Dublin Lord Mayor

[PrinceAbels]

OK, it's a bit early and the Labour guy seems to be doing a good job. Well, compared to the last gimp Royalty Brady that was there. However, the deal of the Democratic Charter means that next year FG will have the Mayor and deputy mayor from summer 2005 to summer 2006.

I'm prompted to ask this because the Phoenix maintains that Tormey, Cosgrave and Bryne didn't follow the party line on the estimates so are they looking to mutiny?

With the last date for the general election to be May 2007, this means whovever has those positions are likely to be in poll positions for nominations for Dail seats due to the exposure it will bring. Of course, the Labour folks in the hot seats from 2006 to 2007 will be in the prime slots, and that might explain why it was the two guys that are there at present. Neither of whom seem that likely locationwise to run for the Dail.

Anyway, back to FG. They have 10 councillors

Breen DNC - Leader of the group ran in '02 in DNC, but with that reduced to 3 seater no chance of ousting Bruton
Bryne DSC - ran in '02, and possible before that
Cosgrave DNE - not sure if she ran in a GE, but her old man did
Donohue DC - one of the young turks, but DC is a long term project
Creigton DSE - one of the young turks, and in a prime location for advancement
Flanagan DNC - one of the young turks, but same problem as Breen in DNC, part of Artane in DNW and DNE
Gillen DSE - one of the young turks, and in a prime location for advancement
Martin DSC - co-opted to replace Mitchell, surprised by holding seat at expense of fellow FG councillor and group leader McGinley, but is she interested in running in GE?
O'Muiri DNC - one of the young turks, but same problem as Breen in DNC, part of Artane in DNW and DNE
Tormey DNW - periennal runner, hasn't yet seen an election he doesn't like to run in since '89!

So, for the Mayoralty, I'm ruling out the following for being too young and also I think Royalty soured people against people who are too young and inexperienced and too obviously on the make. Donohue DC Creigton DSE Flanagan DNC Gillen DSE -
Martin DSC O'Muiri DNC

That leaves us with Breen DNC - Bryne DSC - Cosgrave DNE - and Tormey DNW as possibles. Now, I'm guessing that there will be a vote amongst the group of 10 to decide who gets it with 6 being a majority or 5 if 1 abstains. And the potential mayor could use the deputy position as a teaser for support from a wing voter.

I think also a north south divide and possible a male/female might be preferred. Now here is gets interesting, I think none of the mayoral candidates will like to be deputy mayor to some else, so that means none of them will work together as a team.

It might be presumed that Breen has himself, Flanagan, Donohue and OMuiri in the bag. since they are all co-located. But all another candidate has to do is steal one of those away and the game is up. Tormey might not like to leave his medical practice, so he could be open to supporting someone else. I also think that Martin is not interested in being deputy.

You could see Bryne doing a deal with Flanagan for deputy, with the support of Tormey, and Martin and needing just the support of Gillen or Creighton to get the 5. With maybe Cosgrave abstaining.

Breen might suggest Creighton be his deputy, to have the gender and north/south balance. With himself, Donohue, Omurir, Creighton. and again Flanagan?.

Where will Gillen and Cosgrave go? It's all to play for!

[Jim84]

I assume of the "young turks" will not be Lord Mayor as they don't know the in and outs, standing orders and all the other boring stuff that goes with the job.

So that leaves
Breen, Byrne, Cosgrave, Martin, Torney. I included Martin cause he got those two years with the co-option.

A one in five chance of picking the right person! I reckon one of those "young turks" will be Deputy Lord Mayor.

Probably Gillen or Creigton cause they have the best chance of recapturing a seat, and preventing the Government from winning two the DSE constituency.

As for our Lord Mayor, was very impressed with him outside Baileys the other day but he just isn’t as colourful or interesting as that other fella

[PrinceAbels]

"So that leaves
Breen, Byrne, Cosgrave, Martin, Torney. I included Martin cause he got those two years with the co-option."

Errr... Martin is female and how! True, she did have about a year of on the council with the co-option but so did Flanagan. I'd still rate both as not contenders this time. The next slot 2007 - 2009 though...

[NGTR]

The selection of the next Fine Gael Lord Mayor of Dublin has huge political implications for the next GE. Therefore the next Mayor could and should be a potential Dail candidate and possibly one from a battleground constituency. I don't know if expeience will be the deciding factor so I reckon either Gillen/Creighton or Flanagan could be in line for the job either of them would create decent media interest and such a promotion would line either of them up nicely to take a Dail seat. Perhaps the full Mayor's job is a bit fanciful but the deputy's should be a gimme.

[PrinceAbels]

NGTR, true enough. But it could also be considered that Gillen and Creighton don't require the extra boost of being Mayor, since FG should with a reasonanly run campaign won back at least one seat in DSE.

And Flanagan is no more in a battleground constituency than Breen or O'Muiri, so it could be equally be either of those three. That is presuming you are referring to DNE as a battleground. And Niamh Cosgrave actually is a councillor in DNE. Or Tormey could go if FG think that DNW is doable. Bryne, Martin and Donohue are least likely on this basis as they are in no hoper areas, Martin and Bryne in SC where there already is a TD and Donohue in Central. Unless, Bryne or Martin could jump areas!

Something that was pointed out to me though recently was that being Mayor is a fulltime job, you get paid and have to attend a lot of times. So, how would that work for some of the potentials, especially those that are self-employed and thus unable to take a year off without doing harm to their livelihoods.

[Danny]

Maybe FG will not go for a Cllr based on whether they're from a battle ground constitunecy, instead, maybe they'll go for the best Cllr and raise people opinion of FG Dublin-wide.

[PrinceAbels]

They've only got 10 councillors so they could end up doign both. Also, if you think about it they get two stabs at this. One before an election and once after. All it takes is 4 of them to get togethe in a block to divide up the 4 posts, two terms at mayor and deputy. And promise something else to twos other, and they're done and dusted.

[s]

Would the lads in Mount St and the Exec not play a big role in deciding the next Mayor, especially if there is alot to be gained politically from the office especially with an election on the horizon.

I think it should be a prospective Dail candidate, with regards to the work part of it surely this wouldn't effect Lucinda Creighton, shes a student yeah? I think it would do her profile the world of good to get the job

-also I'm going to get giddy and predict we sneak 2 seats in DSE, the candidates are very different. (Gillen & Creighton)

[apkavanagh]

DNE and DSE are FG's best chances of winning a seat in the City area. It may depend on who gets selected to run in these areas and the choice of Mayor could determine the Convention selections, if they are not held beforehand. I'm going to stick my neck out and guess that Cosgrave will be the next mayor with Lucinda Creighton or Catherine Byrne as Deputy, given that FG should win in DSE but have a fight in DNE, and thus the DNE campaign is the more needful of a mayoral push. If the decision is based on non-electoral concerns (which I doubt, as the non-election candidates can always wait until 2008) then the post could go to Catherine Byrne, who will probably be a candidate but is unlikely to win a seat unless Gay Mitchell stays in Brussels. Breen is another possibilty, mindful of the great result in Clontarf back in June.

[PrinceAbels]

The main difficulty with Cosgrave in DNE is that that side of the FG machine is in decline, she couldn't even get a nomination. She held her seat though, and only by the skin of her teeth. If he'd run for the council, Gavin Doyle would probably be a shoe in. He must be regretting it now. He could probably even have ran in Artane if he'd tried. There again, the fact that Cosgrave is a weak candidate isn't going to stop her from running.

I personally, think that Bryne is the dark horse in all this. If she had a good term as Mayor she could challenge for the last seat, especially if Labour went for 3 candidates, and FF dropped badly with Mulcahy. Is there something about the MAyor and dp have to be from separate wards?