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  1. #331
    Catalpa Catalpa is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by davidcameron View Post
    I doubt that Israel will attack Iranian nuclear facilities because it would then be showered with conventional missiles by the Iranian military, Hamas and Hezbollah. Therefore, Iran doesn't need a nuclear bomb to wipe Israel off the map.
    They have not got enough missiles to seriously hurt Israel

    The Israelis are confidant that deaths would be in the low hundreds as they have a very sophisticated civil defense system and an increasing level of anti missile batteries

    + its an open secret that US Military anti missile teams are on station in case this goes Live ...

    Hamas is unlikely to go to an all out war on Israel as they know they will come off 2nd best

    They have already counted themselves out anyway

    Hezbollah will also have to factor in what they could gain from such actions too?
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  2. #332
    southwestkerry southwestkerry is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by L'Chaim View Post
    This thread is nearly two years old and the war hasn't come yet. An old folks home full of old dears could have knitted enough jumpers and scarfs to cloathe an army stationed in the coldest of climates since this thread started.
    +1 indeed some here are waiting for the day just so as they can say, 'told you so'
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  3. #333
    davidcameron davidcameron is online now

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    Quote Originally Posted by Catalpa View Post
    They have not got enough missiles to seriously hurt Israel

    The Israelis are confidant that deaths would be in the low hundreds as they have a very sophisticated civil defense system and an increasing level of anti missile batteries

    + its an open secret that US Military anti missile teams are on station in case this goes Live ...

    Hamas is unlikely to go to an all out war on Israel as they know they will come off 2nd best

    They have already counted themselves out anyway

    Hezbollah will also have to factor in what they could gain from such actions too?
    This speculation has been going on for years. If the Israelis were going to attack, they would have done it by now, wouldn't they? It is getting very boring.
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  4. #334
    Pat Gill Pat Gill is offline

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  5. #335
    Old Mr Grouser Old Mr Grouser is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by davidcameron View Post
    This speculation has been going on for years. If the Israelis were going to attack, they would have done it by now, wouldn't they? It is getting very boring.
    It's too serious to be boring. The conflict won't be restricted to Iran and Israel.

    Just read the details of this story here - Russia expecting attack on Iran by summer

    If there was war in Iran then Russia could claim that the stability of the southern Caucasus was threatened; and re-occupy parts of Georgia saying it had a need to secure it's communications with Armenia,

    Russia already has a garrisons in Armenia and both of Georgia's two breakaway-statelets, Abkhazia and Ossetia.

    A big chunk of Georgia's population isn't Georgian, and those non-Georgian ethnic minorities, the Armenians in particular, would welcome a redrawing of the Georgia's boundaries. New borders might give Armenia frontiers with Abkhazia and Russia, perhaps even a Black Sea coastline.

    You will recall that when in Octber 1956 Britain and France invaded Egypt the Russians used the opportunity to re-occupy Hungary - remaining there until 1989.
    Last edited by Old Mr Grouser; 10th April 2012 at 01:20 AM.
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  6. #336
    FireWolf FireWolf is offline

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    Quote Originally Posted by davidcameron View Post
    This speculation has been going on for years. If the Israelis were going to attack, they would have done it by now, wouldn't they? It is getting very boring.
    I knew a guy several years ago, who got himself Israeli citizenship and moved to Israel. Soon after he relocated there, he had to serve in IDF. While in IDF, he wrote me that they are preparing to attack Iran after they finish operations in southern Lebanon. It was several years ago.

    We must understand that Israeli idea of war against Iran is not an all out assault with land troops involved. They don't think about invasion and occupation of Iran as it is impossible for Israel. The whole idea is clearly to launch air strikes that would eliminate Iran's nuclear facilities and probably to neutralize Iran Air Forces and ballistic rocket launchers. In case this cause regional war, Israel would probably then go to defensive position with possible counter offensives. And that's it. I'm sure that IDF HQ already made plans for such intervention.

    However, in political plane, Israel must think about its allies, specially US. Israel can not jeopardize US interests in the region, or US troops. It would be selfish in certain way, and pretty much irresponsible. Israeli position is clear: either international community is going to deal with Iran regarding its nuclear program, or Israel will do it in its own and only possible way.

    On the other hand, the war is already there. Iran has been sponsoring terrorist groups for years, while some of their nuclear scientist were assassinated and Stuxnet damaged their nuclear facilities.

    In my opinion, Iran should not be afraid of Israeli attack as much as of US attack. Israel would just destroy aforementioned targets, as it doesn't have strength for more. US, however would make much greater damage, as US army will not destroy only those targets but entire army facilities, and probably some infrastructure.
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  7. #337
    Ramon Mercadar Ramon Mercadar is online now
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    Preconditions which cannot be met are being set for negotiations. Israel is being supplied with enhanced missile capability. Yassamine Mather deals with these points in the article below. Full text at link.

    On Saturday April 14 Iran will attend talks with six world powers. The US has indicated this is Iran’s “last chance” to avoid military intervention and the Obama administration is taking very specific demands to the talks as preconditions for further negotiations: for example, Iran “must immediately close” a large nuclear facility allegedly built underneath a mountain if it wants to avoid a devastating strike.

    Israel: ready to attack

    Other “near term” concessions to avoid a potential military conflict include the suspension of high-level uranium enrichment and the surrender by Tehran of existing stockpiles of the fuel, according to senior US officials. US secretary of state Hillary Clinton made the usual noises about time “running out for diplomacy”, while expressing “doubts” about whether Iran has any real intention of negotiating a solution. In other words, preparing US public opinion for an attack that is possibly already scheduled. ...

    Meanwhile, the Canadian Centre for Research on Globalization quoted political analyst Ralph Schoenman to the effect that Nato and the US are arming Israel with missile capacity in relation to a “projected and planned attack upon Iran”, According to Schoenman, Italy’s sale of 30 M-346 training jets to Israel is part of these preparations. And the Israeli military has gained access to airbases in Azerbaijan, according to Mark Perry of the journal Foreign Policy:

    “Obama administration officials now believe that the ‘submerged’ aspect of the Israeli-Azerbaijani alliance - the security cooperation between the two countries - is heightening the risks of an Israeli strike on Iran ... senior diplomats and military intelligence officers say that the United States has concluded that Israel has recently been granted access to airbases on Iran’s northern border.” One “senior administration official” is quoted as saying: “The Israelis have bought an airfield … and the airfield is called Azerbaijan.” [1]
    Time is fast running out - It is clear that the Obama administration is preparing US public opinion for war, Yassamine Mather, 12th April 2012 | Hands off the People of Iran (Ireland)
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  8. #338
    Airwave Airwave is offline

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    The Israelis will probably move against Lebanon first as its a more realistic goal.The Idea that Israel can do any serious damage to Iran on its own is just the wet dreams of the ill informed .Israel has not the depth in field for any long drawn out war with anyone thats why its banking on a joint operation with the Americans.as for the so called threat from hamas dont make me laugh the have no air force no tanks no attack helicopters and no standing Army .there rockets have killed 29 Israelis since 2001 which is an average of 3 a year .you would probably stand more of a chance of been hit by lighting .no Lebanon first
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  9. #339
    Trampas Trampas is offline

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    Quote Originally Posted by Airwave View Post
    The Israelis will probably move against Lebanon first as its a more realistic goal.The Idea that Israel can do any serious damage to Iran on its own is just the wet dreams of the ill informed .Israel has not the depth in field for any long drawn out war with anyone thats why its banking on a joint operation with the Americans.as for the so called threat from hamas dont make me laugh the have no air force no tanks no attack helicopters and no standing Army .there rockets have killed 29 Israelis since 2001 which is an average of 3 a year .you would probably stand more of a chance of been hit by lighting .no Lebanon first
    Makes no sense. Why would Israel bother with Lebanon and risk massive civilian casualties ? Iranian civilian casualties are a different matter, and of course nobody will believe the Iranian reports.
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  10. #340
    Nebuchadnezzar Nebuchadnezzar is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ramon Mercadar View Post
    Preconditions which cannot be met are being set for negotiations. Israel is being supplied with enhanced missile capability. Yassamine Mather deals with these points in the article below. Full text at link.

    On Saturday April 14 Iran will attend talks with six world powers. The US has indicated this is Iran’s “last chance” to avoid military intervention and the Obama administration is taking very specific demands to the talks as preconditions for further negotiations: for example, Iran “must immediately close” a large nuclear facility allegedly built underneath a mountain if it wants to avoid a devastating strike.


    "Allegedly"?? I presume you are refering to the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant near Qom. The Iranians have acknowleged the existence of this facility for several years(after being caught out about it by the IAEA). In a letter to the Director General dated 21 September 2009, Iran informed the IAEA that -

    “Based on [its] sovereign right of safeguarding … sensitive nuclear facilities through various means
    such as utilization of passive defense systems … [Iran] has decided to construct a new pilot fuel
    enrichment plant (up to 5% enrichment)”.
    In a letter to the agency dated 28 October 2009, Iran stated that -

    “As a result of the augmentation of the threats of military attacks against Iran,
    the Islamic Republic of Iran decided to establish contingency centers for various
    organizations and activities …
    “The Natanz Enrichment Plant was among the targets threatened with military
    attacks. Therefore, the Atomic Energy Organization requested the Passive
    Defence Organization to allocate one of those aforementioned centers for the
    purpose of [a] contingency enrichment plant, so that the enrichment activities
    shall not be suspended in the case of any military attack. In this respect, the
    Fordow site, being one of those constructed and prepared centers, [was]
    allocated to the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI) in the second half
    of 2007.
    Iran has subsequently allowed the IAEA access to the plant.


    Quote Originally Posted by Ramon Mercadar View Post
    Israel: ready to attack

    Other “near term” concessions to avoid a potential military conflict include the suspension of high-level uranium enrichment and the surrender by Tehran of existing stockpiles of the fuel, according to senior US officials. US secretary of state Hillary Clinton made the usual noises about time “running out for diplomacy”, while expressing “doubts” about whether Iran has any real intention of negotiating a solution. In other words, preparing US public opinion for an attack that is possibly already scheduled. ...

    Meanwhile, the Canadian Centre for Research on Globalization quoted political analyst Ralph Schoenman to the effect that Nato and the US are arming Israel with missile capacity in relation to a “projected and planned attack upon Iran”, According to Schoenman, Italy’s sale of 30 M-346 training jets to Israel is part of these preparations.
    The M-346 contract for training jets is the end result of a process that has been going on for years. They will replace old equipment, it is normal fleet replacement and the aircraft are of very limited combat value(none in relation to Iran).



    Quote Originally Posted by Ramon Mercadar View Post
    And the Israeli military has gained access to airbases in Azerbaijan, according to Mark Perry of the journal Foreign Policy:

    “Obama administration officials now believe that the ‘submerged’ aspect of the Israeli-Azerbaijani alliance - the security cooperation between the two countries - is heightening the risks of an Israeli strike on Iran ... senior diplomats and military intelligence officers say that the United States has concluded that Israel has recently been granted access to airbases on Iran’s northern border.” One “senior administration official” is quoted as saying: “The Israelis have bought an airfield … and the airfield is called Azerbaijan.” [1]
    Time is fast running out - It is clear that the Obama administration is preparing US public opinion for war, Yassamine Mather, 12th April 2012 | Hands off the People of Iran (Ireland)
    The Azerbaijani story is old news and it seems that the USA has choked it off as an option.
    Last edited by Nebuchadnezzar; 16th April 2012 at 07:02 AM.
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