Galway City Council 2009

[cloon man]

Of the 15 current members, who could loose their seats in 09?. My Prediction is . Mullholand, FG (wont run). Callinan, SF (hasn't been seen in NE Ward since his election and is the source of most of the problems at meetings). Colette Connolly, LAB (party won't hold 2 in West Ward and Cameron is much stronger). Conneely, FG (another trouble maker who only works the publicity machine) Crowe, FF (Taoiseach nominee to Senate ?). Leahy, FF (hasn't made any impression since she joined the Council) O'Brolacain, Green (I think FF will win back the seat). If i'm right there could be 7 new faces on the council in 2 years.

[FutureTaoiseach]

I expect us to do very well here given the performance in Galway West in 2007.

[Decko]

Of the 15 current members, who could loose their seats in 09?. My Prediction is . Mullholand, FG (wont run). Callinan, SF (hasn't been seen in NE Ward since his election and is the source of most of the problems at meetings). Colette Connolly, LAB (party won't hold 2 in West Ward and Cameron is much stronger). Conneely, FG (another trouble maker who only works the publicity machine) Crowe, FF (Taoiseach nominee to Senate ?). Leahy, FF (hasn't made any impression since she joined the Council) O'Brolacain, Green (I think FF will win back the seat). If i'm right there could be 7 new faces on the council in 2 years.

id say your right - there will be lots of changes although party strengths may end up similar eg 3 FG maybe 3 or 4 FF 3 or 4 Lab with Lyons PD in Salthill and a PD in NorthEast Ward safe, SF safe in NE (might pick up in West)

[TheJudge]

Of the 15 current members, who could loose their seats in 09?. My Prediction is . Mullholand, FG (wont run). Callinan, SF (hasn't been seen in NE Ward since his election and is the source of most of the problems at meetings). Colette Connolly, LAB (party won't hold 2 in West Ward and Cameron is much stronger). Conneely, FG (another trouble maker who only works the publicity machine) Crowe, FF (Taoiseach nominee to Senate ?). Leahy, FF (hasn't made any impression since she joined the Council) O'Brolacain, Green (I think FF will win back the seat). If i'm right there could be 7 new faces on the council in 2 years.

Crowe depends on whether or not he gets a nominee from the Taoiseach.
NOB will hold his seat easily if he runs.
From what I've heard about Mary Leahy, she is personally popular although not particularly popular in FF as apparently she never canvassed a door in her life.It is rumoured (on good source) that Brian Walsh will leave politics before the locals.
Danny Callanan will also hold his seat as will Colette Connolly I feel.
Ann Marie Caroll will probably take Padraig Conneely's seat.
I'd expect a new FG candidate to hold Mulholland's seat.
Derek Nolan (young Labour guy) did pretty well last time out, was last man standing in East and North ward and may well take a seat this time.

[TheJudge]

I expect us to do very well here given the performance in Galway West in 2007.

You'll hold your 3 current seats, which is very good for the PDs considering it as many as FG/FF have at the moment.Edited to say I forgot McDonnell was probably retiring + if he goes PDs will quite possibly lose one seat.

[galwaygirl]

First point is we should be wary of predictions. Who would have thought in May 2004 Labour would have twice as many seats as FF.

FF-they'll bring back old faces-Hanley, Martin Quinn et al
FG-will run losing candidates-McNeilis, Gantly etc. Would expect Brian Walsh to retire given he didn't and prob won't run in future general elections so why hang around in the local scene.
Labour-will be difficult to keep two in the west ward
SF-could get two, west and N/E
Green-also could get two or even three. Cunnane in the N/E did ok as did McCann in west
PD's will keep their three and if geraghty runs for them in the west again, they could even get four

I hate to say it but Connelly prob will get reelected. He may be very annoying but there is a crowd out there who believe in the 'good man, you sock it to them' nonesense.

Every area is competitive but i see my old college patch of the west ward being competitive. Two strong FF, Two Labour one strong FG, Green, SF and PD. Eight strong candidates and only four places

[Decko]

Every area is competitive but i see my old college patch of the west ward being competitive. Two strong FF, Two Labour one strong FG, Green, SF and PD. Eight strong candidates and only four places

id go for 1 FF 1 lab 1 FG (yes id agree Connelly has a profile now he didnt have before) and the last between FF SF and LAB and depending on the mood of the elctorate at the time

[AndrewM]

Obviously, very hard to predict. BUT............

Who'll retire/not be running : McDonell & Mulholland almost certain not to run.
Who may not run, be in a position to run : O'Brolchain, Callanan, Walsh

There isn't too much 'young blood' evident in the PDs, so they may not be able to replace McDonell. The Greens may be able to attract high quality candidates since they're in power, FF should be able to find someone for the South Ward, FG should be able to hold their own, Ann-Marie Carrolls poor performance raises questions about whether she'll run, and there could be boundries redrawn by then.

If poll was held today:

FF: 4
FG: 3
Grn: 1
Lab [incl Connolly]: 4
PD: 2
SF: 1
Ind: 0

[galwaygirl]

Interesting comments Andrew, Mulholland I get but why would you suspect McDonell of retiring? My impression was the guy lived for politics

Overall the numbers look right as regards predictions...says us in 2007!

Boundries, good point. All wards bar south could be effected. N/E with all the new estates and the west with the developments in Barna.

Yound blood in the PD's, didn't they have Creaven who polled well twice.
Leahy is interesting given that no election was ever involved, anything could happen she could top the poll or bomb.

My one wish is that the existing cllr's who are not media whores (b.walsh, j.connolly, d.lyons) will do well

[SeanG]

All wards bar south could be effected. N/E with all the new estates and the west with the developments in Barna.

Actually you're getting your wards confused: South Ward takes in Claddagh, Salthill and all of Knocknacarra as far as Barna Woods/Cappagh Road. West ward is basically Shantalla, Westside, Newcastle and Rahoon. North & East ward is everything east of the Corrib. Could be changes to South Ward from 4 seats to 5 and decline of West from 4 to 3. Not sure who makes or when any decisions could be made on boundaries and seat numbers.

Generally think you're right about Colette Connolly under threat from SF's Anne Marie Carroll. Unfortunately Padraig Conneely will hold on because 1.) There is a FG seat in West ward
2.) There're enough people suckered into that "Fair play - giving it to the man/Corpo/whoever" ************************e that the local media is complicit in allowing him away with.

Any thoughts on who will replace Mulholland who is almost definitely retiring?