Closing the Straits of Hormuz.

[Nebuchadnezzar]

Vice-President Mohammad Reza Rahimi warned that "not a drop of oil will pass through the Strait of Hormuz" if sanctions are widened. The chief of the Iranian navy has recently stated that closing the straits would be "easier than drinking a glass of water". An Iranian naval exercise to practice that action is currently underway . This is an old threat but this time made different by being put forward as a possible response to an embargo on its export of crude oil. Bombast perhaps but an interesting indication of how unhappy they would be over any further moves on sanctions. Will the international community get its act together and finally get serious with the Iranians?

Iran navy chief says closing Gulf really easy | Reuters

[Clanrickard]

They won't try it. They would be blown out of the water in days. It shows though that despite the usual disgraceful behaviour by the Chicoms and Russians the sanctions are working.

[Nebuchadnezzar]

As a further complication Iranian parliamentary elections due in March '12. How might that affect things?

[seabhcan]

They won't try it. They would be blown out of the water in days. It shows though that despite the usual disgraceful behaviour by the Chicoms and Russians the sanctions are working.

How are they working, exactly?

[pinemartin]

They won't try it. They would be blown out of the water in days. It shows though that despite the usual disgraceful behaviour by the Chicoms and Russians the sanctions are working.

What is a Chicom?

[Nebuchadnezzar]

How are they working, exactly?

These recent Iranian statements about blocking Hormuz seem to indicate that a rigorous oil embargo might well bring the Iranians to the table for serious talks.

[firefly123]

Its hard to drink a glass of water when a US aircraft carrier group blows you in to very tiny little pieces.

[Analyzer]

Maybe the regime needs an escalation in the crisis, to make security an issue, and thereby bolster the vote of the more hardline elements.

In which case less aggression might actually make the hardliners more vulnerable.

They might even be planning to dispense with elections completely, and declare a state of emergency.

Never confuse the regime with the will of the people.

[seabhcan]

These recent Iranian statements about blocking Hormuz seem to indicate that a rigorous oil embargo might well bring the Iranians to the table for serious talks.

Its more likely to bring the rest of the world to the table. Given that Iran is already banned from buying things abroad due to sanctions - how do they benefit by sell us oil? We, on the other hand, are dependent on Iranian and gulf oil.

[Nebuchadnezzar]

Maybe the regime needs an escalation in the crisis, to make security an issue, and thereby bolster the vote of the more hardline elements.

In which case less aggression might actually make the hardliners more vulnerable.

They might even be planning to dispense with elections completely, and declare a state of emergency.

Never confuse the regime with the will of the people.

It could work the other way too - suppose an embargo was imposed, their ecconomy will be hit hard, their response may result in an escalation where they do close the Straits(temporarily) and some level of open conflict will ensue, virtually all Iranian oil exports will end and their ecconomy will be crippled. The Iranians are in a weaker position than most realise. Escalation may not work in the regimes favour either.