Fine Gael will hold its selection convention for Dun Laoghaire tomorrow – Tuesday, May 30th. The four nominees are Councillor John Bailey, Councillor Marie Baker, Seán Barrett and Councillor Eugene Regan.
Fitzpatrick’s Castle Hotel, Killiney @ 8pm
Any speculation on who the successful nominee(s) will be? And their electoral chances in Dun Laoaghire?
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There is defintiely one seat there, however, 2 seats which is the target is much more problematic. For sure ff/pd will lose one of their 3 seats but for FG to take 2 seats then either both FF and the PDs will both have to lose a seat or Ciaran Cuffe would have to lose. With Sean Barrett on the ticket they have a realistic prospect of pulling this off, however, I wonder if a 3 candidate strategy is the best method for pulling this off. I am sure if FG HQ had their way there would only be 2 candidates but local factors probably dictate the need for 3. Dun Laoighre is historically one of the most volatile od constituenices so for FG to pull off 2 seats is not fiction but quite who is going to lose out is anyones guess at the moment.Originally Posted by David Cochrane
Well they are gaurenteed to take Fiona O'Malleys seat.
I reckon with a decent candidate they would take Barry Andrews aswell.
Hanafin, Gilmore and Andrews are safe. O'Malley is finished and Cuff will be under serious pressure if Fine Gael get their act together.
As regards the convention, its likely Barrett and Bailey will come through comfortably with there being a serious fight between Baker and Regan for the third spot.
It's going to be tight. Regan is a strong performer as a speaker, which could sway some votes on the night - there's several undecideds still. The latest news is that Marie Baker has agreed to pull out.
The directive is likely to be 'select two,' with no two candidates coming from the same ward. This basically sends Barrett through without breaking a sweat - which is fortunate for him, as there's a fair bit of bad feeling towards Barrett within the organisation as a result of his 'retirement' in 2002. So it's likely to be a straight shoot-out between Bailey and Regan for the other slot.
Both have good block-votes, with Bailey slightly in the lead (his advantage was depleted somewhat by a decision to bar new members from outside the constituency from voting) though it's far from conclusive. It comes down to two questions - which one can get their block vote out; and which one can win over Baker and Barrett's people. Nothing is certain, but if I were the betting type, I'd predict Regan to shade it. He's got a bit more ability as a speaker, has a good CV, and has yet to lose an election.
I've already said too much.
- Karl Rove
If this is true Bailey's been shafted.
how so?
If it's the decision to bar new members from outside the constituency to vote, my understanding of it was that it was a head office reccommendation sent to all constituencies, which they left up to the discretion of the members. Bailey didn't have the numbers to override it, so the people listed at a castleknock address that were signed up to stuff the constituency are out of the equation. If it's a bona-fida shafting, he didn't (or couldn't) put up muchof a fight about it.
I've already said too much.
- Karl Rove
Hanafin and Gilmore may be safe - but go look at the 2002 results, take away 1,000 Andrews votes, and see how safe he is. (particularly given that if the Dublin-wide polls were repeated in Dun Laoghaire, FF would lose 3,200 votes.)
Still feeling safe?
"Elite - a small superior group; esp one that has a power out of proportion to its size." (Oxford English Dictionary)
The majority cannot therefore be the elite.
Be fair it was Maximus who said it! Its not like hes any sort of neutral observer
Economic Left/Right: -2.63
Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -3.85
I must declare an interest in this one, being a lukewarm party supporter resident in Kingstown.
I think this one will go down to the wire. The electioneering and convention campaigns that have been fought out by all concerned have to be seen to be believed. There are tribes in the Amazon basin that have lost acres of sheltering rain forest as a result of the paper used by the Dun Laoghaire FG candidates. Its been described as a US Presidential Primary in the making.
The spin that is being put out at the moment is that the preferred candidate ticket is Marie Baker, John Bailey and former cabinet minister and all round bon viveur Sean Barrett. An impressive ticket, with the right balance, Baker providing the gender balance and the Blackrock base, Bailey providing the graft and the vote hoovering ability, Barrett the gravitas and the experience. Or so the story goes.
There is however a fly in the ointment; one Eugene Regan, Councillor from Monkstown, Senior Counsel and endorsee of beautiful people such as Garret FitzGerald, Peter Sutherland and amazingly enough Enda Kenny, or so he claims.
Sean Barrett to his credit has rejected the free run and is standing at convention. The real battle is between Regan and Bailey, chalk and cheese would be putting it mildly.
The rumours doing the rounds out here are amazing; they range from Regan being promised Attorney General by Enda Kenny (bizzare I know) to Regan being shafted because he contradicated His Supreme Highness Phil Hogan at a cumann meeting a few months ago over competition policy. Hell hath no fury then Phil's ego and all that.......
I wouldn't know enough about the respective strength of each camp to call it. Tonight will tell all.
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