Military Report: Mexico, Pakistan at Risk of 'Rapid and Sudden Collapse'

[Thac0man]

The Taliban operate in Swat and through brutal violance, fear and intimidation have much negitive influence there, but they do not control Swat.

The Pakistan armies advance into tribal areas is slow (very slow), but at no point have they suffered a mojor territorial setback. So they will eventually control all of Pakistan (which they have never done before).

The Pakistan governments stated goal is to extend democracy to all corners of Pakistan and that is something many in the Tribal regions want to see, because the alternative has been to surrender their independance to foreign bankrolled Taliban at the point of a gun.

[Asi-Irish]

The Taliban operate in Swat and through brutal violance, fear and intimidation have much negitive influence there, but they do not control Swat.

You can add to the info below the fact that in December, raids involving upwards of 200 militants, were launched against NATO depots in Peshawar. Where's the army? Where's the state control?

In the Swat district of the North West Frontier Province, the Taliban militants led by Maulana Fazlullah have established near-total control.

According to a report in the Urdu-language newspaper Roznama Jasarat, Taliban commander Maulana Fazlullah has established control over 80 percent of the Swat district, running his own government with its own Shari'a courts, FM radio stations, policing militias, and so on. Roznama Jasarat added: "There is no effective [Pakistani] state in Swat. No damage was done to Fazlullah group [of the Taliban] and its leadership during the military operation."

In the Swat district, the Taliban have ordered total ban on female education from January 15, 2009; women have been banned from visiting government offices that issue ID cards to Pakistani citizens; local politicians are running for cover from the Taliban militants; and policemen have been placing ads in local newspapers, announcing that they have quit their government jobs. During the past year, over 700 policemen have resigned their jobs in this manner.

The Taliban have stepped up the killing of anybody who could potentially oppose them. The Urdu-language newspaper Roznama Mashriq reported on January 6. 2009, that during just one week, 39 bodies were recovered in the Swat district of people killed by the Taliban on different charges, among them the allegations of spying for the U.S.

In fact, the entire tribal region, situated along the border with Afghanistan, is slipping away from the Pakistani control. On January 11, a group of 600 Taliban militants attacked three security checkposts in the tribal district of Mohmand Agency. At least 40 militants and nine Pakistani security personnel were killed during the ensuing fighting.
MEMRI: Inquiry and Analysis - No. 491

[Asi-Irish]

In fact, I am told by reliable sources, that the military appears to be doing virtually nothing to bring the situation under control. I know someone with family there, and he said that the military in the area don't even leave their barracks.

The ANP leader has said the same thing, attacks on politicians are carried out with impunity. There is no state control in Swat.

The police who remain there do nothing. Their checkposts are set up next to Taliban check posts.

[Thac0man]

Your source for all your claims there is MEMRI. Now in conclusion the author states the following:

Thus, these militant organizations find themselves away from the international attention; they are on an offensive to entrench their positions, to further their ideological mission and establish Islamic Shari'a in the Pakistan-Afghanistan border region and beyond.

He seems to be confusing the word entrench with a idiological effort as opposed to a military one. The JuD for instance and a good few other Islamic organistations are not allied to the Palkistani Taliban movement and many do not have militant wings. I hate to be the one to break the news to you Asi, but all Muslims or even Islamists cannot be lumped in together, as the author Tufail Ahmad has done to push a hazy point home.

An offensive of 200 Taliban in Swat is a huge effort by the Taliban, but as an insurgent group the only territory they hold in Swat is what they can get without the government noticing or hold until the government decides to retake it.

I do not dispute the Taliban control swathes of the frontier territory in Pakistan. What I said is the Pakistani armies advance is a slow one but they have yet to suffer a major territorial loss to the Taliban. Criticism of the Pakistani armies slow advance and the resultant linger of foreign Taliban in tribal areas is misplaced and inspired by US rhetoric designed to pressure the Islamabad government. The frontier teritory is land the Pakistan government has never fully controlled, but that change.

The Taliban are not winning the battle for the hearts and minds of the Pakistani people. And if the people lose faith in their government they will turn to the opposition parties, not the Taliban.

The extreme Islamists in Pakistan may gain some political ground with great effort, but they will never regain the status or influance they enjoyed under Zia or even Benazir Bhutto. The amount of differant Islamist movements in Pakistan and the fractious nature of these movements points to that. The Author of the MEMRI article and indeed a great many other observers tend not to examine the poltical sub-current of struggle between radical Islamist groups in Pakistan - something the government of Pakistan is deft at manipulating to its own advantage. Their success is illustrtated by the fact that no Islamist groups holds the balance of power in Pakistani politics no matter which way the major parties align.

I would also inject a note of caution into the origin of claims that the Pakistan government indeed has serious trouble. It suits Zadari to avoid supressing these rumours, as the existance of such a preception means he can get more financial and military aid from the US and other allies. This is yet another political dimension. When African countires feel the fiscal pinch they cry "famine!" and the world runs to their aid without question. It seems Muslim countries are willing to cry "extremism!" now in the expectation that the West will bail out their economies - as recently attempted by Zadari who unveiledthe need for billions of US dollars to be injected into the Pakistani economy to help "fight extremism through economic development".

[Xipe Totec]

re: mexico: Global Guerrillas: MEXICO'S BAZAAR OF VIOLENCE

That mexico is rife with poverty is nothing new, no matter what the forecast for it economic outlook. But if Mexico has not collapsed by now then I do not think its going too.

o ok gr8 tnx

[Thac0man]

Some link there Xipe. Revolution for the Blackberry/Starbucks generation.

I had wondered how general criminality could be rebranded and made into something political so wind bags could attach weight to it, and thus also their own 'left field' opinions. But by gum the author has done it with the phrase "open source revolution"; how very cafe latte.

[Asi-Irish]

Thc0man. I never said they were winning hearts and minds.. or that they have popular support here. There was a protest against their actions in Swat here in Islamabad yesterday, but it was poorly attended. People are afraid to protest against them.

They don't need to win hearts and minds to take over.

I myself have been in close proximity to a number of bomb blasts here. The closest was in Lahore at a musical performance.

Lahore was hit again last week, right next to the hotel where I usually stay.

Slowly but surely things are deteriorating here in Pakistan.

That said, there have been no major bombs in the key cities (excluding Peshawar and Quetta) since around October.

The ingredients are here for a collapse... a deteriorating economy, independence movements in Sindh and Balochistan, not to mention NWFP and the Tribal Areas.

Punjab is controlled by the PML-N, Sindh by the PPP, NWFP by the ANP (to an extent.. since the Taliban control some parts) and Balochistan is chaos.

However, you're right when you say that the situation on the ground is not as it is portrayed in the media. Most of the time things are normal... nothing happens for weeks, or even months outside the restive provinces.

Who knows? Maybe Pakistan will pull through.

But you know I am a "conspiracy theorist" and I believe that the Indian IB is doing its part to tear the country apart.

Someone is funding the militants and providing them with weapons and intelligence. The Yanks had a number of clear opportunities to hit Flazullah and they didn't. Instead they go after the tribals who want talks.

[Eorna]

That mexico is rife with poverty is nothing new, no matter what the forecast for it economic outlook. But if Mexico has not collapsed by now then I do not think its going too.

No, far from it. The above is the equivalent of saying in 2007, looks house prices have been going up for years, if they haven't fallen by now they never will.

The Mexican economy is slowly but surely losing its cash cow, cantarell. There are no significant replacements coming online. Where is the money to support and care for these poor. Mexico has always had poor, it always will, but in the next 5-10 years will it be able to feed them, maintain its infrastructure, stop its police from becoming more corrupt. Look at what happened in Oxacca, where people rioted for a week, over corruption.

Many in the Europe, question the financial stability and futures of Ireland, Spain and Greece. They question Greece's ability to maintain law and order. There is a raft of countries from Hungary all the way over to China, who are in danger of financial implosion. Mexico and Pakistan, have always been in trouble, why should they turn around and buck the trend now.