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With the constituency boundaries, it would be interesting to see how the parties would fare in a general election.
For instance, in Carlow-Laois, FF would be fancied to get two seats out of four, with FG getting Charlie Flanagan in. FF and FG would then fight for the last seat.
In Cavan-Leitrim, FF would get two, with FG getting one. In Clare, FF would hold their two, with FG holding theirs. In Cork North, FF would get two, FG would also hold two, with Labour likely to win the last. In Cork City, FF would get two, through Noel O'Flynn and Michael Martin, if he stands there, FG one through Bernard Allen, and Labour one through Kathleen Lynch. Dan Boyle might sneak in for the Greens, if they have a good day nationally.
In Cork Rural, FF would get two, through Michael McGrath and Michael Ahern. FG would get two through David Stanton and Simon Coveney, with Labour possibly winning the last. Cork South West would probably see one FF and one FG with Lab and FG fighting out ofr the last seat.
Donegal will see two FF seats, one FG, and a dogfight between FF, FG and SF for the last two seats.
Dublin Central will see FF winning two seats, FG one, Lab one and Tony Gregory holding his.
Dublin North will see FF winning the first two seats, FG holding their one, and Trevor Sargent holding his. The fight will be between FF and Labour for the last seat.
Dublin South could see FF holding their two seats, FG at least one, with the Greens getting the fourth. The fifth will be between FF, FG and Labour.
Dublin South Central will see FF holding their two seats, FG getting one, Labour getting one with Aengus O'Snodaigh and FG fighting out for the last seat.
Dublin South East will see no change, 1 FF 1 FG, 1 Lab (if Ruairi Quinn runs again) and 1 Green.
Dublin South West will see FF getting two, FG getting one, with Labour likely to get the other.
Dublin Mid-West will probably see no change, though Luke Moriarty will be a good bet if Mary Harney does not stand again.
The three-seat Dun Laoghaire borogh constituency will see FF hold one, with Labour holding one and FG holding one.
The three-seat Galway East will see FF hold their two seats to FG's one.
Galway City will return 1 FF, 1 Lab (If Michael D runs again) and 1 FG) while Galway South could return 2 FF and 1 FG.
Kerry will see FF win two seats, FG win two with Sinn Fein likely to take the last.
Kildare North will probably end up no change, while Kildare South will also remain in no change territory. Limerick East will return two FF, Willie will bring in a running mate, to FG's one and Labour's one. Limerick West will stay as is, 2 FF, 1 FG, Longford-Westmeath will also stay no change, 2 FF, 1 FG and 1 Lab, while Louth will also be no change, 2 FF, 1 FG and 1 SF though if it becomes a 5 seater, Labour and the Greens will fight for the last seat.
Mayo will probably stay no change, though Beverly could be back in FF by then. Meath East will probably return 2 FF, 1 FG, and 1 Lab. Meath West will return no change, two FF, 1 FG.The new Rathdown-North Wicklow constituency will be fascinating. FF will get one and possibly two (Dick Roche) FG 1 (if Jim Bailey runs here), and Labour 1 I (either Liz McManus or Eamon Gilmore), Roscommon will probably return 2 FF and 1 FG, with Sligo also returning two FF and 1 FG. Tipperary north will also see no change, 1 FF, 1 FG and 1 Ind, Tipp South will also see no change with FF holding their two seats to FG's one. Waterford will see no change with FF getting two, Labour 1 and FG 1, Wexford will also see no change, FF 2 FG 2 Lab 1, with the new South Wicklow constituency retruning 1 FF, 1 FG and 1 Lab.
Overall, FF will do very well, provided the election is fought on issues and not personalities. They will finish, based on my tallies, with a figure in the high-seventies, early eighties. FG will also rise, thanks to the new boundaries, finishing in the mid 50's, Lab will stay as is, with the PD's Greens, SF and Independents once again obliterated. We could still have a situation by the next election where most of the PD's will be absorbed back into FF, with Jackie Healy-Rae and Beverly Flynn also officially back on board.
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Originally Posted by FutureTaoiseach
