Fine Gael and Dublin South by election

[KATHY]

I accept that running a candidate whose declared intention would be to run in Dun Laoghaire in 2012 would play into the hands of Fianna Fail. But I still think it is our best option.

I acknowledge that, in an ideal world, we'd run a candidate who'd be in a position to take a third seat for FG at the next general election. But is this realistic? At this point I don't think it is -- not unless there's a phenomenal public and media swing to FG. Even if FG were to attain a 40% figure in a general election we'd need to attract a wide range of transfers.

Is it not the case that the discerning voters of Dublin South would vote for a candidate of Regan's calibre? Could FG not paint the by election as a 'referendum on public services' or something along those lines?

I have never met Jim O'Leary, and I am not a member of FG in Dublin South, so I cannot speak with authority on the usefulness of an O'Leary candidacy. As an outsider who is always readily willing to give an FG person the benefit of the doubt (I'm constantly singing Enda Kenny's praises!), I just can't see Jim O'Leary winning a by election. Were he really a winner he'd have made a better impression at last year's general election. Olivia Mitchell isn't unbeatable, and Alan Shatter hardly has an Obamaesque appeal.

I think we can compare Dublin South and Dun Laoghaire. Olivia Mitchell=Sean Barret. Alan Shatter=John Bailey. Regan and O'Leary, as new County Councillors, faced similar challenges. Regan performed infinitely better than O'Leary.

I really think Regan could be our man for the by election. Or, more to the point, I really think O'Leary would be a bad candidate. It's an election we have to win, or lose on the last count. I dread the prospect of O'Leary being eliminated along with Fiona O'Malley, leaving Maria Corrigan and Alex White to fight it out for the seat.

That’s a bit unfair to O’Leary who was at the time the new guy on the block and up against two heavy hitters from the start. The prospect of FG, who remember were coming from a base of one seat securing 3 was always going to be a big ask, but despite this Jim ran a very energetic campaign and there is no doubt but that Shatter would not have made it without his transfers which were vital . Of the three candidates in DunLaoghaire Regan and Bailey were on more of an even keel, (despite Bailey’s stunt) and this was obviously an advantage to both candidates.

Despite recent boundary changes Regan has stated that his preference would be to remain in DunLaoghaire. For him to move to DS for the by-election, with a view to moving back to DL for the GE would be political suicide and I am sure he knows it. When you consider that previously Brennan and Kitt both attracted a huge personal vote, it really is all to play for for FG, and IMO Jim who already has a reputation of being a very hard working competent Cllr, within the constituency, would be in with a very good chance

[wombat]

I accept that running a candidate whose declared intention would be to run in Dun Laoghaire in 2012 would play into the hands of Fianna Fail. But I still think it is our best option.

I hope this suggestion has originated in FF as its hard to think of a dumber idea and if it has been thought up by some genius in FG's HQ, those of us who want to change the govt. will have to look elsewhere for a lead. Regan is badly needed in DL. Unless a really big hitter comes out of the woodwork, the local organisation in DS should be left to select the candidate. With DL going to a four seater, its going to be very difficult to gain a seat there, DS is really the best chance for gaining a seat, the last thing we need is to sour the local organisation.

[Allez les blues]

I accept the point about Eugene Regan shooting himself in the foot. I suppose it's true that it'd be too easy a sell for FF or Lab if Regan were to stand.

But I don't accept that Jim O'Leary is a candidate that is capable of winning for us. The DS by election is going to be hugely significant: it'll either restore Enda Kenny or it'll put him on an awful footing that will lead to a dreadful local elections result.

Is there any other possible contender? Would Alan Dukes run for FG if he were asked? I know that he has returned to the party hierarchy as director of public policy or something, and he still hangs around Leinster House quite a bit.

In the context of economic difficulties, Alan Dukes'd sell brilliantly on tv. His greatest strength has always been his commanding knowledge and understanding of Irish economics. He is still very much on the national radar, and was one of the best proponents of a YES vote in the Lisbon campaign.

I think Dukes'd be a super candidate. He'd be more telegenic than the Labour candidate -- how about this for a slogan: "Alan Dukes (FG) - whiter than White" -- and his return to the fold'd generate more media interest than an O'Malley candidacy.

What do you think?

[Rocky]

I accept the point about Eugene Regan shooting himself in the foot. I suppose it's true that it'd be too easy a sell for FF or Lab if Regan were to stand.

But I don't accept that Jim O'Leary is a candidate that is capable of winning for us. The DS by election is going to be hugely significant: it'll either restore Enda Kenny or it'll put him on an awful footing that will lead to a dreadful local elections result.

Is there any other possible contender? Would Alan Dukes run for FG if he were asked? I know that he has returned to the party hierarchy as director of public policy or something, and he still hangs around Leinster House quite a bit.

In the context of economic difficulties, Alan Dukes'd sell brilliantly on tv. His greatest strength has always been his commanding knowledge and understanding of Irish economics. He is still very much on the national radar, and was one of the best proponents of a YES vote in the Lisbon campaign.

I think Dukes'd be a super candidate. He'd be more telegenic than the Labour candidate -- how about this for a slogan: "Alan Dukes (FG) - whiter than White" -- and his return to the fold'd generate more media interest than an O'Malley candidacy.

What do you think?

I don't think there is a chance that Dukes would run. If he was going to run in an election, he would have run in Kildare South last time.

I think you’re overly harsh on O'Leary. He was on the ticket with two very strong experience FGers, both of whom are currently on the front bench, and was seen as the third FG candidate and he got a decent vote. He's well known and well liked in Dublin South and I do think he would be a strong candidate who could take the seat and he is the obvious choice. Regan would be good as well, but the fact that he ran last time in DL and it will be correctly seen that he is going to run there again in 2012 won’t help him.

[Simbo67]

People who are proposing Regan must be off their rockers? Why would he switch constituency when he is known in DL and came damn close to a seat? And what the hell?! Ok, so we can't hold onto 3 seats in the next general election so lets get someone who will dump the constituency before it?!
O'Leary really has to be the presumptive candidate and I suspect even if OM and AS are not overly happy at the idea of 3 FG TD's (as any sitting TD would be), that is going to be outweighed by the need for FG to win. I suspect Enda et al will be spending a whole lot of time and money in Dublin South.

[CorkHurler]

. I suspect Enda et al will be spending a whole lot of time and money in Dublin South.

Lets hope so.

[Weird and Gilly]

. I suspect Enda et al will be spending a whole lot of time and money in Dublin South.

Lets hope so.