Ceasefire in the middle east?

[Objecteev]

With the UN approving the 1701 resolution, which both the Leabnese government and the Israeli government is stating it as a political win and as an agreement that serve their side's interests (it sounds good - a win-win situation - no?) we are 13 hours away from the moment where the cessation of violence is due to begin. Note that the UN does not refer to it as a 'ceasefire' but only a 'cessation of violence'.

While we are observing the sides preparing for the process to take place, we start hearing notes from Lebanon about internal political crisis following a new and final decision by Hassen Nasrallah which says now that his organization will as a matter of fact not put down their weapons, despite his approval this and the approval of the resolution a day ago, which was quite specific about implications to Hezballah. Following this development, Lebanese army chief said the army will not be able to move into the territory..

While this is only one event that is not yet over, the question remains..
Are we seeing a real cessation of violence followed by ceasefire and then peace and disarming of all militias in Lebanon and a new sovereign, responsible, accountable and peaceful Lebanon? Or are we witnesses to the beginning of the crumbling of the 1701 resolution and the eventual breaking of another conflict, but this time bigger and more encompassing that will include the entire Lebanon as a side?

What do you predict will happen?
What do you think are the strong and weak points of the UN resolution?
What do you think are the strong and weak points in reality that will effect the success in reaching the goals of the resolution and following peace between the country?

[edifice.]

Israel hasd not secured its military/political objectives in the invasion due to Hizbollah's determined and unexpected resistance. Hizbollah is quite entitled to a political resolution based on this reality.

[Objecteev]

Israel hasd not secured its military/political objectives in the invasion due to Hizbollah's determined and unexpected resistance. Hizbollah is quite entitled to a political resolution based on this reality.

How is that a prediction on the future and the effects of the 1701 resolution?

[edifice.]

Israel hasd not secured its military/political objectives in the invasion due to Hizbollah's determined and unexpected resistance. Hizbollah is quite entitled to a political resolution based on this reality.

How is that a prediction on the future and the effects of the 1701 resolution?

Its a prediction on how Hizbollah will view any proposals or resolutions put to it.

[Objecteev]

[quote=edifice.]

Israel hasd not secured its military/political objectives in the invasion due to Hizbollah's determined and unexpected resistance. Hizbollah is quite entitled to a political resolution based on this reality.

How is that a prediction on the future and the effects of the 1701 resolution?

Its a prediction on how Hizbollah will view any proposals or resolutions put to it.[/quote:6cfbls5g]
What do you think will happen to the Lebanese government and institution when they will have to face the resistence of Hezballah as you predict?
Will they go into a fight with the Hezballah? Or is it too fragile and dangerous for them and therefore they will refrain from doing so, and by that breach the 1701 resolution? Will help come from the new UNIFIL forces? Or will it just observe the breach?

[edifice.]

What do you think will happen to the Lebanese government and institution when they will have to face the resistence of Hezballah as you predict?

The Lebanese govt has praised the resistance of Hizbollah.


[quote:1bv4eps9]Will they go into a fight with the Hezballah? Or is it too fragile and dangerous for them and therefore they will refrain from doing so, and by that breach the 1701 resolution? Will help come from the new UNIFIL forces? Or will it just observe the breach?

[/quote:1bv4eps9]

You do realise Israel is involved here? You seem to be directing the debate toward a scenario wherein Israel is a blameless bystander.

[DSCH]

But Objecteev, if its a "ceasefire" rather than a ceasefire, how could the Israeli govt be naive enough to "agree" to it?

Its funny how in the last hours before the "ceasefire" both sides are stepping up the intensity of the politically motivated violence. Obviously a few quick overs can be squeezed in before the end of play.

[Objecteev]

But Objecteev, if its a "ceasefire" rather than a ceasefire, how could the Israeli govt be naive enough to "agree" to it?

Its funny how in the last hours before the "ceasefire" both sides are stepping up the intensity of the politically motivated violence. Obviously a few quick overs can be squeezed in before the end of play.

The quotes was not to knock down the term. It was simply a quote and refered to the fact that the resolution is about cessation of violence and not about the exact meaning of the term 'ceasefire'. (I changhed the title)

As for how is Israel taking it? I guess Israel thinks it is time to let the Lebanese government try to take control over it's land. This is what Israel hopes for. This one of the main goals of Israel in this agreement - the disarming of all militias (namely Hezballah) and full sovereignty of Lebanon.
So hope is allowed to take over. Fears aside for now. And there are great fears that this agreement will blow up. If you ask me, it is very likely to.
The Lebanese army chief officially said he will not agree to send his troops in if Hezballah doesn't hand over the weapons and Hezballah said that it is their final decision that they would not. Then, a spokesman for the Lebanese government in an interview to the LBC TV openly blamed Hezballah for toying with the Lebanese goernment - first saying they agree to to the resolution and now saying it wont, after the Lebanese government already said it will abide by it.
There is a grave political crisis now in Lebanon. It is one that is very important and crucial and therefore interesting to follow closely.

Your assesement of the violence in the hours right before the agreement kicks in is true. This is a classic (very predicted) course of things. Unfortunatelly that is how humans act. Always did.

[jady88]

Israel hasd not secured its military/political objectives in the invasion due to Hizbollah's determined and unexpected resistance. Hizbollah is quite entitled to a political resolution based on this reality.

What is wrong with you?

Hizbollah is entitled to nothing. Yes this ceasation or whatever allows them some breathing space but they are filth. Scum and that is it. The sooner their leaders and avid follers are driven into the desert and burnt to nothing the better for the world.

The loosers in this resolution are the Lebonese who are stilled saddled with the vile, repugnant and doomed terrorist organisation Hezbollah. I only hope that the Lebonan will take it upon themselves to obliterate, without mercy, this disgusting villianous organisation.

[eurocrat]

Are the fates of the kidnapped soldeiers linked in any way to the ceasefire? (remember them?)

I still cant see what Isreal have gained by this offensive.