FG V PD in Galway West

[AndrewM]

While we're far from certain to take a seat in Galway, there could be a real battle between FG and the PDs for the last seat. How do people see it going?

Noel Grealish has been a better TD. Better coverage, better at working his area and didn't drop out of the race for a few months! He has taken all the attention for the proposed new Garda station on the eastside whereas McCormack has been seen to do little. The PDs also have a better ticket, indeed I would say each of their candidates is better then their counterpart. Anyone is better then Cllr. Kyne, ditto with Healy-Eames. And Lyons seems like a good vote getter who has a solid base in Salthill/Knocknacarra.

FG have a few things going for them. Obviously there's the national performance of each party. But their organisation locally is said to be quite divided. Declan McDonnell [PD] isn't running this time. Considering he got 24% if the Mervue vote in 2002 this could be picked up by McCormack. Someone has to take the anti-government vote in Oranmore and I suspect Healy-Eames [who is working quite hard] should be able to get a good slice of it.
The question then is will her transfers go to her running mate [who she criticised for getting back in the race] or one of the more local candidates such as Grealish. Something similar happened in 2002 to give Grealish the seat, is there a repeat in the cards?

Such a victory would almost doom the FG/Lab/Grn alliance. Opinions anyone? Please note that the last TNS/MRBI poll in the constituency didn't have Lyons or Welby on the ticket.

[Defeated Romanticist]

If the PDs loose a seat in Galway Wst they will loose it to FF. Their just isn't the votes for three rainbow TDs in GW considering the strength of the govt. in GW.
If, and I beleive he will Ó Broilchain takes a seat in GW he will take it off FG or even Lab, (Michael D is far from safe)

[FutureTaoiseach]

I voted PD but am very concerned the water issue could wreck things for us if we are blamed.

[Shepherd]

The government parties in Galway should get hammered over the water situation. It's just not good enough to say that it isn't their fault. If it's never anybody's fault in this country, then why do we pay our ministers so well? The logic, and it's a fair logic, is that if you pay peanuts you get monkeys. We pay enough to get good ministers who should at least take the rap for what happens on their watch. At least, if they lose their seats, it'll make the new guys realise that its a serious issue.

[Mozalini]

I don't see this as a straight scrap whatsoever. I think Noel Grealish is dead in the water. There are a number of reasosn for this.

1. Donal Lyons - The electorate want to back a winner. There was a feeling last time around that Lyons was in with a great chance of a seat. He isn't now and he knows it himself. He will not campaign nearly as hard as 2002. He is only running to consolidate his council seat. His campaign hasn't kicked off yet and so there is too much ground to make up. He will lose a lot of Knocknacarra votes to O' Brolacahain and will be squeezed by people like Crowe and Eames as well. I predict that he will lose about 500+ votes and come in around the 1200 mark. His transfer percentage to Grealish will be signficantly down and I would say that Lyons' elimination will virtually elect O' Brolacháin.

2. Thomas Welby - He will not win as many votes as Declan McDonnell. He will probably be eliminated first and his trasfers will again not be as high to Grealish . They will help Seán Kyne as much as they will help Grealish.

3. Noel Grealish - Undoubtedly his FPV will increase due to his profile being raised since he was a TD. He will come in around the 3000 mark. He will gain new votes, but lose old votes to Eames in the Oranmore area.

4. Transfers - I've said it up there but to re-iterate, transfers were key to Grealish last time around. He only got 2,400 FPV's and still managed to get elected! The anti-government swing will cost him his seat.

5. Pádraig McCormack - As you rightly said he will sweep up votes in Mervue and increase his vote in Renmore this time around. Aside from that, no-one should underestimate his personal vote. He is very well liked, respected in the city and has a loyal core vote. His constituency work will pay off for him without a doubt.

6. Michael Crowe - The reason I said it wasn't a straight FG v PD scrap was because I think Crowe is the biggest threat to our seat. He will win more votes than Grealish like Cox did and transfer better from across the board from the likes of Carroll, Connolly and be a bigger benificiary of the surplus.

It really could go any way but my prediction (and it's different from a wild one I made a while back) is;
1. O' Cuiv
2. Higgins
3. O' Brolacháin
4. McCormack
5. Fahey

[Mozalini]

The government parties in Galway should get hammered over the water situation. It's just not good enough to say that it isn't their fault. If it's never anybody's fault in this country, then why do we pay our ministers so well? The logic, and it's a fair logic, is that if you pay peanuts you get monkeys. We pay enough to get good ministers who should at least take the rap for what happens on their watch. At least, if they lose their seats, it'll make the new guys realise that its a serious issue.

Yes and people are fuming on the doorsteps. I think Fahey will bear the brunt of it to be honest.

[DaBigFella]

The government parties in Galway should get hammered over the water situation. It's just not good enough to say that it isn't their fault. If it's never anybody's fault in this country, then why do we pay our ministers so well? The logic, and it's a fair logic, is that if you pay peanuts you get monkeys. We pay enough to get good ministers who should at least take the rap for what happens on their watch. At least, if they lose their seats, it'll make the new guys realise that its a serious issue.

I think the FF and PD candidates are going to pay a significant price for the water situation in Galway. From looking at the respective campaigns I think the PD's will lose a seat to the Greens.

I think Healy Eames will win the seat for FG. Her campaign is far more high profile than McCormacks. She is also benefitting from being the only woman in the race with a real prospect of a seat.

From looking at the numbers from the last election the PD's are going to find it very difficult to sustain any drop in their vote and retain the seat. Healy Eames is taking a significant number of PD votes from Grealish on the east of the city.

I think the labour seat is fairly safe, if they do their work over the next few weeks. Frank Fahey is going to see a significant drop in his vote this time around. He's losing votes to his two running mates, but he should still retain the seat.

1. O' Cuiv (Elected after the 1st Count)
2. Higgins (4th Count)
3. Fahey (5th Count)
4. Healy Eames (6th Count)
5. O' Brolacháin (7th Count)

[AndrewM]

Oh good, an actual debate has started on this topic. I so feared a FG v Gov bitchfest.

All valid points Mozalini. I wouldn't underestimate Donal Lyons though as he has remained high profile and has all of the west of the city to himself as a councillor [unlike when Paul Colleran was around] so his base may have expanded. Also, he's starting his campaign at the same point in the election as last time.

Dont know how Welby and McDonnell compare head to head, but the former is from a less competitive [though smaller] area. Will be interesting to see who'll pull in more votes.

'DaBigFella'. Healy-Eames is coming across as quite well in the media, but the 'word on the ground' is that she's coming across poorly on the doorstep, and this counts for a lot. I really don't see her making an impact. But I do agree that she is outshining McCormack in the media, and certainly wants the seat more then him. Driving ambition in such a tough fight is a very important advantage.

[candid]

2. Thomas Welby - He will not win as many votes as Declan McDonnell. He will probably be eliminated first and his trasfers will again not be as high to Grealish . They will help Seán Kyne as much as they will help Grealish.

That one observation is enough to disqualify you from making any further comments on politics in Galway West. If you believe that Sean Kyne has any remote chance of out polling Thomas Welby then you have no clue about politics on the ground in Connemara.

[Blackadder]

Yeah, this one will be tight.

I would not be overly surprised if FHE takes the FG seat.

She has been putting in the hours and I am sure combined with the upturn in FG's fortunes a Fine Gael candidate will be returned with a higher party vote than last time out.