If FG are going to form the next government as the recent opinion poll suggests where are they likely to take seats from FF. I would think they should be tarketing at minimum 10 to 15 seats. A few come to my mind. Louth (Mairead) came up short last time. Dublin Mid West, Dublin North West, Dublin Central. Any thoughts??
Last edited by johnboy; 29th October 2008 at 02:07 PM.
they would want to win one in Kildare south. 2 out of three FFers at the moment, FG dont have an obvious candidate is the only thing though,
Cork NW, Carlow-Kilkenny, Kildare South, Cavan-Monaghan, Dublin SE on a good day ditto DL.
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Originally Posted by aodh_rua
I would have thought Cork E and Cork NC were better bets than Cork NW.
Although Cork NW was once a major target, moving Ballincollig into the constituency probably killed off their hopes of a second seat.
On the original question, you could probably add Sligo-Leitrim N as well.
A significant issue for FG will be increasing the number of transfers obtained from Sinn Fein.
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Economic Left/Right: 0.75
Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -6.36
Aodh, any idea who would FG be running?
If the latest opinion poll's were borne out on election day, FG would gain seats in places they didn't know they had candidates.
Pundits over estimate the power of incumbency against a national swing.
Thats why they always get the number of gains wrong for a gaining party - eg PDs in 02, Labour in 1992 and FG in 07.
FF could loose up to 30 seats based on latest opinion polls. What would really screw them then is their big vote winning ministers would all come in with a reduced vote (around a quota) leaving their running mates stranded. EG is Bertie's vote fell by a couple of hundred, Cyprian would be toast.
If I was an FF strategist I would be very worried.
In Kildare South? All I'll say is we have a fresh new ticket of local election candidates and the next GE runner should emerge from them.
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That's very true. Re target gains from the Government parties, I'd reckon the following:
Louth, Dublin MidWest, Dublin Central, Waterford, Carlow-Kilkenny, Kildare South (candidate required, urgently!), Cork East, Cork North-Central, Cork North-West, Limerick West, Sligo-North Leitrim, Cavan-Monaghan. Outliers that might just be worth a punt are Dun Laoghaire, Meath West, Galway West and Kildare North.
I don't understand why people on here are so obsessed with elections. It makes no difference which of the corporate parties has the majority in the dáil.
Oh shut up!
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