Next UK General Election to be in 2009

[Richie Nixon]

Gordon Brown is the Brian Cowan of British politics

Is that a compliment or an insult?

Neither really. Its more of an assessment. Cowan is one of the luckiest men in Irish politics. His ministerial jobs have been after all the major progress was made, and as a result he didnt have to much to look successful.

Brown has also been handed a sweet job which was the product of the work by tony blair.

[odie1kanobe]

GB played the tories and drew the sting.

Nobody wanted an election aside from bored media hacks.

[Badboy]

Are you trying to tell me that this was a sucessful week for Gordon Brown. Last week he was 11 points up in the opinion polls, he is now trailing by 4 in the marginal constituencies (most of which Labour hold)

John Major's 1992-97 election was probably the most economically sucessful of the Tory administrations (well with Ken Clarke in 11), yet the Tories have remained unelectable because of a percieved lack of economic competence.

Gordon Brown is currently perceived to be indecisive, opportunistic and cowardly. If he fails to shake off that reputation, he is toast.

[chris_nelson]

Spring 2009 is a possibility, but the problem for Brown is that this would probably put the British general election at the same time, if not the same day, as the European Parliament elections, which would give the Conservatives a legitimate excuse to bang on about Europe - something which is usually to their benefit.

I'd've thought more likely is September 2009 or Spring 2010.

[freedomlover]

Well Gordon has checked the opinion polls and decided to put plans for a snap election on hold.

What do people think the consequences are for Britain and Ireland?

Cameron is an unknown when it comes to Ireland, even though the background might be considered unpromising.

FF have a little longer to organise now.

Certainly to me as someone who lived in the Uk for a while, it looks like this is the first time that New Labour have been on the backfoot since the currenct crisis in the mid nineties.

The first major consequence of Brown's decision: BBC saying that Ming Campbell is to resign as Lib Dem leader in the next hour. Not good news for Conservatives. Most of the Conservative surge in the polls has come from a fall in the Lib Dems share, down to 11% at weekend compared with 22% in 2005 election. Partly due to Ming Campbell's uninspiring leadership. He's both old and Scottish, not at all to the taste of the get-up-and-go middle class in middle England. If the Lib Dems choose a young vigorous leader from middle England, they could recover and take votes from the Conservatives.

[hiding behind a poster]

He could leave it till 2010 either - legally the Parliament can run for 5 yrs and the last election was 2005.

True - but calling an election in the UK is very different. As its much more obviously a two-horse race, the election largely is fought on national issues - meaning that the closer a sitting PM goes to the wire before calling an election, the more he's at the mercy of events outside his control. If a UK government goes the full five years, it means they're expecting to lose, and hoping something turns up to change that.