The U.S. neoconservative agenda to Sacrifice the Fifth Fleet

[Champa]

From The Canadian:

The Bush administration has covered up and ignored dissenting Pentagon war games analysis that suggests an attack on Iran's nuclear or military facilities will lead directly to the annihilation of the Navy's Fifth Fleet now stationed in the Persian Gulf. Lt. General Paul Van Riper led a hypothetical Persian Gulf state in the 2002 Millennium Challenge war games that resulted in the destruction of the Fifth Fleet. His experience and conclusions regarding the vulnerability of the Fifth Fleet to an asymmetrical military conflict and the implications for a war against Iran have been ignored.

Full article here:
http://www.agoracosmopolitan.com/hom.../08/01932.html

[Catalpa]

From The Canadian:

The Bush administration has covered up and ignored dissenting Pentagon war games analysis that suggests an attack on Iran's nuclear or military facilities will lead directly to the annihilation of the Navy's Fifth Fleet now stationed in the Persian Gulf. Lt. General Paul Van Riper led a hypothetical Persian Gulf state in the 2002 Millennium Challenge war games that resulted in the destruction of the Fifth Fleet. His experience and conclusions regarding the vulnerability of the Fifth Fleet to an asymmetrical military conflict and the implications for a war against Iran have been ignored.

Full article here:
http://www.agoracosmopolitan.com/hom.../08/01932.html

This is old news. The good General did indeed use unconventional tactics to 'win' his game and did a service in exposing critical weaknesses in the ability of the 5th Fleet to fend off Iranian missile boats and indeed suicide manned ones too.

If the US Navy took those lessons on board then the risk is now much less.

Having said that though I don't think any US Military planner would believe a cost free victory at sea is possible either. Almost certainly the US navy would take a few hits in any upcoming conflict.

TBH if Bush doesn't give the go ahead between February/May next year then it isn't going to happen on his Watch.

[youngdan]

Of course the carriers are just bait because there is no defense against a sunburn missile. But why take a chance, let's put them into the Gulf with only a narrow escape gaunlet.

[soubresauts]

We already had a thread on this the other day; it's here.

[Champa]

Of course the carriers are just bait because there is no defense against a sunburn missile. But why take a chance, let's put them into the Gulf with only a narrow escape gaunlet.

If the US attacks Iran in any way shape or form, Iran will close off the straits of Hormuz and commence the destruction of the fifth fleet. Certain people hope this scenario plays out as the destruction of the fifth fleet would become an excuse for a ground invasion and total war in the Middle East.
Imagine the frenzy the media would whip up in the US if this scenario played out.

[Catalpa]

Of course the carriers are just bait because there is no defense against a sunburn missile. But why take a chance, let's put them into the Gulf with only a narrow escape gaunlet.

If the US attacks Iran in any way shape or form, Iran will close off the straits of Hormuz and commence the destruction of the fifth fleet. Certain people hope this scenario plays out as the destruction of the fifth fleet would become an excuse for a ground invasion and total war in the Middle East.
Imagine the frenzy the media would whip up in the US if this scenario played out.

Er do you not think the US Navy doesn't already know this?

The Iranians will be attacked in strength out of the blue as the SOH are being secured.

Also while the Gulf might look small on the map its still a fairly big stretch of water - I don't think the Iranians will be able to put a LOS on any Carrier if the s8it starts to fly...

[youngdan]

For a good understanding of general staff intelligence I recommend a study of the innovative tactics of General Haig on the Western Front. This should only take a few moments. As US general Smedley Butler says in his famous book, "I never once had an independent thought until after I retired"

[beardyboy]

Every general fights the previous war

[Champa]

Of course the carriers are just bait because there is no defense against a sunburn missile. But why take a chance, let's put them into the Gulf with only a narrow escape gaunlet.

If the US attacks Iran in any way shape or form, Iran will close off the straits of Hormuz and commence the destruction of the fifth fleet. Certain people hope this scenario plays out as the destruction of the fifth fleet would become an excuse for a ground invasion and total war in the Middle East.
Imagine the frenzy the media would whip up in the US if this scenario played out.

Er do you not think the US Navy doesn't already know this?

The Iranians will be attacked in strength out of the blue as the SOH are being secured.

Also while the Gulf might look small on the map its still a fairly big stretch of water - I don't think the Iranians will be able to put a LOS on any Carrier if the s8it starts to fly...

Iran have been preparing for war for the last 10-15 years, they have been on alert since 2002. No attack on Iran will be "out of the blue".
Iranian anti shipping positions are deeply embedded in the gulf coast and US carriers have no defence against Sunburn or Yakhonts missiles. If the fifth fleet are in the gulf at the time of any attack, Iran will shoot them like rats in a barrel. Wouldn't the destruction of the fifth fleet be a great excuse to launch a ground invasion?. Wouldn't it be a great excuse to bring back the draft?.

[youngdan]

It would be a great excuse for a precipitous drop in the value of the dollar. As this has begun to happen the reason for the war is being removed.