Having failed to get a front-bench position, party supporter today was strongly of the opinion that he'll call it a day at next election. Problem is, they don't have a prominent, city-based successor in CNC. Unless, Joe O'Callaghan thinks he might fit the bill ! I won't sleep tonight !
Who cares - if that's his reaction then he is not a party player and should go and do something else with his life.
The FG party is more important than anyones ego and if he was as good on the front bench as he thinks he was then he would have kept his place. He obviously didn't do a good job at the meeting with EK when he was told he was being dropped.
Allen has been around for a long time and he has to go eventually, so it's up to the FG organisation in Cork to find a good replacement for him. He has been a good TD for FG, although he didn't do a good job as foreign Affairs spokesperson, so it would be sad to see him go, but as I said he has to go sometime, when that is, is up to him and FG have to deal with that.Originally Posted by jerryp
Also Enda has to pick who he believes will be the best people to be on FG’s front bench, he can’t worry about who will leave if they don’t get on it.
"Give us the future, we've had enough of YOUR past, Give us back our country, to live in, to grow in and to love..."
He's 63 and assuming the government lasts its full term will be 68 at the next election. There was always a good chance of him stepping down anyway. In fact, that probably informed Kenny's decision to drop him.
I don't imagine it will be a massive immediate issue for FG in CNC. Kelly wasn't too far off a seat last time and he would pick up the vast bulk of Allen's vote. The second biggest beneficiary would probably be Labour, so overall representation would be unchanged.
Despite Noel O'Flynn's awful performance in the election, the constituency is always likely to have two FF TDs (barring national meltdown). Allen leaving would cement the status quo.
The problem is in the long-term. Dublin has seen the collapse of FG organisation in working class areas and in Cork, this can be seen to an extent in SC. Allen has held the organisation together in the working class areas of South Central and without him there, it could witness the kind of decline that has been seen by FG elsewhere.
However, whether he stayed for one more election or not, this was always going to be an issue for FG at some future point.
My political compass
Economic Left/Right: 0.75
Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -6.36
I always though he looked like the type of guy about to pull a ham sandwich from his pocket
"Be advised, my passport's green / No glass of ours was ever raised / To toast the Queen." Seamus Heaney 1982
"I'm a bit of a green myself" Charles Haughey 1989
Bernard gets a big working-class vote that won't necessarily transfer to other FG candidates. They might hold the seat without him, but their chances of getting a second seat in CNC are gone.
If the groundwork for his successor is tackled in good time before the next election, then this should not be a problem. However, Kelly will definitely be in for a seat next time around, and who knows, maybe the country will be sick, sore and tired of Fianna Fail by then.
There's a similar problem in Limerick East and Michael Noonan, especially if the constituency is re-drawn as a four seater.
A little lesson on geographic and political terms for dummies :
To view links or images in signatures your post count must be 10 or greater. You currently have 0 posts.
If FG could articulate any semi-coherent and credible vision of how Ireland should be, then it wouldn't have to rely on personal appeal of its candidates and anti-FF sentiment to win votes.
LinkBack URL
About LinkBacks
Reply With Quote