How long will the United Kingdom last as a political entity

[Cloigeann]

Any guesses? and why

[freedomlover]

Any guesses? and why

I think it will last a very long time. Certainly longer than any poster on here. That doesn't mean I want it to last, just that I think it will. The Scots will never have the bottle to pull out of it. It will be like Quebec. They may elect a pro-independence government from time to time and they may say in opinion polls that they'd like independence (although the last one put that number at under 40 per cent). But, just like Quebec, if independence is actually being decided on in a referendum, sufficient numbers of those who favoured it in meaningless opinion polls will chicken out from voting for it when it comes to a real poll. Of course, I don't exclude N. Ireland leaving it, that's much more likely than Scotland leaving it. But, N. Ireland leaving wouldn't be the end of the U. Kingdom - it could only be said to have ended when Scotland leaves as well.

[Cloigeann]

But, just like Quebec, if independence is actually being decided on in a referendum, sufficient numbers of those who favoured it in meaningless opinion polls will chicken out from voting for it when it comes to a real poll.

The referendum took place in Quebec on October 30, 1995, and the motion to decide whether Quebec should secede from Canada was defeated by an extremely small margin: 50.58% "No" to 49.42% "Yes".

[forest]

I believe scotland will leave long before NI

[Insider2007]

It will last at least 50 years. It will probably evolve from a unitary state with devolved government in the 'constituent countries' to a form of federalism. It could move to confederalism. But the odds are that Scotland will maintain some form of membership of the UK, while the numbers on Northern Ireland make a majority for leaving the UK unlikely for decades at best. So while the UK will be changed some form of UK, most likely in federal or confederal form, is likely to continue in our lifetimes.

[kevin04scotland]

Any guesses? and why

I think it will last a very long time. Certainly longer than any poster on here. That doesn't mean I want it to last, just that I think it will. The Scots will never have the bottle to pull out of it. It will be like Quebec. They may elect a pro-independence government from time to time and they may say in opinion polls that they'd like independence (although the last one put that number at under 40 per cent). But, just like Quebec, if independence is actually being decided on in a referendum, sufficient numbers of those who favoured it in meaningless opinion polls will chicken out from voting for it when it comes to a real poll. Of course, I don't exclude N. Ireland leaving it, that's much more likely than Scotland leaving it. But, N. Ireland leaving wouldn't be the end of the U. Kingdom - it could only be said to have ended when Scotland leaves as well.

I also know people who refuse to vote in Westminsiter/Holyrood elections but all have said they'll vote when we get the "real" vote as one of them calls it, there are more people in Scotland who are like this as well, opinion polls have alot to do with wording as well e.g if it's a negative question "do you believe scotland should break up/split/tear away from the UK" it'll mostly result in a less %for Independence but if it's a more positive "nationhood/independent country/soveirgn state" it'll be quite positive.

A ref vote in Sco would be so so tight and almost as tight as Montenegro I feel but I like to think also that alot of the younger generation are more interested in an Independent Scotland and the old North Brits I think are slowly slowly moving on but of course there are North Brits who are young too but I think it's so close also many people who don't usually vote latest turn out in past few elections have been poor, 49% etc and I think a ref would have everyone out and many people who dote vote for any party but back to Independence.

I'm a SNP supporter but I'm also a republican although the SNP has a lot of republican supporters in it's rank - the official policy at the moment is The Queen will still be head of state in an Independent Scotland but I know that the republicans will challenge this and I'll back a vote for a republic but my main goal is to actually get Independence first and then we can worry getting rid of the Queen and co.

As for the UK breakup, I'm not sure as of yet. I'd love for us to be the ones that break it up but we'll need to wait at least until 2011 for the Holyrood vote - we don't have enough MSPs in power to pass a referendum but they are making steady progress and maybe newspaper such as Sunday Herald, The Courier have been very good as well and recent opinion polls have been very positive.

[Keith-M]

For the forseeable future. There is more that unites the people than divides them.

[Binx]

On the northern ireland aspect of it. Does London want rid of N.I.?, Whats stopping them just saying, "Ah, feck yis" and going home? (please forgive my
ignorance to the answer of this question but i'd really like to know.)

[factual]

On the northern ireland aspect of it. Does London want rid of N.I.?, Whats stopping them just saying, "Ah, feck yis" and going home? (please forgive my
ignorance to the answer of this question but i'd really like to know.)

I think London does not want rid while a majority in the six counties want to remain with them.

[corkman2007]

I reckon kevin04scotland is about right. A large majority of Scots support giving greater powers to the Scottish Parliament. At some point those powers will be conceded by the Westminster Parliament. Sooner or later, people will want even more powers ceded to Scotland until finally indepedence becomes the next logical step. The same will happen with Wales and, probably, Northern Ireland.

Of course, the UK might end up like Belgium.

Edit: the whole process might take about 50 years.