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About LinkBacksI would be interested in your thoughts. If Fine Gael's predictions are way off the mark, will Enda Kenny get the push?
I would be interested in your thoughts. If Fine Gael's predictions are way off the mark, will Enda Kenny get the push?
He should certainly begin preparations for departure if they don't do well. Not a sudden departure though because that would smack of defeat imo.
As the great warrior poet Ice Cube once said, 'if the day does not require an AK, it is good.'
Even if that transpires, they will certainly be the largest party of local-govt and they will try to pass that of as a victory. One of the quirks of our electoral system is that the polls could be right but FG could still lose a seat in East to Labour. That could be portrayed by anti-Kenny commentators in the media to portray the results as a blow to his leadership. tink the biggest winners in these elections will be Labour, which on present numbers will double its 1st preferences on 2007, but their ability to capitalise on this will be damaged by a lack of candidates.
Originally Posted by Ultimate Independent
Which FG predictions of "Big Gains" are you referring to? Aside from the two by-elections, FG are predicting to hold their current Euro seats and add at 10 seats or so at local government level. So it is hardly a prediction of big gains.
I think there are a few possible narratives to come out of these elections. As FT says, a significant one will be if FG overtakes FF in the popular vote.
But looking at the figures I think Labour have much greater potential to gain in these elections than FG. Labour have a good shot at tripling their seats in the Euro parliament. They also have potential to add significantly to their number of council seats. That said, I believe FG have a better shot at both by-elections than Labour. And of course FG will remain the larger party, almost everywhere bar Dublin City Council.
I remember all this chatter about Kenny since he was elected. In 2004 and 2007 posters were asking what results would force Kenny out. It is a nonsense question as FG has continued to grow at each election Kenny has been leader. None of the other parties can boast this.\
So to the OP, what level of results for FF would force Cowen out, what level of results for Labour would force Gilmore out, what level of results for the Greens would force Gormley out and what level of results for SF would force Adams out. Aside from the Cowen/FF question, I think all these questions are as nonsense as your FG question.
As much as I would like to se the back of Kenny, I think it's important to set realistic expectations for FG in the elections.
In the two by-elections, FG should pick up both seats. Lee is a shoo-in in DS and will the FG support base in DC is quite small, the poor quality of candidates in the field has put Donohoe in pole position.
In the Euros, FG should obviously hold what they have, but it's difficult to see where they can make gains. The only real opportunity is South, where the candidates have divided the constituency. So while a gain is still unlikely, an overall loss should see the end of Kenny, subject to other results.
In the locals, FG has already overtaken FF as the biggest party with defections etc. They start with a base of just over 300 sitting councillors. This is where the party would expect to see sweeping gains. 400 councuil seats is a realistic benchmark, with the PDs no longer standing and recent opinion polls. Anything about that and Kenny is probably (and regretably) secure, but where they to gain under that number, then the knives might well be out.
The Mahon Tribunal found Olivia Mitchell to have received an inappropriate payment from Frank Dunlop at the time of the 1992 Election. F.G. Gael has taken no action against her.
ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha!
Keith you are so funny! How many times now have you predicted Kenny's demise?
Everyone recognises FG will be fighting to hold 5 MEP seats. Not even the most idealistic FG supporter sees the party getting 400 seats or even close to it. "Realistic benchmark" my @ss. But a good effort to talk up FG's prospects, but I'm afraid your credibility as an analyst on these boards disappeared years ago.
I think the talk of getting rid of Kenny is a complete distraction at this stage. What we need to concentrate on is getting rid of Fianna Fail as soon as possible. They only ones who can force them out are the Greens and we should not give them an excuse by raising the spurious issue of the FG leadership.
When the votes are in the one indisputable political fact will be that the government has lost the support of the people. We should all unite then around the demand for a general election.
Some time ago I had a wager (for charity) with an FFer about who would go first, Bertie or Enda. Of course the FFer welched on the bet. Is it time for Round II?
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I fully accept this, I also believe that FF are fighting to hold their four seats, nevertheless a loss for either party would be a very poor result. Think of the optics for FG, who are claiming to now be the biggest party in the country if they lost a seat.
If FG arte not targetting 400 seasts, it shows either a lack of confidence or lack of understanding of previous results. In 2004 the party took 293 seats from 27.6% of the poll. The recent Irish Times opinion poll (the one that FG supporters her would have us believe is the most accurate) has FG on 38%. If the party gets the same vote to seat ratio as they got five years ago, then they will be over 400 seats.Not even the most idealistic FG supporter sees the party getting 400 seats or even close to it. "Realistic benchmark" my @ss. But a good effort to talk up FG's prospects, but I'm afraid your credibility as an analyst on these boards disappeared years ago.
It's also worth remembering that FG has done much better in local elections than in General Elections, as the electorate has used the locals to provide a mid-term wake-up call to the government in both 1999 and 2004. In such a scenario this time out (when the electorate has far more justification to punish the government), FG should be looking at taking over 40% of the vote and easilly pass the 400 councillor target.
The Mahon Tribunal found Olivia Mitchell to have received an inappropriate payment from Frank Dunlop at the time of the 1992 Election. F.G. Gael has taken no action against her.
FG will do well.
Not sure why this question is relevant considering the FF leader has said he will not go no matter how badly FF do!!
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