The fall and fall of the US and the EU, a not so cheerful view of the future.

[CookieMonster]

2025: the end of US dominance?

While some may be happy about such an idea, I think it such feelings may be ill advised.

Interesting story from last Friday's Guardian, begins...

The United States' leading intelligence organisation has warned that the world is entering an increasingly unstable and unpredictable period in which the advance of western-style democracy is no longer assured, and some states are in danger of being "taken over and run by criminal networks".

The global trends review, produced by the National Intelligence Council (NIC) every four years, represents sobering reading in Barack Obama's intray as he prepares to take office in January. The country he inherits, the report warns, will no longer be able to "call the shots" alone, as its power over an increasingly multipolar world begins to wane.

However, the interesting (or more relevant) paragraph states something which I have long suspected and which the people of Ireland are now acutely aware of:

While emerging economies like China, India and Brazil are likely to grow in influence at America's expense, the same cannot be said of the European Union. The NIC appears relatively certain the EU will be "losing clout" by 2025. Internal bickering and a "democracy gap" separating Brussels from European voters will leave the EU "a hobbled giant", unable to translate its economic clout into global influence.

A worrying portent for sure, is now the time to act?

Story here: 2025: the end of US dominance | World news | The Guardian

The full NIC report available here (pdf): http://www.dni.gov/nic/PDF_2025/2025...nal_Report.pdf

[He3]

It would be indeed ironic if it took the US NIC to get them to listen, as they are very resistant to hearing what the citizens of the EU have to say on the democratic deficit.

[Catalpa]

Trouble is we just don't know what the World will be like then.

If there is an overall trend its that China and India will grow in strength relative to the EU and the USA.

IMO Demographics - Births, Deaths & Migration and the interaction both within States and Continents and between them is where those with an interest in future Geopolitical futures should focus their attention.

[HughinBandon]

And the demise of US and EU influence in the global economy is a bad thing? I think not. The philosophy of global exploitation, contrary to the insane ramblings of Mr Gordon Brown, are exactly what has landed us in the economic turmoil that we are currently experiencing.

What we are experiencing today is a carbon copy of the Wall Street crash of 1929 with one important difference. There is no territorial boundary to prevent the effects of the American economic lunacy impacting on every other financial market.

Global economy equals global depression.

There's something to be said for not putting all your eggs in one basket.

[CookieMonster]

It would be indeed ironic if it took the US NIC to get them to listen, as they are very resistant to hearing what the citizens of the EU have to say on the democratic deficit.

It may sadly end up being a case of everybody else seeing it coming but them.

But of course the Americans would say that, wouldn't they. Funny, we're being told that the US want a weak EU. I have always believed that to be utter nonsense. If the US were to want any ally as their power and influence diminishes would it not be the ones with whom they have so much in common, ie us?

Trouble is we just don't know what the World will be like then.

True, but I think their prediction looks credible.

If there is an overall trend its that China and India will grow in strength relative to the EU and the USA.

We're starting to see that already. That said I haven't read the full report yet and I don't know if the issue of energy is factored in (I would assume it is) which would be a major factor in how fast India and China can continue to develop.

IMO Demographics - Births, Deaths & Migration and the interaction both within States and Continents and between them is where those with an interest in future Geopolitical futures should focus their attention.

You don't have any figures on this yourself?

[cHeal]

Was the US possibly the most benelovent world power the world has ever seen? Or did it just happen to preside over a time when it was easy to be benelovent? Time will tell, but in reality I don't expect the reigns of power to ever fall too far from the grip of the western powers, even now the most likely powers to take the throne are ones which have largely bought into the Western ideologies. China is going to be a force to be reckoned with but I don't expect India to really sustain any serious global power, economic or otherwise.

While I won't lament the fall of the US it is sad to once again see the poorest nations in the world being left with such a small slice of the pie, after all the good times we have enjoyed in the west, after all the charity and good will espoused by our leaders there are still so many people dying for lack of the most basic human needs, and the best we can do is to herd them into camps with springlings of aid.

[CookieMonster]

I'd say some of the less of power (and indeed respect) for the US is their own doing. Not the people of course, but the governments. Perhaps Obama can act against that and give back some world standing, he's suggesting to retreating from Iraq (not sure how wise that is) and sorting out Afghanistan quickly (which is wise) and has eyes on Iran too, which could cause problems. I'm not sure, military wise how that impact will effect their world standing, but can the afford to remain a superpower?

Europe is a different matter. After the TCE and Lisbon the growing "democracy gap" be it real or perceived (for the sake of this discussion I don't think that matters) is very evident and does need to be addressed. How effective can the EU become if it doesn't have the support of it's people, which it quite clearly doesn't.

[He3]

Without popular support it can be effective, to a point, but it cannot be legitimate.

[cHeal]

I'd say some of the less of power (and indeed respect) for the US is their own doing. Not the people of course, but the governments. Perhaps Obama can act against that and give back some world standing, he's suggesting to retreating from Iraq (not sure how wise that is) and sorting out Afghanistan quickly (which is wise) and has eyes on Iran too, which could cause problems. I'm not sure, military wise how that impact will effect their world standing, but can the afford to remain a superpower?

Europe is a different matter. After the TCE and Lisbon the growing "democracy gap" be it real or perceived (for the sake of this discussion I don't think that matters) is very evident and does need to be addressed. How effective can the EU become if it doesn't have the support of it's people, which it quite clearly doesn't.

I am sceptical as to what Obama can actually do. Really. His hands are tied on the Israeli situation and leaving Iraq is not an option I don't think. As for attacking Iran, it would be an incredible folly considering they simply are not a threat and any attack on Iran would probably cause repercussions in Iraq, certainly I don't believe that Iran would attack the US or Israel, it would attack Iraq (and probably kuwait), it would cut off the fuel supply, increase it's support for an insurgency and then the US would face the real chance of defeat in Iraq

As for Europe, well I used to be extremely pro-Europe, I couldn't wait for the EU to get big guns like the US and be able start wars for fun but having learnt what I have in the passing years I don't think I could possibly support any militarisation on the EU. Now I think the whole thing should nearly be abolished, keep the trading block, make it strong and lead the way in renewable, sustainable energy and thus insolate us from outside geopolitical pressures. Presuming China doesn't just invade all it's neighbours I'm not particularly worried.

[jfk2008]

Was the US possibly the most benelovent world power the world has ever seen?

That's sarcasm right?

Because the victims of US benevolence in Guetamala, Costa Rica, Nicaragua, El Salvador, Chile, Cuba, Haiti, Indonesia, Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos, Iran, Iraq, Afghanistan and all the other countries where the US has at one time or another subverted democracy, supported brutal dictators and armed groups (who've collectively killed millions of their own people) or dropped tons of bombs on civilians might have a different view of the US.