Is Syria now about to blow?

[Catalpa]

The waves of Revolution sweeping the Arab World have reached Syria today...

Clashes erupt at protests in Syria
Reports of violence as residents of three towns fill the streets in demonstrations against the government.
Protests have erupted in at least three towns across Syria in the most serious case of unrest in decades for a country that has been ruled with strict emergency laws for almost half a century.

Witnesses reported that at least three people had been killed by security forces in the southern city of Deraa on Friday, where anti-government demonstrators had gathered after midday prayers.

The three were reportedly among several thousand people in the city who chanted "God, Syria, Freedom" while accusing president Bashar al-Assad's family of corruption.
Clashes erupt at protests in Syria - Middle East - Al Jazeera English

If this grows the effects are incalculable but the Bashir Assad is very vulnerable if he cannot control this quite fast.

[McDave]

Assad would do well to accede to the demands of his peoples. Syria has many things going in its favour. Two cities going back 6,000 years. A magnificent history. Agreeable people. They've a lot to be proud of. And a lot to offer the world.

However, they also have their problems. A Kurdish population that would most likely wish to secede in due course. And very troublesome relationship with Israel that won't go away until the problem of Israel is settled.

Like other long-term rulers, Assad is probably an anachronism at this stage. However, he is young enough and reasonably in touch with the world. Maybe he can ultimately settle for a figurehead role. But in reality Syria will have to move towards better representative democracy. I think it will still be a state heavily conditioned by a security apparatus. But if Assad can show the Syrian people that he's prepared to move with the times, he might enable a relatively peaceful transition. Syria isn't a basket case like Libya.

[exileinleinster]

this will be a biggie if she blows

[Interista]

But if Assad can show the Syrian people that he's prepared to move with the times, he might enable a relatively peaceful transition. Syria isn't a basket case like Libya.

I agree. Syria is an extremely repressive state and desperately in need of reform at many levels. However, strange though it may sound, Bashar himself is quite popular in Syria. Whether or not he is able or willing to implement the kind of structural changes Syria needs is, however, open to question.

BTW I think it unlikely that Syria will 'blow' any time soon.

[Rep_of_pals]

I doubt if any of this would've been possible with Bush in the White House.

[Catalpa]

Assad would do well to accede to the demands of his peoples. Syria has many things going in its favour. Two cities going back 6,000 years. A magnificent history. Agreeable people. They've a lot to be proud of. And a lot to offer the world.

However, they also have their problems. A Kurdish population that would most likely wish to secede in due course. And very troublesome relationship with Israel that won't go away until the problem of Israel is settled.

Like other long-term rulers, Assad is probably an anachronism at this stage. However, he is young enough and reasonably in touch with the world. Maybe he can ultimately settle for a figurehead role. But in reality Syria will have to move towards better representative democracy. I think it will still be a state heavily conditioned by a security apparatus. But if Assad can show the Syrian people that he's prepared to move with the times, he might enable a relatively peaceful transition. Syria isn't a basket case like Libya.

Bashir should have implemented Reform when the Da popped his clogs...

Continuing with a business as usual approach might have worked so far

- but with an ossified and brittle political structure he is very vulnerable to a build up of steam

- followed by Meltdown....

[McDave]

Bashir should have implemented Reform when the Da popped his clogs...

Continuing with a business as usual approach might have worked so far

- but with an ossified and brittle political structure he is very vulnerable to a build up of steam

- followed by Meltdown....

Yep. The only thing is that unfortunately a more open state would have left it far more open to interference from Israel. Avoiding that scenario is probably the major foreign (and domestic) policy concern of Syria. It's an unpleasant reality for them. I'm sure they'd much rather be advancing their status in the world like Turkey is.

[Thac0man]

Hard to call this one. Who are the opposition in Syria? There is no democratic opposition left in Syria, Assads regime got rid of them all. So whats left to oppose him must come from another source. Islamists? Who knows.

I think though a sign of the regime in Syria batoning down might be the removal of some resident and thus far tolerated foriegn Jihadists or Terrorist groups. If there is stability, Assad will not want internal bad boys getting lose and causing havoc.

Assad however I think can reform and thus avert civil war. But he will only do it if he has too. If he reads the situation wrong, it could all blow up. Assad has talked about and promised reform. Maybe its about time he delivered.

On a related issue, how Assad and his regime acts will have implications for Syrian relations with Turkey. Erdogan may talk out of both sides of his face, or say one thing and act another way, but support for a regime that openly kills those who protest or raise their voices would be impossible for Ankhara to maintain. Assad will thus lose an ally.

[MrBananagrabber]

Twitter atweet with reports of Syrian army having killed 5 protesters in a mosque in Daraa...

[Southern man]

Apparently William Hague made a speech today , predicticing many more 'revolutions' in the region and further afield . He mentioned Zimbabwe . He also suggested these events are , historically speaking , bigger than 911 and the banking crisis .
He must know something we dont .