Syria and the future.

[Kommunist]

What image is that then? The one were everyone thinks the country is in the control of gangsters who brook no criticism, that is barely democratic and crushes dissent at every given opportunity?

If I've understood and interpreted Russian foreign policy correctly, it's isolationist détente pro-co-operation. However, Putin very much reminds me of a Cold War warrior as they were called, and it wouldn't surprise me if his policy is just that. But I'm not one to judge, the corruption of the government is another topic altogether.

[Catalpa]

Its just not possible to say how this will pan out

Assad has managed to retain the support of the bulk of the Armed Forces and a fair chunk of the population in Damascus and some other cities

He may be able to crush this but he will be a pariah to the West for good

Outside military intervention is possible but not immediate

I would say the next stage will be military training and arms to the rebels...

[SAT]

This is Russia's last gasp attempt to save their global power status. They are beginning to realise they are not a global power anymore and they don't like it.

Do you think so?? I'd argue the opposite. After the fall of communism Russia reinvented itself, and is now on the way up again. The US, meanwhile, is living on borrowed money, and consequently borrowed time. It's current foreign policy program is simply economically unsustainable. Sometime within the next decade the US is going to crash, and like Russia, they will have to sit on the sidelines of the global power struggle for a couple of decades, whilst they rebuild their political and economic structures.

[Garza]

Do you think so?? I'd argue the opposite. After the fall of communism Russia reinvented itself, and is now on the way up again. The US, meanwhile, is living on borrowed money, and consequently borrowed time. It's current foreign policy program is simply economically unsustainable. Sometime within the next decade the US is going to crash, and like Russia, they will have to sit on the sidelines of the global power struggle for a couple of decades, whilst they rebuild their political and economic structures.

While I agree that the US and the West is in decline, it is foolish to think that Russia has gained power because of it, China will probably be the most powerful nation on earth soon. In fact Russia's influences have shrunk since the cold war. NATO has spread to its borders. That is why Russia is clinging to Syria so desperately, its last base in the Medd.

Russia and China are losing the Arab world.

[SAT]

While I agree that the US and the West is in decline, it is foolish to think that Russia has gained power because of it, China will probably be the most powerful nation on earth soon. In fact Russia's influences have shrunk since the cold war. NATO has spread to its borders. That is why Russia is clinging to Syria so desperately, its last base in the Medd.

Russia and China are losing the Arab world.

As I said Russia is now rebuilding. They have quadrupled their military spend over the last 4 years and plan to continue to increase their defence budget by 33% per annum, in real terms, for at least the next 10 years. They are spending ~double the amount China is spending on defence.

Putin Pledges More Defense Spending

MOSCOW—With less than two weeks until elections, Russian Prime Minister and presidential candidate Vladimir Putin pledged to spend 23 trillion rubles ($770 billion) on strengthening the country's army over the next 10 years, the Kremlin's biggest military spending spree since the Cold War.
snip
Mr. Putin also promised to beef up support for ground forces, pledging to build more than 400 modern intercontinental ballistic missiles for ground and sea forces, as well as dozens of submarines and more than 600 warplanes.

Putin Pledges More Defense Spending - WSJ.com

The US meanwhile just cannot sustain their current global presence (they have bases in more than 150 countries). If they don't downscale their military machine in an orderly fashion they could end up in the mess Russia did with whole fleets rusting at anchor.

The military of the United States is deployed in more than 150 countries around the world, with more than 205,118 of its 1,425,113[1] active-duty personnel serving outside the United States and its territories. Most of these overseas personnel are deployed in combat zones in the Middle east, as part of the War on Terror. Many of the remainder are located at installations activated during the Cold War, by which the US government sought to challenge the Soviet Union in the aftermath of World War II.

[Partizan]

So the OP is advocating: "Live under tyranny rather than risk death." Komminust don't you think that seems like a long why from the ideas of your idol Karl Marx?

P.S. I hope Assad meets the same faith as Gaddafi. He, like all blood soaked tyrants, should be lynched by his own people for the crimes he has committed against them.

You advocate Mob Rule then eh! A recognised Head of State, CC of the Armed Forces to be dragged into the street by a howling mob, raped by a bayonet, summarily executed and his body shown on display in a supermarket refridgerator to be viewed as some kind of freak show, to be gawked at by locals and the world media. Yeah lets dispense with that trivial matter of a fair trial in a court of law and string the lot of them up. Lets rip up the Geneva Convention while we are at it and just dole out Mad Max style justice (torture, rape, summary executions) what is happening right now to many Libyan Army POW's and civilians in the jails and camps of Tripoli and Benghazi. Save all the bother and expense of judges, lawyers, courts, clerks, administrators etc. Haebus Corpus, whats that?

A Man of Reason you are not. You are a contemptible human being.

[ffc]

So the OP is advocating: "Live under tyranny rather than risk death." Komminust don't you think that seems like a long why from the ideas of your idol Karl Marx?

P.S. I hope Assad meets the same faith as Gaddafi. He, like all blood soaked tyrants, should be lynched by his own people for the crimes he has committed against them.

Whats the difference between what is happening in Homs and what happened in Fallujah. A group of people violently oppose the authority trying to oppress them. They are surrounded, shelled, mutilated and killed. Both war crimes I would say. Yet no UN resolutions for one atrocity and no media outrage either, I wonder why?

[Elvis jaffacake]

As I said Russia is now rebuilding. They have quadrupled their military spend over the last 4 years and plan to continue to increase their defence budget by 33% per annum, in real terms, for at least the next 10 years. They are spending ~double the amount China is spending on defence. Putin Pledges More Defense Spending - WSJ.com

The US meanwhile just cannot sustain their current global presence (they have bases in more than 150 countries). If they don't downscale their military machine in an orderly fashion they could end up in the mess Russia did with whole fleets rusting at anchor.

And, corruption and graft eats huge amounts of the Russian defence budget.
The Russian military came perilously close to collapse in the 90's and they still have huge problems with kit, suicides all the way to to the Russian tradition of dedovshchina.

[iago1709]

After looking up the meaning of dedovshchina I am doubly glad that a) I wasn't born in Russia and b) I wasn't born somewhere that has compulsory military service.

[Partizan]

And, corruption and graft eats huge amounts of the Russian defence budget.
The Russian military came perilously close to collapse in the 90's and they still have huge problems with kit, suicides all the way to to the Russian tradition of dedovshchina.

Corruption cost Russia approximately US$318 billion in 2008-09, one third of its GDP.
Russia corruption costs $318 billion

The army as you rightly pointed out (along with its economy) did come close to collapse especially after the First Chechen War (1994-96) in which the Russian Army was forced to withdraw from Chechnya. However despite the problems inherent in the Russian armed forces (corruption, questionable morale, and dedovschina) it still remain a sizable and potent force. This was demonstrated during the war in Ossetia when the Russian Army destroyed the fully professional and NATO trained Georgian army in 48 hours. They are not to be messed with and underestimate them at your peril as Mikhail Saakashvili found out in August '08.

With regards to its economy (over dependence on export of raw materials), falling demographics and heightened ethno-religious tensions, especially in the Caucauses, they are another raft of serious problems facing Russia.