Syria and the future.

[Kommunist]

Last year we have witnessed the fall of the regime in Libya. This year we see a civil war erupting in Syria, the UN are calling for intervention. But will an intervention create a safer and better environment for the people, or put the country into a repressive religious theocracy? There are many arguments to this case, I personally very much agree with this observation by Peter Beaumont writing from The Observer.

One year on: chaotic Libya reveals the perils of humanitarian intervention | Peter Beaumont | Comment is free | The Observer

I personally believe that the way events are unfolding, a UN led military intervention will increase the casualty rate, it will force the remaining government forces into a hole, meaning they will fight far more viciously and employ cheaper and far more brutal tactics. Not only that, but with the removal of President Assad it would guarantee that Islam would engulf the state along with it's more unjust laws. I argue against military intervention and for conciliation, arbitration and a ceasefire delegated by nations that are a bit more neutral to the entire conflict than GB, Russia, US, China.

I would also like to say that those dying now, are a potential number less than those which might die in the future and in the long term. If Syria follows the same path as contemporary Libya.

Please share your thoughts.

[toxic avenger]

Assad is doomed. He has thrown everything at the rebels and needed to knock them out. He has failed. It's now merely a matter of time, perhaps a fair bit of time. It's possible that Syria will end up in a post-Assad abyss of sectarian and ethnic strife or a militia ruled abyss, but it is Assad who has created this situation - he could have come up with a creative solution or a means of placating his opponents at the start. Instead he went with his father's tactics - mass murder and terror. He will now pay the price.

UN intervention, if anything, might be the last hope he has - a means of preserving some semblance of status quo.

[Telemachus]

Exactly 1 year ago I had similar thoughts on Egypt.

Niall Ferguson on Obama and Egypt

[Andy4571]

Last year we have witnessed the fall of the regime in Libya. This year we see a civil war erupting in Syria, the UN are calling for intervention. But will an intervention create a safer and better environment for the people, or put the country into a repressive religious theocracy? There are many arguments to this case, I personally very much agree with this observation by Peter Beaumont writing from The Observer.

One year on: chaotic Libya reveals the perils of humanitarian intervention | Peter Beaumont | Comment is free | The Observer

I personally believe that the way events are unfolding, a UN led military intervention will increase the casualty rate, it will force the remaining government forces into a hole, meaning they will fight far more viciously and employ cheaper and far more brutal tactics. Not only that, but with the removal of President Assad it would guarantee that Islam would engulf the state along with it's more unjust laws. I argue against military intervention and for conciliation, arbitration and a ceasefire delegated by nations that are a bit more neutral to the entire conflict than GB, Russia, US, China.

I would also like to say that those dying now, are a potential number less than those which might die in the future and in the long term. If Syria follows the same path as contemporary Libya.

Please share your thoughts.

Very few if any countries are advocating military intervention in Syria. What they want is Assad to step down and a caretaker government ( made of mainly of current elected goverment members, but which has no real power at present, as unelected President holds the power, and Ba'ath Party ) try to organise free and fair elections so the government represents the people. That may prevent a power vacuum like we have seen in Libya etc..

Current path is only leading to a power vacuum instead if regime falls, or a massacre if they try to up the stakes.

[Aristodemus]

Assad is going nowhere thanks to the Chinese and Russians.

[Garza]

Assad is going nowhere soon thanks to the Chinese and Russians.

There. Fixed. Assad will go or will be hung on a pole eventually.

This is Russia's last gasp attempt to save their global power status. They are beginning to realise they are not a global power anymore and they don't like it.

[Andy4571]

There. Fixed. Assad will go or will be hung on a pole eventually.

This is Russia's last gasp attempt to save their global power status. They are beginning to realise they are not a global power anymore and they don't like it.

Will need to wait till after March 4th in Russia. Putin does not want to appear weak towards West leading up to these elections, but after them, he may realise damage to Russia's international image already done and have to remove support for Syrian regime.

[ManOfReason]

So the OP is advocating: "Live under tyranny rather than risk death." Komminust don't you think that seems like a long why from the ideas of your idol Karl Marx?

P.S. I hope Assad meets the same faith as Gaddafi. He, like all blood soaked tyrants, should be lynched by his own people for the crimes he has committed against them.

[Kommunist]

So the OP is advocating: "Live under tyranny rather than risk death." Komminust don't you think that seems like a long why from the ideas of your idol Karl Marx?

P.S. I hope Assad meets the same faith as Gaddafi. He, like all blood soaked tyrants, should be lynched by his own people for the crimes he has committed against them.

First part, irrelevant to the entire thread. What my ideology is, is of no concern to you. Where did I state I was advocating that which you have quoted? Perhaps I am advocating and supporting a different solution rather than military intervention? No? Didn't cross your mind? Who said my idol was Karl Marx? Marxism is quiet hard to apply to modern life, I'm sure we can debate this in a philosophical thread.

So how many casualties are you willing to offer for them to get Assad. Two thousand, three thousand, four thousand. End justifies the means?

[Aristodemus]

Will need to wait till after March 4th in Russia. Putin does not want to appear weak towards West leading up to these elections, but after them, he may realise damage to Russia's international image already done and have to remove support for Syrian regime.

What image is that then? The one were everyone thinks the country is in the control of gangsters who brook no criticism, that is barely democratic and crushes dissent at every given opportunity?