2009 to be the BNP's breakthrough year?

[Trefor1.1]

The BNP has been doing quite well in a series of council by elections recently. They've one a few times, but they've polled heavily on a number of occasions without winning. One of the reasons for this is that people tend to vote tactically to keep them out - & this is easy to do under the British First Past the Post system.

In the Euro elections the De Hondt PR system is used, & it's virtually impossible to vote tactically within that particular system.

Now you don't need huge numbers of votes to get elected under De Hondt. On the basis of the 2004 vote these were the rough percentages a party would need to get a seat in the different electoral regions of the UK.

East Midlands 12.9%
Eastern 8.4%
London 7.7%
North East 12.2%
North West 6.8%
South East 7.0%
South West 9.2%
West Midlands 8.8%
Yorkshire & the Humber 8.8%
Scotland 8.8%
Wales 10.5%

It's possible of course that more than this will be needed - but not much. Griffin would be sure to be elected on 9% in North West

Turnout will be lower this time than it was in 2004 as the Euros will coincide with far fewer local elections (local democracy in England is crazily complex). This will help the BNP - as will the likely collapse of the UKIP vote (they did well last time on the back of an orange coloured lunatic called Killroy silk).

The following is the breakdown of the BNP vote in 2004, with the UKIP vote in brackets.

East Midlands 6.5% (26.1%)
Eastern - 4.3% (19.6%)
London - 4% (12.3%)
North East - 6.4% (12.2%)
North West - 6.4% (12.2%)
South East - 2.9% (19.5%)
South West - 3% (22.6%)
West Midlands - 7.5% (17.5%)
Yorkshire & the Humber - 8% (14.5%)
Scotland – 1.7% (6.7%)
Wales - 3% (10.5%)

Add to all this the fact that there's a stinker of a recession on & that Labour will be pi*sing working class votes all over the place & things look rather good for the BNP - they could get four or more for that matter. Perhaps they'll end up with more representation in Europe than any of the Irish parties.

Disturbing times.

[Catalpa]

The BNP has been doing quite well in a series of council by elections recently. They've one a few times, but they've polled heavily on a number of occasions without winning. One of the reasons for this is that people tend to vote tactically to keep them out - & this is easy to do under the British First Past the Post system.

In the Euro elections the De Hondt PR system is used, & it's virtually impossible to vote tactically within that particular system.

Now you don't need huge numbers of votes to get elected under De Hondt. On the basis of the 2004 vote these were the rough percentages a party would need to get a seat in the different electoral regions of the UK.

East Midlands 12.9%
Eastern 8.4%
London 7.7%
North East 12.2%
North West 6.8%
South East 7.0%
South West 9.2%
West Midlands 8.8%
Yorkshire & the Humber 8.8%
Scotland 8.8%
Wales 10.5%

It's possible of course that more than this will be needed - but not much. Griffin would be sure to be elected on 9% in North West

Turnout will be lower this time than it was in 2004 as the Euros will coincide with far fewer local elections (local democracy in England is crazily complex). This will help the BNP - as will the likely collapse of the UKIP vote (they did well last time on the back of an orange coloured lunatic called Killroy silk).

The following is the breakdown of the BNP vote in 2004, with the UKIP vote in brackets.

East Midlands 6.5% (26.1%)
Eastern - 4.3% (19.6%)
London - 4% (12.3%)
North East - 6.4% (12.2%)
North West - 6.4% (12.2%)
South East - 2.9% (19.5%)
South West - 3% (22.6%)
West Midlands - 7.5% (17.5%)
Yorkshire & the Humber - 8% (14.5%)
Scotland – 1.7% (6.7%)
Wales - 3% (10.5%)

Add to all this the fact that there's a stinker of a recession on & that Labour will be pi*sing working class votes all over the place & things look rather good for the BNP - they could get four or more for that matter. Perhaps they'll end up with more representation in Europe than any of the Irish parties.

Disturbing times.

Interesting times too - could the BNP end up being the Sex Pistols of British Politics?

Anarchy in the UK anyone?

[Trefor1.1]

Interesting times too - could the BNP end up being the Sex Pistols of British Politics?

Anarchy in the UK anyone?

I sort of thought you'd be along Catalpa.

[Lord Deputy of Listowel]

Let us hope that this is not merely a flash in the pan and that English nationalism is about to assert itself and counter the ever menacing treat of Islamic extremism and domination.

[peader odonnell]

can someone tell me please when the uk abandoned first past the post for the euros?

[Pastradamus]

Yes, The BNP is making frightening Gains based more then anything on hatred of Immigration and obviously on labours incompetence. By the looks of things they will definetly remain the 4th party of the UK closing in on the liberals.

P.s Peadar O Donnell im not sure if they did abandon it (I could be wrong) but the proportional representation system is in place in NI.

[Trefor1.1]

Let us hope that this is not merely a flash in the pan and that English nationalism is about to assert itself and counter the ever menacing treat of Islamic extremism and domination.

It isn't really English nationalist.

[pogon]

It isn't really English nationalist.

Indeed.

They have a surprising amount of support in North Wales.

BBC NEWS | UK | Wales | Record Welsh election for the BNP

[blinding]

New Labour abandoned the british working class.

Where else is there for them to turn

It is remarkable that it has taken so long for this breakthrough to happen but it is here now.

In Ireland FF and Labour have never represented the working class but there has been little alternative.

[Ah Well]

The BNP has been doing quite well in a series of council by elections recently. They've one a few times, but they've polled heavily on a number of occasions without winning. One of the reasons for this is that people tend to vote tactically to keep them out - & this is easy to do under the British First Past the Post system.

In the Euro elections the De Hondt PR system is used, & it's virtually impossible to vote tactically within that particular system.

Now you don't need huge numbers of votes to get elected under De Hondt. On the basis of the 2004 vote these were the rough percentages a party would need to get a seat in the different electoral regions of the UK.

East Midlands 12.9%
Eastern 8.4%
London 7.7%
North East 12.2%
North West 6.8%
South East 7.0%
South West 9.2%
West Midlands 8.8%
Yorkshire & the Humber 8.8%
Scotland 8.8%
Wales 10.5%

It's possible of course that more than this will be needed - but not much. Griffin would be sure to be elected on 9% in North West

Turnout will be lower this time than it was in 2004 as the Euros will coincide with far fewer local elections (local democracy in England is crazily complex). This will help the BNP - as will the likely collapse of the UKIP vote (they did well last time on the back of an orange coloured lunatic called Killroy silk).

The following is the breakdown of the BNP vote in 2004, with the UKIP vote in brackets.

East Midlands 6.5% (26.1%)
Eastern - 4.3% (19.6%)
London - 4% (12.3%)
North East - 6.4% (12.2%)
North West - 6.4% (12.2%)
South East - 2.9% (19.5%)
South West - 3% (22.6%)
West Midlands - 7.5% (17.5%)
Yorkshire & the Humber - 8% (14.5%)
Scotland – 1.7% (6.7%)
Wales - 3% (10.5%)

Add to all this the fact that there's a stinker of a recession on & that Labour will be pi*sing working class votes all over the place & things look rather good for the BNP - they could get four or more for that matter. Perhaps they'll end up with more representation in Europe than any of the Irish parties.

Disturbing times.

Were these bye election results before or after the leaking of BNP Membership to the World and its Mother? Not necessarily saying of course that this would seriously affect them, but just curious that's all