Fine Gael and Dublin South by election

[Allez les blues]

Okay, I know people are probably sick of the various threads on this subject, but they're gone all over the place. I'd like this thread to focus specifically on FG strategy for the DS by-election.

Since the death of Seamus Brennan i've seen the following names bandied about:
Sen Frances FitzGerald.
Sen Eugene Regan.
Cllr. Jim O'Leary.

1: Have any other names been suggested?
2: Am I correct in saying that Frances FitzGerald hasn't even the slightest intention of contesting for a seat there?
3: Does anybody genuinely think that Cllr. O'Leary would be elected, given the obvious hostility that Shatter and Mitchell would have towards him?
4: Is there any prospect of Regan contesting?

Personally I think that a Regan candidacy would be ideal. Firstly, he is electable. Secondly, Shatter and Mitchell would surely chip in enthusiastically secure in the knowledge that he will be a candidate in Dun Laoghaire in 2012.

What do you think??

[NewDub]

I thought fg would be more likely to run an '09 candidte, a councillior or an area rep or what they called there reps. I seen some facebook page a a young rep in the glencullen ward, he seems very impressive to me. Cant remember his name, I think richmond was the surname, but could be wrong. But the point is they shouldnt run a senator.

[Rocky]

I thought fg would be more likely to run an '09 candidte, a councillior or an area rep or what they called there reps. I seen some facebook page a a young rep in the glencullen ward, he seems very impressive to me. Cant remember his name, I think richmond was the surname, but could be wrong. But the point is they shouldnt run a senator.

FG have a very good chance of winning the by-election, so unlike the Greens for example the by-election isn’t simply a chance to get a bit of media attention for a candidate for 2009, but a chance to gain a seat.

At this point I don't know who will get it, but I think both Regan and O'Leary would be strong candidates. I don’t think there is a chance that FitzGerald will go for it.

[NotDevsSon]

This election is Alex White's to lose.

Given

i. The Labour vote in total
ii. The lack of Labour vote in the constituency. (1 TD in decades)
iii. The divisions between White and Culhane,

Labour ain't got a snowballs.

The seat is between FG and FF. None of the other parties has the baseline support necessary to give them a chance.

[jayblue]

Is this seat an FG? Unsure if it is, as would SHatter and Mitchell want a third fg td here, and they have three tds fighting the election in 2012. Nah i doubt it. This seat is between FF pending on the candidate and labour

[grassroots]

i disagree. This is a constituency where personalities or ephermeral issues matter more than service to the electorate. A section of the electorate has swung from FF in 1977 to FGs in the early 1980 to the PDs to Labour back to the PDs and latterly to FF. Previous unknown candidates have garnered big votes in the past.

Alex White is a sort of a media personality & a darling of the liberal elite. Culhane is a spent force and has to play ball to secure his council seat in 2009. Against a field consisting of an earnest but unproven vote getter in Jim O'Leary (assuming he is the FG candidate and a unknown unknown FF candidate, White is a credible candidate.

[NotDevsSon]

Is this seat an FG? Unsure if it is, as would SHatter and Mitchell want a third fg td here, and they have three tds fighting the election in 2012. Nah i doubt it. This seat is between FF pending on the candidate and labour

Labour came in fourth in the general election, with only 10.43%, behind FF on 41.33%, FG on 27.26% and the Greens on 11.06%.

It would take a miracle, starting on 10.43%, to win a seat in a by-election. It would take ALL the Green votes and ALL the PD votes to go to Labour for Labour to overtake FG.

On the numbers, in that constituency, it is a two horse race: FF and FG. In reality FF will drop (that's what happens when you are in government and go into a by-election), FG will increase, as it will take a chunk of the PD vote. It got 1/3 of PD transfers when the PDs were alive.

So Labour and the Greens will be engaged in a battle for third place. With 79% of Green support transferring to FG as opposed to FF getting 20%, and with it being in the Greens' interest for FF to be more reliant on them (thus increasing their power) meaning a loss of a seat by FF is in the Greens' interest, and a FF victory is not in their interest, a chunk of Green votes will likely go to the main non-FF candidate (likely to be FG). Labour transferred to the Greens (35%) then FG (30%) with only 7% going to FF, the momentum is likely to be of the 'anyone but FF' variety, with all parties to varying degrees (Labour, more so than the Greens) is likely to follow the ABFF momentum.

FF is likely to be in the high 30s at best, given that a chunk of FF votes were personal votes and neither big votegetter will be on the ballot paper, as one is dead and the other retiring. (Nor are Kitt's supporters likely to want to help Cowen, given that he shafted their man and led him to leave government.) FG is likely to be at the low 30s at best. Labour is likely to be in the low teens, as are the Greens, with the Greens on low single figures. So it will all hinge on transfers, with the ABFF vote making it difficult for FF to hold the seat.

[Rocky]

The aim of this thread was to discuss FG's strategy in the by-election. Not for people to make stupid one-liners saying so and so will win or so and so will do crap and not back it up with anything.

[NotDevsSon]

FG will be a distant third in the bye-election. May the Lord have mercy on your souls.

Yeah, right.

[yehbut_nobut]

FG will be a distant third in the bye-election. May the Lord have mercy on your souls.

Did martin tell you that?