How much longer will Kenny last?

[CJH]

People seeing the title of this might assume this is a trolling thread, but I'm completely serious. I believe that the departure of Bertie and his replacement with a new Taoiseach and leader of Fianna Fail will ultimately result in Fine Gael removing Enda Kenny as their leader.

Kenny was elected as a sort of FG version of Bertie, after the debacle of the Noonan years. He was portrayed as an everyman, the sort of guy you would like to have a pint with in the pub. This was fair enough in comparison with FF's leader. With the growing significance of the Tribunal issues, Kenny was able to attack Ahern and the government on this issue, and leave to the side attempts to better the government on policy, something with which he has always struggled.

However, politics is about to get a lot more hard edged. It's reasonable to assume that Cowen will be the new leader. We've already seen that in the Dail he has destroyed Kenny without even breaking sweat. Apparently after his recent performance, a number of FG TDs were uneasy about how Kenny would perform against Cowen when Bertie was gone. We're about to find out.

I don't think Enda will be able to cut it. It will become increasingly clear that he is unable to handle Cowen's aggressiveness, sharpness and attention to detail in terms of policy. He is old compared to Cowen, and has already had one election in which to prove himself. I believe that over the coming months there will be a groundswell of feeling with FG favouring the sharpness of Richard Bruton or the debating strength of Brian Hayes. There is a lot of affection and respect for Kenny within FG - I don't believe he will be shafted (though when you conside how they treated John Bruton, you never know). I think he will be given a chance to go with dignity within plenty of time of the next election.

But I think that ultimately, Bertie's departure will seal Enda's fate.

[HanleyS]

Longer than Ahern. That's for sure.

[CJH]

Longer than Ahern. That's for sure.

He won't last next or near to 14 years. THAT'S for sure.

[retep]

I think the main thing Enda Kenny had in his favour was the growing unpopularity of Bertie and discontent with the croneyism of his long standing cabinet.

If, as hoped or expected, Cowen (or whoever), does a decent clean out I think FF's popularity will soar again to the detriment of FG and I could see Cowen calling a snap election within a year when the polls deem it favourable, which would herald the end of Enda.

[unaligned]

I sort of agree that in an odd sort of way, Ahern's departure will bring Kenny's perceived weaknesses into sharper focus. If there was a General Election around the corner then they would be wise to keep Kenny where he is as I suspect that Cowen will appeal to the core Fianna Fail constituency and not much else.

But because we are four years out from an election, I imagine the prospect of Kenny being slapped around by Cowen for the next four years isn't mightily appealing. That said, I don't think there is much of an appetite to oust Kenny simply because there is no obvious successor. Varadkar is a loose cannon, Hayes is percieved as too smarmy and Bruton doesn't seem to want the job and doesn't represent much of a new departure in any case.

[Maximus]

People seeing the title of this might assume this is a trolling thread, but I'm completely serious. I believe that the departure of Bertie and his replacement with a new Taoiseach and leader of Fianna Fail will ultimately result in Fine Gael removing Enda Kenny as their leader.

Kenny was elected as a sort of FG version of Bertie, after the debacle of the Noonan years. He was portrayed as an everyman, the sort of guy you would like to have a pint with in the pub. This was fair enough in comparison with FF's leader. With the growing significance of the Tribunal issues, Kenny was able to attack Ahern and the government on this issue, and leave to the side attempts to better the government on policy, something with which he has always struggled.

However, politics is about to get a lot more hard edged. It's reasonable to assume that Cowen will be the new leader. We've already seen that in the Dail he has destroyed Kenny without even breaking sweat. Apparently after his recent performance, a number of FG TDs were uneasy about how Kenny would perform against Cowen when Bertie was gone. We're about to find out.

I don't think Enda will be able to cut it. It will become increasingly clear that he is unable to handle Cowen's aggressiveness, sharpness and attention to detail in terms of policy. He is old compared to Cowen, and has already had one election in which to prove himself. I believe that over the coming months there will be a groundswell of feeling with FG favouring the sharpness of Richard Bruton or the debating strength of Brian Hayes. There is a lot of affection and respect for Kenny within FG - I don't believe he will be shafted (though when you conside how they treated John Bruton, you never know). I think he will be given a chance to go with dignity within plenty of time of the next election.

But I think that ultimately, Bertie's departure will seal Enda's fate.

Lets hope they dont do anything too rash. Kenny is the best of the bunch over there. Would hate to see them change horses mid-tilt.

[MookieBaylock]

The next FG leader is all but decided...

and Kenny will not be shafted - trust me on that

[Fr. Hank Tree]

If, as hoped or expected, Cowen (or whoever), does a decent clean out I think FF's popularity will soar again to the detriment of FG and I could see Cowen calling a snap election within a year when the polls deem it favourable, which would herald the end of Enda.

Bring on Brian Cowen.

Probably the most overrated mnister in the history of the state.

[Keith-M]

Kenny's biggest (only?) selling point was that he would be a change of Taoiseach. Now FF have trumpted him on that, it's hard to see him lasting out the year unless the creeping inertia which seems to have strangled FG in recent years means that no one can be bothered to move against him.

[badboy2]

I wouldn't trust you to beat a one leged man in an arse kicking competition, but Kenny is safe as houses.

He has persued a strategy that has seen a supposedly invincible Teflon coated Taoiseach chucked out in disgrace.

Oh what fun we will have now as each contender for the leadership of FF will be subjected to a little bit of financial scrutiny.