Falklands/Malvinas: Argentina slams UK over 'colonialist' comments

[sidney higginbottom]

Cameron would be well up for Falklands pt 2 it would give him a landslide in the next election.

The Falklands war made Thatcher, previous to it she was deeply unpopular.

its, imv, a bit more nuanced than that.

its not neccessarily that a 'good war' would win a landslide, more that a 'bad war' would lose a landslide. this 'Thatcher won a landslide on the back of the Falklands' needs to be tempered by the fact that the opposition party of the day, Labour, was at about its most idiotic/chaotic/disunited/badly-lead ever. they made FF look like the shining hope of the future.

Cameron is actually unlikely to want any conflict - simply because the defence cuts that his government has brought about make holding/re-inforcing the Islands more difficult, and re-taking them practically improbable. a short, very one-sided clash would see him rocket in the polls, but very quickly it would rebound on the question of 'so why did the Argentines think it was worth having a go in the first place?'.

a conservative government, particularly one that had undertaken massive defence cuts, that lost the Falklands would lose a vote of no confidence within a week or so, and it would be utterly unelectable within its own supporters, let alone anyone else, for at least a decade. Cameron, in those circumstances, would make Gordon Brown look like one of the longest-serving and most successful Prime Ministers of all time - and he knows it.

conflict would be a gamble - thats the nature of conflict - and Cameron can't afford to lose. so, personally i would expect to see a re-inforcement of the RAF Typhoon force on the Islands, and a big U-turn on the usefullness of the EU in the sphere of foreign policy.

[Elvis jaffacake]

Cameron would be well up for Falklands pt 2 it would give him a landslide in the next election.

The Falklands war made Thatcher, previous to it she was deeply unpopular.

Unless the Argentinian Marine corps has genetically modified it's men to fly or indeed swim then there will be no Falklands war II (Cristina's revenge).

A couple of rubber raiding craft worth of men getting machine gunned on a beach by a 19 year old Falklander with a gympy and a head full of tales about "Argies" being mean to his grandad is not an invasion.

[Moogie]

Unless the Argentinian Marine corps has genetically modified it's men to fly or indeed swim then there will be no Falklands war II (Cristina's revenge).

A couple of rubber raiding craft worth of men getting machine gunned on a beach by a 19 year old Falklander with a gympy and a head full of tales about "Argies" being mean to his grandad is not an invasion.

You do know that the Argentinians have their own Marine Corps complete with landing craft etc? And any defense will not be carried out by plucky locals but rather by the 1000 odd soldiers Britain has garrisoned there.

[Elvis jaffacake]

You do know that the Argentinians have their own Marine Corps complete with landing craft etc?

I'm aware Argentina has a Marine corps, I'm also aware they have 2 "amphibious" capable ships an old style LKA amphib cargo ship (plus 2 more of the class they could probably get back into frontline service) and a modified British (ironically enough) Type 42 destroyer.

And any defense will not be carried out by plucky locals but rather by the 1000 odd soldiers Britain has garrisoned there.

The FIDF is not the same thing it was in 82, they have spent a lot of time, effort and money making it a quality outfit.
They are trained by a cadre of cabbage patch kids.
Back then they had rifles and a couple of Gimpies, now they have mortars, HMG, WIMIK Land Rovers and even guys trained as snipers.

It's members of the FIDF who carry out patrols in the arse end of the islands...if anyone is coming in they'll be the ones to see it and react first more then likely.

[rebellin]

The President of Argentina has instructed her Foreign Minister to file a complaint with the United Nations against Great Britain's militarization of the South Atlantic as a "grave risk to international security" in this time of global crises.

Argentine President: British Militarization Threatens Peace | LaRouche Irish Brigade

[sidney higginbottom]

The President of Argentina has instructed her Foreign Minister to file a complaint with the United Nations against Great Britain's militarization of the South Atlantic as a "grave risk to international security" in this time of global crises.

Argentine President: British Militarization Threatens Peace | LaRouche Irish Brigade

she's a half-wit if thinks its going to anywhere (the raw facts being that in broad terms the current British force in the South Atlantic is is the same as its been for 30 years - four fighters, an infantry company, a 1000ton patrol ship, a Destroyer/Frigate, and, about half the time, an Attack submarine), the cynical view of course is that she doesn't care, all she needs to do is the beat the Malvinas drum and her electorate will forgive pretty much anything.

the cynical British reply was that until 1982 the UK's military presence in the South Atlantic was 30 Royal Marines who spent 90% of their time helping farmers and undertaking mountaineering expeditions on South Georgia, then something made them change their mind...

[likesfish]

You do know that the Argentinians have their own Marine Corps complete with landing craft etc? And any defense will not be carried out by plucky locals but rather by the 1000 odd soldiers Britain has garrisoned there.

The modified transport is an old British that they "modified" by stripping the missile launchers because we wouldn't sell them any more missiles

[Dunlin3]

The strategic danger according to Gen Mike Jackson is that the Argentinians bomb the runway at Stanley and leave the islands cut off by air, then attempt an invasion.

I cant see it myself, their forces are vastly smaller then 82 and still outdated.

If they bombed Stanley they'd be hitting the wrong airfield! Given the early warning capabilities, the air defence assets already there and capacity of the Argentinians to launch a sustained air attack this scenario is unlikely.

[sidney higginbottom]

I cant see it myself, their forces are vastly smaller then 82 and still outdated.

while that is certainly true, Jacksons fear has some basis.

the Argentines have about 60 fast jets - in a magic mix of Mirages, Super Etendards and 30 Skyhawks. the Skyhawks are the most modern, being from the mid-80's and being designated A-4AR. now, it is believed that most of the Skyhawks and about 15 of the others are somewhere between airworthy and operational - the issue is one of spares, maintainence and pilot flying hours. if, as an example, the Argentines could put 30 aircraft over MPA (and we think perhaps 40 - 45 are airworthy), the truth is that not all of them could/would be shot down - there simply wouldn't be enough fighters in the air to do so.

is it a long shot - yes, it is. is it possible that the AirSearch radars on the FI and GCHQ would notice the inevitable build up requred for such a mission - yes, it is. however in 1982 Argentina attacked the soveriegn territory of a country with two aircraft carriers, 40-odd escort vessels, 20 nuclear submarines, 40 long-range strategic bombers, 400 nuclear weapons and a standing army of 200,000. that is a long shot.

[DemographicsKilledUlster]

Forget british nuclear subs. One, you can't nuke a Country. Two, they're famous for running aground FFS