Brown faces yet another Scottish by-election disaster

[mccafferty cat]

BBC News

Just when you thought couldn't possibly get any worse....yet another sitting Labour MP has died, this time in a constituency which is (literally, this time) next door to Gordon Brown's.

The Labour majority is 10,500 - that's 2,500 less than the majority which was overturned in Glasgow East.

There are three possible outcomes, all of them equally hilarious!

1) Labour lose the seat, in which case Brown would almost certainly resign of his own accord
2) Labour majority is slashed, intensifying the internal Labour warfare
3) Labour win it comfortably, allowing Brown to claim resurgence, taking some of the wind from Milliband's sails, and putting a huge smile on the face of David Cameron

[Squire Allworthy]

Labour will not win this comfortably if they do manage to hold it will be with a massive reduction in majority. It does not matter if Brown or Milliband lead the party, because come the next election they are out. If I were Milliband I would not be so keen just yet.

[Limerick Lad]

BBC News

Just when you thought couldn't possibly get any worse....yet another sitting Labour MP has died, this time in a constituency which is (literally, this time) next door to Gordon Brown's.

The Labour majority is 10,500 - that's 2,500 less than the majority which was overturned in Glasgow East.

There are three possible outcomes, all of them equally hilarious!

1) Labour lose the seat, in which case Brown would almost certainly resign of his own accord
2) Labour majority is slashed, intensifying the internal Labour warfare
3) Labour win it comfortably, allowing Brown to claim resurgence, taking some of the wind from Milliband's sails, and putting a huge smile on the face of David Cameron

Of all the scenarios you outlined the one thing that will never happen is that Brown would resign of his own accord, he's waited too long to attain his goal of being British PM to give it up so easily. The only circumstance that would lead to Brown resigning would be defeat in a General Election, he'll cling on to power in the hope that Cameron and the Conservative Party shoot themselves in the foot (a not unlikely circumstance) leading to Labour under his leadership pulling victory from the jaws of defeat as John Major did for the Conservatives in 1992.

[mccafferty cat]

Of all the scenarios you outlined the one thing that will never happen is that Brown would resign of his own accord, he's waited too long to attain his goal of being British PM to give it up so easily

As much as I'd love to agree, realistically a loss would mean he would be dead meat. I would imagine that in these circumstances he would see the writing on the wall, and would not want to be dragged out of office as Mrs. Thatcher was

[kerrynorth]

BBC News

Just when you thought couldn't possibly get any worse....yet another sitting Labour MP has died, this time in a constituency which is (literally, this time) next door to Gordon Brown's.

The Labour majority is 10,500 - that's 2,500 less than the majority which was overturned in Glasgow East.

There are three possible outcomes, all of them equally hilarious!

1) Labour lose the seat, in which case Brown would almost certainly resign of his own accord
2) Labour majority is slashed, intensifying the internal Labour warfare
3) Labour win it comfortably, allowing Brown to claim resurgence, taking some of the wind from Milliband's sails, and putting a huge smile on the face of David Cameron

The SNP are the main challengers again.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glenrothes ... nstituency)

[Limerick Lad]

[quote=mccafferty cat]

Of all the scenarios you outlined the one thing that will never happen is that Brown would resign of his own accord, he's waited too long to attain his goal of being British PM to give it up so easily

As much as I'd love to agree, realistically a loss would mean he would be dead meat. I would imagine that in these circumstances he would see the writing on the wall, and would not want to be dragged out of office as Mrs. Thatcher was[/quote:ghzs71wd]

Like most politicians Gordon Brown isn't that good at reading the writing on the wall and I think would have to dragged out of office like Mrs. Thatcher, he personally or politically would have little to lose by remaining in office.
The Labour Party probably have to face up to the fact that it's more than likely they will be defeated in the next General Election and ditching Brown before the Election would have little or no effect with regaining support from the British electorate. Selecting a new leader would only lead to that person having to resign immediately post election, leaving the Labour Party rudderless as the Conservative Party were after it's humiliating 1997 election defeat.

[Squire Allworthy]

From Times online

[NeilW]

Labour will almost certainly lose (a Glasgow East swing, which may be a bit too much to hope for, would give an SNP majority of 5,000+). But it wont be a disaster. And Brown wont resign.

[Grumpy Fogey]

A YouGov poll of current voting intentions in Scotland for both the Westminster and Scottish parliaments was published yesterday. The results are as follows:

Westminster:
SNP 36
Lab 29
Con 18
Lib Dem 13
Other 5

Holyrood:
SNP 44
Labour 25
Lib Dem 14
Con 13
Other 4

See:
http://www.yougov.com/uk/archives/pdf/SNP_website.pdf

[Liberal333]

Which would produce nearly 40 SNP MPs on a uniform swing.....