carlow Nationalist poll, I think these constituency polls need to be treated with a very big health warning. But as a result goes it's good for her....she's the highest ranked Carlow candidate so won't lose votes on the basis of a "vote for MJ or Carla will get no TDs" approach as last time around...she's also shown to be a very realistic contender but not to the extent that voters may think she's a 'sure thing'. I'm just wondering, in this instance, whether Carlow may have been over-polled this time around (or it was probably the reverse last time out) because Carlow candidates are polling much better in this poll than they did in the infamous 2002 entity.

Obviously has to be treated with caution, but Red C are a reputable company.
In 2002 election, the 4 main Carlow candidate got 39% of the vote. In this poll, they get 35%, so I don't think that points to Carlow being overpolled.

Further, Mary will get a strong vote in KK as well as from the Carlow side.

[kerrynorth]

Can someone post up the full poll result as I note that no figure is given for Hogan. From the figures presented the final seat appears to still be up for grabs between FF/FG/LAB. With a lot of tranfers to come their way it looks as if FG/LAB are in the strongest position for the final seat!

[meriwether]

The quoted candidates amount to 85%, so Hogan should be in and around 15%.

[Fnarr-Fnarr]

Aylward (FF) - 20
McGuiness (FF) - 16
White (GP) - 12
Nolan (FF) - 10
Phelan (FG) - 9
Townsend (Lab) - 7
Browne (FG) - 6
O'Brien (Lab) - 5

Your right, no sign of Hogan, though the article seems to imply that he is the second elected.

[kerrynorth]

Aylward (FF) - 20
McGuiness (FF) - 16
White (GP) - 12
Nolan (FF) - 10
Phelan (FG) - 9
Townsend (Lab) - 7
Browne (FG) - 6
O'Brien (Lab) - 5

Your right, no sign of Hogan, though the article seems to imply that he is the second elected.

Surely 3rd seat for Hogan? But if there is only 15% left, how did the PDs and SF poll?

[The Deise Man]

The quoted candidates amount to 85%, so Hogan should be in and around 15%.

So the PD's and SF scored 0%. Shows how useless the poll is..

[The Deise Man]

Aylward (FF) - 20
McGuiness (FF) - 16
White (GP) - 12
Nolan (FF) - 10
Phelan (FG) - 9
Townsend (Lab) - 7
Browne (FG) - 6
O'Brien (Lab) - 5

Your right, no sign of Hogan, though the article seems to imply that he is the second elected.

Surely 3rd seat for Hogan? But if there is only 15% left, how did the PDs and SF poll?

I would treat this poll with a serious health warning. Personally I think Phelan will do much better than 9% and if he gets sufficient transfers from Browne will pip Mary White for a seat. If FG do not win two seats here than they will be in big trouble nationally.