seats FG could lose

[naoise]

Since FG hit rock bottom in most constituencies last time it is likely they will have net seat gains at the next election.

There are a few constituencies though where they they could be in trouble holding exisiting seats.

The most likely loss I would say is Donegal SW.
They could be vulnerable though in Galway W, Wicklow, Dublin SC (if Mitchell stays in European Parliament) and holding the Twomey seat in Wexford.

Any other possibilities?

[CrockerJarman]

Since FG hit rock bottom in most constituencies last time it is likely they will have net seat gains at the next election.

There are a few constituencies though where they they could be in trouble holding exisiting seats.

The most likely loss I would say is Donegal SW.
They could be vulnerable though in Galway W, Wicklow, Dublin SC (if Mitchell stays in European Parliament) and holding the Twomey seat in Wexford.

Any other possibilities?

I would concede that Donegal SW will be difficult to hold but I wouldn't say we are in trouble up there yet.

I think we'll hold Galway West and I would expect a strong candidate ticket to be put before the electorate there.

I would hope that we will comfortably hold Wicklow, yet concede that we have some geographic problems with out ticket re. North Wicklow and finally I would expect to hold Dublin SC and hold two seats in Wexford.

[alltheway]

Good Question, hard to know really, you would have to say that twomey seat has to be in danger, galway west i think completly depends on the candidate selected

[Smashey]

I think the PD's new recruit could hurt Twomey in Wexford as could D'Arcy.

There'll definetly be a Fine Gael seat in DSC after the enxt election regardless of what Gay does.

I think Dinny has seen it all up in Donegal although there is the SF threat, I'd be confident, wouldn't know enough about Galway West

[galwaygirl]

Ye'll keep the one in galway west

[CJH]

No chance of FG losing their seat in Wicklow; Timmins actually increased his vote in 2002. No chance of them winning a second seat though

[InEndaWeTrust]

The most likely loss I would say is Donegal SW.
They could be vulnerable though in Galway W, Wicklow, Dublin SC (if Mitchell stays in European Parliament) and holding the Twomey seat in Wexford.

None of these seats are in danger. We increased our vote in Donegal SW in 2002 and will not be conceding to SF. Even if Gay Mitchell does stay in Europe (he probably won't) Catherine Byrne will hold the seat. Cllrs Healy Eames and Walsh (probably) will hold Galway West. Wicklow is safe and I can't see FG not holding those two seats in Wexford. O' Gorman will not be as big a threat to Twomey as people think.

FG will not be losing any of our 32 seats. Gains across the board will be the order of the day.

[Vanilla]

as an outsider I'd say that Kerry North and Donegal Soth West are possible losses for fine gael. They're just the kind of freakish 3 seaters where anything can happen and anyone can lose out. Dick Spring is a case in point from last time

Although in fairness to them, if they held these two seats in 2002 then it would take some beating for them to lose this time

[jcfp3]

Laois/Offaly Enwright could suffer due to re-emerging Flanngan and I hear Parlons house is made of straw.

[Kerrygold]

as an outsider I'd say that Kerry North and Donegal Soth West are possible losses for fine gael. They're just the kind of freakish 3 seaters where anything can happen and anyone can lose out. Dick Spring is a case in point from last time

Although in fairness to them, if they held these two seats in 2002 then it would take some beating for them to lose this time

While I agree that anything can happen in a 3 seater, I don't think Deenihan is in serious danger. Dick Spring deserved to lose his seat, and I would have told you 2 years beforehand that he would lose his seat to SF.