Fine Gael should aim to be in Government without the Labour Party (or FF,SF)

[tenderloins1]

At the last election the voters had in effect two blocks presenting themselves as possible governments. Fianna Fail and the PDs or Fine Gael and Labour.
Convinced that the Fianna Fail/PD block was the one that would look after the economy best it was they who got voted in.

At the next election the choice will be to just get rid of the current government, indeed decimate them if the polls are to be believed.
Given the state of the nation Fianna Fail can not present themselves as a party of government.
The electorate are more alienated with Fianna Fail than ever and transfer patterns at the next election are likely to be far more of the 'Anyone but Fianna Fail' nature than ever before.

So the assumption is that we will have a Fine Gael/ Labour coalition.
Yet at the minute the Labour Party are trying to be all things to all people. They also intend not to have a pre election pact with Fine Gael.
No doubt as we've seen in recent weeks the Fianna Fail attack dogs will be out mentioning the differences in policy between Labour and Fine Gael, trying to put some shade of doubt into voters minds.

Its time for Fine Gael to assert the possibility of being in government without Labour (and without Sinn Fein too).
It can be done.
Given the current governments unpopularity they do not need a voting pact with Labour. Pact or no pact Fine Gael will get transfers just because they are not Fianna Fail or the Greens.

At the minute FG have 52 seats, short 31 seats.
Michael Lowry would undoubtedly support them and maybe another independent or two.

Below a list of 22 possible seat gains for Fine Gael. Some are far more likely than others and there may be others that haven't been listed.
Its an outside chance, but this is the first time ever Fine Gael are the largest party, they should be going for an overall majority.

Carlow-Kilkenny
Cavan-Monaghan
Cork East
Cork NC
Cork NW
Dublin Central
Dublin MW (2 seats)
Dublin North
Dublin NW
Dublin SE
Dun Laoghaire
Galway West
Kildare North
Kildare South
Limerick
Longford-Westmeath
Louth
Mayo
Meath East
Sligo Leitrim North
Waterford

[Fingal MCC]

I'm not going to get into predicting constituencies but to answer your thread topic, of course FG should and are aiming to be in government without any support, if possible.

A Dail majority is 83 which is a big ask of any party but a potential gain of 31 seats by FG (currently on 52 seats) is not impossible however unlikely.

The independence of FG is essential in my opinion. We no longer require pre election support deals on 30% in the opinion polls nor do we need it on 52 seats. I would be of the opinion that FG fight any election on its own merits and hope that the policy positions that we have created, along with a very positive front bench convince the electorate that we are ready and capable of forming government on our own.

While I would be very open to any deal with Labour after an election, I am unconvinced of Gilmore and most importantly, certain that their lack of policies on all but everything would prove troublesome.

What has been proven over the last few decades of FF government is that interest groups should have no hand, act or part of any political party.

[Endoftheworldasweknowit]

The above is a recipe for another Fine Gael melt down. If FG has learnt anything from the Fitzgerald era its that when your represent your party as something its not you prosper.
In other words FG thrived becasue it appealled to the urban middle classes as it rolled out the liberal agenda. The reality is that FG has become the rural opposition and Labour the urban opposition. There's little in terms of differnece between FG policy and FF in relation to savingthe banks, cutting public services and numbers who are by and large an urbanised workforce. Its shows a fundamental lack of understanding of urban thinking to presume that urban voters will flock to a FG where rural based deputies like Michael Ring, Enda Kenny, Billy Timmons, Fergus O'Dowd dominate in the shadow cabinet or on the airwaves.
Voters support FG because they're more moral than FF not because of any supposed policy difference. The error of suggesting coaliton with SF shows the level of detachment of FG from the electorate. Suggesting a go it alone policy will bring extra support for FG will backfire in favour of FF

[cd27]

The Labour party are living in fantasy land not recognising the need for cuts, they are just as irresponsible as FF and should be attacked

[droghedasouth]

The above is a recipe for another Fine Gael melt down. If FG has learnt anything from the Fitzgerald era its that when your represent your party as something its not you prosper.
In other words FG thrived becasue it appealled to the urban middle classes as it rolled out the liberal agenda. The reality is that FG has become the rural opposition and Labour the urban opposition. There's little in terms of differnece between FG policy and FF in relation to savingthe banks, cutting public services and numbers who are by and large an urbanised workforce. Its shows a fundamental lack of understanding of urban thinking to presume that urban voters will flock to a FG where rural based deputies like Michael Ring, Enda Kenny, Billy Timmons, Fergus O'Dowd dominate in the shadow cabinet or on the airwaves.
Voters support FG because they're more moral than FF not because of any supposed policy difference. The error of suggesting coaliton with SF shows the level of detachment of FG from the electorate. Suggesting a go it alone policy will bring extra support for FG will backfire in favour of FF

Fergus O'Dowd is from Louth, which could never be described as rural.
Louth is dominated by Drogheda and Dundalk, or Dundalk and Drogheda if you prefer, towns which have traditionally had more in common with Lancashire mill towns than market towns like Navan.

BTW, in a 12 seat Drogheda council, FG have 4 seats and the LP only 2 because of typically inept electoral management by the LP.

Billy Timmons dominating the shadow cabinet or the air waves???

Interesting that you describe the FG front bench as a "shadow cabinet".
Clearly, deep down, you recognise we have the ability to run the country on our own.

[red-365]

BTW, in a 12 seat Drogheda council, FG have 4 seats and the LP only 2 because of typically inept electoral management by the LP.

For Labour, particularly in constituencies like Louth, this local election was all about identifying strong candidates - good vote-getters - who could potentially win a Dail seat.

Three poll-toppers in county council elections in the Drogheda area is a great result, especially when you beat one political dynasty - the O'Dowds -into third place, and another - the Byrnes - into the also rans.

[Endoftheworldasweknowit]

Fergus O'Dowd is from Louth, which could never be described as rural.

Billy Timmons dominating the shadow cabinet or the air waves???

Interesting that you describe the FG front bench as a "shadow cabinet".
Clearly, deep down, you recognise we have the ability to run the country on our own.

We'll beg to differ on the socio make up of Louth, its news to me that Seamus Kirk sees himself as an urban TD. I would have thought that any opposition would see their front bench as shadow cabinet, you're surely not suggesting that spokespersons would be dropped because they're not up to it if the party gets into government?
FG they ran the country on their own for all of 8 weeks in 1987 after Spring walked out and before Haughey returned and they haven't been needed to do so since! I'd love to see FG have a go at looking for an overall majority,they'd discover a few home truths about transfers from other parties

[smitchy2]

That should certainly be its aim at the next election.
I only think they could get that far with a more charismatic leader.
Still I certainly think Enda could delver them 70 seats +.

Between them Labour & FG will have 90-100 seats in the next election.
Although these parties are far apart on some economic views, a government with an overall majority is needed for stability.
Labour have grabbed onto Brutons zero budgeting idea (something FF still cannot comprehend) and they have a joint health plan which are 2 big area of reform that are needed in the country.

It would be great to think that Labour could become the 2nd biggest party and create a true opposition on the left against a FG govt with a centre-right twinge.