Kenny rejects new government from present Dáil -

[Lloyd-Apjohn]

IT depends on the June results - the mental impact of a FF wipeout on a scale it has experienced can't be known - don't forget even at the worst of CJH and Ahern sleaze FF's rating held up but now they are at about 25% tops - that is a situation we have never seen before so if for example FF lost all it's MEPs, even though FF doesn't care a jot about the EU except as a way to fob off failed TDs or a pay to line their pockets, and a massive loss of councillors then when that sort of panic sets in and FFers want to be seen to be the ones who were there at the start of the rebuilding - the younger ones who can cope with a term or two in opposition then the government can crumble pretty quickly and if the Ind realise that they longer they prop up FF the more likely they'll lose their own seat you'll see that focus their mind a lot - that gombeen low life Healy Rae won't get away with being absent for votes much longer - by being absent he effectively votes in favour of the cutbacks. He won't have al eg to stand on defending his no show because if he really gave a sh*t he'd have turned up to vote.

[baldur0300]

Because some of the local pothole-fixer types would have a better chance of keeping their seats running as Independents rather than still attached to a badly-damaged and unpopular brand?

Exactly "a better chance". At the momeng, FF poll ratings would lead to a collapse similar in scale to the 2002 FG results if not worse. In that election, those types of FGers who were known for their work on the ground lost out just as badly as everyone else in the party. There is absolutely no reason to suggest that the same wouldn't happen to any FFer or recently independent FFer. On the other hand, if the government stays afloat there is at least the chance that a sufficient recovery can be made in order to have a proper go come 2012. It makes absolutely no sense than a backbencher who wants to hold his seat, would risk it now.

[adamirer]

Course he wont, FG want an election to gte lots of new deputies in and a 5 year manddate, not to be judged after 2.5 years in 2012...

He'd much prefer a solid gov for 70 FG tds, 30 lab ones that can survive 5 years, than a duct taped together mishmash that might last 2.